计及连锁故障的暂态稳定概率评估方法

动态安全域的一系列研究成果为解析法在暂态稳定概率评估的应用提供了便利条件。针对负载较重的电网．提出了一种基于动态安全域的计及连锁故障引起系统失稳的暂态稳定概率评估方法，对系统安伞影响较大的线路发生初始故障．交替求解暂态稳定和潮流分布．考虑了失稳以及过载保护动作的概率特性，得到对系统安全影响较大的线路最可能引发的连锁故障路径．进而求得考虑连锁故障引发系统失稳在内的线路不安全概率指标。以IEEE10机39节点系统为例，验证了该方法的可行性和合理性。

Probabilistic Assessment Method Considering Cascading Failures for Power System Transient Stability

A series of research results on DSR （dynamic security region） provide convenient conditions for application of the analytical method in probabilistic assessment of transient stability. For heavy load grids, a DSR-based probahilistic assessment method considering ~aseading failures is proposed in this paper for power system transient stability. For the initial power line fauh that may have signifieant impac：t on system security, based on the probability charac, teristics of the instability and overload protection, ahernative solution of the transient stability and flow distribution is conducted to get the line＇s most likely path which may cause easeading failures. And then the line＇s probability security index is obtained with consideration of the instability caused by cascading failures. Finally, a lest is earried out on the IEEE 10-generator 39-node system to verify the effectiveness and rationality of the proposecl model.