桂林市西城区岩溶塌陷模糊层次综合预测

用大量的实际数据分析、论证了岩溶塌陷影响因素影响程度，桂林西城区岩溶塌陷灾害严重且典型，其覆盖层特征、岩溶发育程度、地质构造和地下水等自然因素是影响岩溶塌陷的基本因素，而地表水和工程活动的影响主要起加速和诱发作用，通过改变塌陷的基本条件而加速塌陷的形成。在此基础上，建立了西城区模糊层次结构预测模型，模型包括了３个层次（目标层、条件层、因子层），６个条件（岩溶、覆盖层、构造、水文、模型包括了３个层次

FUZZY-HIERARCHY PREDICTION OF KARST COLLAPSE IN THE WEST AREA OF GUILIN CITY

The karst collapse disaster in the west area of Guilin city is very typical and serious. Based on the clarification of the geological background and the analysis of a good deal of data, this paper specifies the influencing factors and degrees of karst collapse, and then draws a conclusion that the characteristics of over-layer, the degree of karst development and geological structure are basic factors affecting the karst collapse, and that surface water and engineering activities play a speeding and inducing role in the occurrence of karst collapse by changing the basic conditions. On this basis, the paper establishes a fuzzy-hierarchy prediction mo del, which contains 3 hierarchies, 6 conditions and 19 factors. By the calculation of the model, the west area of Guilin city is divided into five zones: stable area, basic stable area, secondary instable area, instable area and extremely instable area.