机组疲劳评估系统模型对中国航司国际航班飞行员疲劳预测的适用性

研究旨在对经典生物数学模型在中国航空公司运营环境下的适用性进行研究。首先在我国航空公司的运营环境下,使用持续绩效测试(CPT)、卡罗林斯卡嗜睡量表(KSS)和机组人员状态检查表(SP)观测飞行员飞行过程中的警觉度绩效和主观疲劳自评。其次使用机组疲劳评估系统(SAFE)模拟并量化了相应的飞行员疲劳。最后比较了SAFE模型预测的机组警觉度值与其疲劳主观自评、客观绩效之间的差异,使用方差分析来探究疲劳影响因子对模型预测和主客观疲劳的影响差异。结果表明：SAFE模型预测机组人员疲劳与其主观疲劳有较强的相关性,整体上模型对机组人员疲劳预测体现了与执勤时长及昼夜节律相关因素的变化趋势,但是连续执勤18h后预测值会偏高。可见随着对该模型验证数据量的增加及调整模型相关参数以适应我国飞行运行环境,该模型将能够作为我国航空公司疲劳风险管理体系(FRMS)预测式危险源识别的客观工具,同时也可为我国本土化生物数学模型的理论研究与工程应用提供借鉴。

Research on the applicability of SAFE model to the fatigue prediction of Chinese airlines" international flight pilots

The purpose of this research is to study the applicability of classical biomathematical models in the operating environment of Chinese airlines. First of all, in the operating environment of Chinese airlines, we used Continuous Performance Test (CPT), Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) and Samn-Perelli Fatigue Scale (SP) to observe pilots" alertness performance and self-assessed subjective fatigue during flight. Second, the corresponding pilot fatigue was simulated and quantified using the Crew Fatigue Assessment System (SAFE). Finally, the difference between the crew alertness value predicted by the SAFE model and the subjective self-assessment and objective performance of fatigue was compared, and the analysis of variance was used to explore the difference of the influence factors of fatigue on the model prediction and subjective and objective fatigue. The results show that the SAFE model predicts crew fatigue and subjective fatigue has a strong correlation. Overall, the model"s prediction of crew fatigue reflects the change trend of factors related to duty hours and circadian rhythm, but the predicted value is high after 18 hours of continuous duty. With the increase in the amount of validation data of the model and the adjustment of relevant parameters of the model to adapt to China"s flight operating environment, the model can be used as an objective tool for the predictive hazard identification of China"s airline fatigue risk management system (FRMS). The theoretical research and engineering application of the localized biomathematical model in our country can provide reference.