安徽省重大慢性非传染性疾病早死概率趋势预测及影响因素探索

目的 分析及预测未来安徽省重大慢性非传染性疾病（慢性病）早死概率变化趋势,评估2030年目标达成情况,探索其影响因素。方法 利用安徽省死因监测、统计年鉴等资料,采用时间序列累计和数据对数线性Joinpoint回归、主成分回归等方法进行趋势预测及影响因素分析。结果 安徽省总死亡中有28.10%为早死,其中84.40%归因于慢性病。恶性肿瘤和心血管疾病在慢性病早死中分别占45.88%和41.65%。预测显示,未来安徽省重大慢性病早死概率呈下降趋势,到2030年仅农村地区能达到“健康中国2030”规划目标。为降低早死,需重点关注恶性肿瘤和心血管疾病,城市男性为重点关注人群。人均园林绿地面积等反映城市基础设施情况的因素对重大慢性病早死概率影响较大。PM_2.5浓度等因素对早死概率有负面影响,人均园林绿地面积等因素则有积极影响。结论 安徽省面临恶性肿瘤等重大慢性病疾病负担,城市男性是需重点关注群体。

Prediction of premature mortality of major chronic and non-communicable diseases and exploration of influencing factors in Anhui Province

Objective To analyze and predict the future trend of the premature mortality of major chronic and non-communicable diseases in Anhui Province, evaluate the implementation of the "Healthy China 2030" Plan, and explore its influencing factors. Methods Using data from death-cause surveillance and statistical yearbooks in Anhui, the trend prediction and analysis on influencing factors were conducted by using methods such as time series accumulation and logarithmic linear Joinpoint regression, principal component regression. Results In Anhui, 28.10% of the deaths were premature ones, of which 84.40% were attributed to chronic and non-communicable diseases. In premature deaths attributed to chronic and non-communicable diseases, the deaths caused by malignant tumor and cardiovascular disease accounted for 45.88% and 41.65% respectively. The prediction results showed that the premature mortality of major chronic and non-communicable diseases would decrease in Anhui in the future, and by 2030, the goal in the "Healthy China 2030" Plan would be reached only in rural area. To reduce premature death, it is necessary to pay attention to the prevention and control of malignant tumor and cardiovascular disease. Men in urban area are the key population. Factors that reflect urban infrastructure had a significant impact on premature mortality of major chronic non-communicable diseases, such as garden and green space area per capita. Factors such as concentration of PM_2.5 had a negative impact on premature mortality of chronic non-communicable diseases, while factors such as garden and green space area per capita had a positive impact. Conclusions Disease burden caused by chronic and non-communicable diseases, such as malignant tumor, exits in Anhui. Men in urban area are key population in the prevention and control of chronic and non-communicable diseases in the future.