低渗透气藏开发经济临界产量分析方法及其应用

为经济、有效开发低渗透气藏，针对低渗透气藏的开发特点，通过引进年产量计算系数、产能建设边界指标，运用动态盈亏平衡分析，推导出综合考虑当年建成产能贡献率、产能到位率、产量递减情况和资金时间价值等因素的低渗透气藏开发经济临界产量计算公式。该公式克服了现有经济临界产量计算公式考虑影响因素不全面的不足，分析内容更加全面、计算结果更加符合低渗透气藏的开发实际。利用该公式不仅可以计算低渗透气藏开发的经济临界产量、亿立方米产能建设投资边界，而且还可以分析经济临界产量对天然气价格、操作成本、基准收益率等技术经济参数的敏感性，其分析和计算结果对低渗透气藏开发的投资决策和组织生产具有参考意义

An approach to the calculation of economic production limit for low-permeability gas reservoirs

Based on the specific development characteristics of low-permeability gas reservoirs,the calculation formula of economic production limit for low-permeability gas reservoirs is deduced by use of annual productivity calculation coefficient,production possibility frontier,and dynamic break-even analysis.Overcoming the shortcomings of the currently used equations,this formula takes into account many factors such as productivity contribution,utilization rate of productive capacity,decline of productivity,time value of money,etc.,so that the contents of analysis are more complete and the calculation results agree better with the actual exploitation.With this formula,not only can the economic production limit for low-permeability gas reservoirs and 100-million-m3-production possibility frontier be calculated,but the sensitivity of the economic production limit can be analyzed to technical and economic parameters like gas price,operation cost,and the minimum attractive rate of return,and its analysis and calculation results provide reference for decision-makers and operators to make a better management in the development of low-permeability gas reservoirs in domestic gas fields.