低碳经济范式下能源结构优化程度评价研究

我国的能源瓶颈突出表现为结构性矛盾。本文以能源经济学为理论支撑,从低碳经济发展对能源结构要求的角度,提出了社会经济效益、能源规划效益、环境效益等三个维度,并分析了各个维度的构成要素;综合运用粗糙集理论和AHP法进行指标约简和权值计算,构建了低碳经济范式下能源结构优化程度评价指标体系。在此基础上,对各评价指标设置分级标准,通过未确知测度评价模型对2010年我国10个省份的能源结构优化程度进行多指标综合测度与评价,阐明了该评价方法的科学有效性及评价结果的合理性。

Research on Optimization Degree Evaluation of Energy Structure Under Low-carbon Economy Paradigm

The structural contradictions are mainly shown as the energy bottleneck in China. Based on theory of energy economics, this paper puts forward three dimensions which are social and economic benefits, energy planning benefits as well as environment benefits, from the perspective of requirements of low-carbon economy to energy structure. Analyzing elements of the various dimensions,it identifies twelve measurement indexes and the weight of each index by the theory of rough set, combined with AHP,establishing the low-carbon factor. Based on this, it sets the grading standards, and it carries on comprehensive measurement and evaluation of multi-indexes for optimization degree of energy structure by unascertained measure evaluation model for ten provinces. The results show the indexes, including planning of renewable energy,energy efficiency, carbon dioxide and COD, are important to the optimization degree evaluation of energy structure, not the population or the situation of energy supply to demand, and illustrate thet validity of the approach and rationality of the assessment result.