基于情景分析法公共交通系统博弈模型研究

采用情景分析法对政府采取的公交优先措施进行情景拟定，根据博弈平衡的思想建立利益相关者偏好选择函数，实现公共交通系统的企业和乘客共赢，使公交企业能够健康运转、出行者乘坐并满意．考虑政府的投入与收益，构建目标规划模型，分析不同情景下对利益相关者的影响，找出社会利益最大化的策略，辅助政府选择最优策略，从而减少不良措施的实施，避免不必要的成本的损失和社会不可持续因素的产生．

Research on Public Transport System Gaming Model Based on. the Scene Analyses

This paper adopted scene analysis method to carry out a research of bus priority policy launched by govemment, building a stakeholder＇s preference function based on the gaming balance thought, so as to help accomplish a win-win situation that company can operate hcalthy, and passengers can achieve a higher satisfaction. The authors also considered the government＇s investment and benefit, and built a target plan model for analyzing the impact to stakeholders under various scenes, and found the strategy to maximum social benefit. The method can assist government to choose optimum strategy to reduce the implementation of adverse measures and avoid unnecessary cost and unsustainable factors to whole society.