中国互联网企业生存的时空格局及影响因素研究

“双创”政策引导下中国创业进入黄金时代,互联网日益成为地区竞争优势的新动能。论文基于1994—2019年中国互联网创业企业数据,利用空间计量和生存分析探究其时空格局及影响因素。研究发现：① 中国互联网创业企业的数量增长呈现前缓后陡的“S”型特征,不同代际的企业生存能力存在差异,但年轻企业的高生存风险在各个世代普遍存在。② 互联网创业企业的生存能力在区域间形成差异化格局：从现存数量看,大城市明显占据优势;从生存时间看,高值区主要集中在东部地区,但随着产业发展与进入数量激增,东部的资源优势与竞争压力并重,中部城市的生存优势反而有所显现。③ 个体、世代与环境因素对企业生存均有显著影响,企业规模与生命周期表现为稳定的保护作用,规模越大、获投轮次越高越有利于生存;较早进入的创业企业生存质量明显较高,创业环境对企业生存整体表现为风险因素。④ 随世代推移,企业规模与周期特征的保护作用下降,区域的孵化环境由激励效应转变为竞争效应,基础设施的保护作用逐渐减弱。研究可为中国互联网创新创业浪潮的纵贯解读提供实证支持,并为创业地理研究提供有益案例。

Spatiotemporal pattern and determinants of Internet firm survival in China

With the implementation of the "mass entrepreneurship and innovation" strategy, China has entered a golden era of entrepreneurship. As one of the most important innovations, Internet has increasingly become a new driver of regional competitive advantage. Drawing on a unique dataset of Chinese Internet firms during 1994-2019, this study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics and survival determinants of startups in China by the spatial econometric and survival analysis methods (Kaplan-Meier method and time-dependent Cox regression model). We found that: 1) The number of Internet startups in China reached a high speed of increase during the past 25 years. It grew slowly in the early stage and then rose sharply around 2015, showing a "S-shaped" trend. The survival time of Internet firms across four cohorts is significantly different—those who entered earlier usually have a longer survival time. It is common that new firms face a high survival risk regardless of cohorts, because they are not strong enough to compete with the big companies and resist various risks. 2) The spatial pattern of Internet firm survival varies significantly among regions. There is an obvious urban preference in the existing numbers. Regions with long firm survival time are mainly located in the eastern areas of China, which enjoy a high level of economic development and population concentration. However, with the industrial development and increasing number of entries, both the regional resource advantage and competition pressure of the eastern region have become greater. As a result, the survival advantage of the central areas of China starts to appear. 3) In terms of survival determinants, firm heterogeneity, cohort, and entrepreneurial environment all show significant effects. Among the firm features, larger scale and higher investment rounds usually have a stable protective effect and would reduce the survival risk remarkably. At the cohort level, the average survival time of the early-entering startups is significantly higher, and favorable entrepreneurial environment imposes survival risk as a whole mainly because of the competition effect. 4) While the incubation environment changes from incentive effect to competitive effect over cohorts, the protection effect of firm scale and life cycle, as well as Internet infrastructure, gradually weakens. This study could provide empirical support for the longitudinal development of Chinese Internet innovation and entrepreneurship wave, as well as an interesting case study for the geography of entrepreneurship.