| 复杂产品仿真可信度鲁棒评估方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘博元,;张凌宇,;范文慧,;曲慧杨,;侯宝存.复杂产品仿真可信度鲁棒评估方法[J].系统仿真技术,2014(2):101-104. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘博元 ;张凌宇 ;范文慧 ;曲慧杨 ;侯宝存 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]清华大学自动化系,北京100084; [2]北京仿真中心,北京100854 |
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| 摘 要： | 计算机建模仿真已经发展为重要的产品开发和系统测试手段.仿真可信度对仿真结果非常重要,但评估仿真可信度的过程常常较为繁琐.面向复杂产品仿真的可信与可靠评估需求,研究了评估风险的来源,提出了复杂产品仿真可信度鲁棒评估方法.该方法尽可能多地利用专家经验知识、仿真数据和试验数据的评估信息进行定性定量综合评估,通过建立评估结果分析反馈的优化机制,实现在反复迭代的评估过程中,减小不确定因素的影响,使评估结果逐渐趋向一致、稳定,以提高复杂产品仿真的评估结果的可信性、可靠性和鲁棒性.
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| 关 键 词： | 仿真可信度 层次分析法 D-S证据理论 鲁棒评估 |
Robust Evaluation Method for Complex Product Simulation Reliability |
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| Affiliation: | LIU Boyuan , ZHANG Lingyu , FAN Wenhui , QU Huiyang , HOU Baocun ( 1. Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China ; 2. Beijing Simulation Center, Beijing 100854, China) |
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| Abstract: | Computer simulation has developed system test. Simulation reliability is critical into an important means to simulation results, but for product development and the evaluation procedure of simulation reliability is usually very tedious. In this paper, to meet the need of simulation reliability evaluation,the source of evaluation risk is studied, and a robust evaluation method for complex product simulation reliability is proposed. By utilizing the information of expert knowledge, simulation data and experiment data as much as possible, and establishing an analysis and repose optimizing mechanism of simulation results, the method can mitigate the effect caused by uncertainties, and make the evaluation results become more similar and stable, which will enhance the credibility, simulation and robustness of simulation evaluation results for complex product. |
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| Keywords: | simulation reliability analytic hierarchy process D-S evidence theory robust evaluation |
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