基于MFGM企业项目链风险元传递研究

为了对企业项目间风险元传递预测进行研究,本文首先提出项目链风险元传递概念及企业项目链风险传递四面体模型,然后以企业项目链风险传递链式结构为切入点,引入灰色预测、傅里叶级数和马尔科夫链理论,构建了马尔科夫—傅里叶级数修正灰色预测模型(MFGM),用来预测项目链式结构的风险元传递,最后以项目工期为风险元,算例分析基于该模型的项目链风险元传递的预测情况,结果表明该模型具有可行性和有效性。

Research of Prediction of Enterprise Projects Chain Risk Element Transmission Based on Markov-fourier Modified Grey Prediction Model(MFGM)

Due to the research of the enterprise projects risk element transmission forecast, the paper proposed the concept of enterprise projects chain risk element transmission and transfer tetrahedron model. Then, based on the chain structure of enterprise projects chain risk transmission, introduction theory of Grey prediction, Fourier series and Markov chain, established the Markov-Fourier modified grey prediction model(MFGM), which is used to predict the risk element transmission of projects chain structure. Finally, taken schedule of projects as a risk element, made a prediction of enterprise projects transmission based on the Markov-Fourier modified grey prediction model, and the results show that the model is feasible and effective.