Future fluvial erosion and sedimentation potential of cohesive sediments in a coastal river reach of SW Finland

This study aims to analyse the combined impacts of future discharges and sea levels on erosion–sedimentation potential, and its seasonal changes, in a ~43‐km‐long coastal river reach of South‐west Finland. To our knowledge, this kind of combined study has not been performed before. In addition to surveying the present erosion–sedimentation conditions, the daily erosion–sedimentation potential is simulated with a one‐dimensional hydrodynamic model for the 1971–2000 and 2070–2099 periods by applying four discharge scenarios. Different sea level stages are also employed in the simulations. All scenarios forecast increasing autumn and winter discharges, but diminishing summer discharges. This indicates increasing river channel erosion, particularly during winters and autumns. Although discharge changes have altogether a greater influence on erosion–sedimentation potential, the importance of sea level changes on sedimentation is noticeable in the estuary. The rising sea level scenarios increase the sedimentation potential. In total, by 2070–2099, the erosion potential may increase in most parts of the study area. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.