长三角城市群旅游效率空间格局演变及俱乐部趋同研究

在对2010—2019年长三角城市群旅游效率进行测算的基础上,综合数据包络分析方法、空间马尔科夫链和变系数固定效应回归模型,探索其时空演化趋势及机理。结果表明:(1)长三角城市群旅游效率整体水平较高,区域差异显著,东部和南部城市旅游效率明显高于西部和北部城市。(2)各项旅游效率水平转移在空间因素作用下往往受到周边城市旅游效率的影响。考虑空间作用后,各项旅游效率维持原有稳定格局概率均明显增加,“俱乐部趋同”现象更为显著。(3)旅游效率时空演变一定程度上导致了俱乐部趋同效应,长三角城市群旅游发展效率表现出“近朱者赤、近墨者黑”现象。(4)对外开放水平、交通水平、产业结构、政府宏观调控是各市旅游效率变动的主要影响因素,不同城市应制定不同的旅游发展措施,推动旅游产业进步和技术革新,促进旅游效率的高效发展。

Spatial Pattern Evolution of Tourism Industry's Efficiency and Its Club Convergence in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations

Comprehensively using the methods of data envelopment analysis,spatial Markov chain and variable coefficient fixed effect regression model,based on quantitative measurement of tourism efficiency in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations from 2010 to 2019,this study explored the spatial and temporal evolution trend and mechanism of tourism efficiency in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.The results indicate that:(1)The tourism industry efficiency level of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is relatively high on the whole,and the regional difference is obvious.The tourism efficiency of the eastern and southern cities is significantly higher than that of the western and northern cities.(2)The transfer of tourism efficiency is always affected by the tourism efficiency of surrounding cities.The probability of maintaining the original stable pattern of each tourism efficiency has increased significantly,and the phenomenon of“club convergence”has become more significant after considering the spatial factors.(3)The spatial and temporal evolution of tourism efficiency led to the effect of club convergence to some degree-a phenomenon of“one takes the behavior of one’s company”.(4)Some factors such as the opening-up level,traffic level,industrial structure and government macro-regulation also affect the productive efficiency of tourism in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,which can lead to the efficiency changes and regional imbalances.Different cities should formulate different measures for tourism development,promote the progress of tourism industry and technological innovation,and promote the efficient development of tourism efficiency.