地下储气库注采动态预测模型

我国地下储气库建设才刚刚起步，目前尚缺乏一套相对成熟的地下储气库注采周期内动态模拟预测以及调峰气量计划配置的实用方法。从气体状态方程入手，推导出了一种预测地下储气库压力和注采气量关系的实用二元回归模型。经国内某地下储气库实例计算表明，该回归模型实用性较强，在地下储气库一个注采周期内的预测精度完全可以满足矿场要求，有利于运行管理部门优化配置地下储气库运行中的天然气供应、销售及储存。

A prediction model on dynamic injection and production for underground gas storages

In China, underground gas storage (UGS) is just at its early stage, so it lacks a set of relatively mature dynamic simulation and forecasting methods and gas planning &; distribution methods for peak shaving within an injection production cycle. Starting from gas state equation, this paper derived a binary regression model for predicting UGS pressure and gas injection production volume relationship. According to the practical calculation of a domestic UGS, the regression model is of high practicality and the prediction accuracy within an injection production cycle can completely meet the requirement of the field. This will help the operation and management department optimize natural gas supply, sales and storage in UGS.