“新经济”态势下基于数据挖掘的用电需求结构分析与预测

针对当前“新经济”产业已逐步成为用电“大户”的现状，对不同电力用户进行用电需求分析和用电量预测，成为保障“新经济”态势下保障电力用户安全合理用电的主要依据。分析“新经济“态势下的主要电力用户，通过构建用电相似度评价指标，并运用因子分析法将众多电力用户归类，得到“新经济”态势下的主要用电结构主体；利用ARMA预测模型，对不同用电结构主体的用电量进行预测，从而得到不同用电结构主体的用电变化趋势，作为引导“新经济”产业用户健康快速发展的基础；最后，用算例仿真验证了本文中的“新经济”态势下基于数据挖掘的用电需求结构分析与预测模型的有效性。

Analysis and forecast of electricity demand structure based on data mining under situation of"new economy"

In view of the current situation that the"new economy"industry has gradually become a"large user"of electricity,the power demand analysis and power consumption prediction for different power users have become the main basis for ensuring the safe and reasonable power consumption of power users under the situation of"new economy".This paper analyzes the main power users under the"new economy"situation,constructs the power consumption similarity evaluation index,and uses the factor analysis method to classify many power users,so as to obtain the main power consumption structure under the"new economy"situation.ARMA prediction model is used to predict the power consumption of different power consumption structure subjects,so as to obtain the power consumption change trend of different power consumption structure subjects,which is the basis for guiding the healthy and rapid development of industrial users in the"new economy".Finally,an example is used to verify the effectiveness of the power demand structure analysis and prediction model based on data mining under the situation of"new economy".