| 2003年上半年原油价格走势分析及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 卢平. 2003年上半年原油价格走势分析及预测[J]. 当代石油石化, 2003, 11(9): 24-26 |
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| 作者姓名： | 卢平 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国石化集团管道储运公司襄樊输油管理处,襄樊,441002 |
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| 摘 要： | 2003年上半年委内瑞拉供应量剧减，以及美伊战争等因素影响，上半年布伦特油价为28．17美元/桶，同比上涨19．7％，其中一季度为30．62美元/桶，二季度为25．80美元/桶。三、四季度世界石油需求增长有所回升，但欧佩克履约情况、伊拉克产量恢复情况及美国石油库存等是影响未来石油市场的不确定因素。预计三季度油价仍将起伏不定，布伦特油平均价格可能维持在28美元／桶左右，四季度为25．5美元/桶。
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| 关 键 词： | 油价 欧佩克 库存 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-6809(2003)09-0024-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-07-02 |
Crude Oil Price Review and Outlook in IH 2003 |
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| Lu Ping. Crude Oil Price Review and Outlook in IH 2003[J]. Petroleum & Petrochemical Today, 2003, 11(9): 24-26 |
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| Authors: | Lu Ping |
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| Abstract: | Influenced by Venezuela production loss and Iraq war, the crude oil price in the first half year of 2003 is 28.17 $ /bbl for Brent, 19. 7% up compared to the same period of last year, with 30. 62 $ /bbl in 1Q and 25. 80 $ /bbl in 2Q. Price outlook is based on an assumption of global oil demand growth rate increasing. But there are also many uncertainties in oil supply,for example, OPEC crude supply, Iraq supply recovery and US oil stock. On that basis,the average price for 3Q is projected to be 28 $ /bbl and 25.5 $ /bbl for 4Q. |
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| Keywords: | crude oil price OPEC industry oil stock |
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