1960~2013年云南省降水时空变化特征分析

鉴于分析云南省降水时空变化特征对该地区旱涝灾害预警和水文模型研究具有重要意义，基于云南省29个气象站点1960~2013年的逐日降水资料，采用滑动平均、线性倾向估计、Mann Kendall突变检验、滑动t检验和普通克里格插值等方法分析了该地区降水变化特征、降水变化趋势及空间分布情况。结果表明，年际降水量以7.7 mm/10a的幅度逐渐减少，在2008年发生突变；空间分布不均，整体由东北向西南呈带状递增分布，并形成2个孤岛状的降水集中区。夏、秋、冬三季降水量均逐渐减少，春季增加；季突变时间存在差异性；夏、秋两季空间分布情况与年际类似，春季自南向北逐渐减少，冬季自中部分别向东南和西北呈带状递增分布，同时还具有自南向北呈带状递减分布的特征。

Spatial temporal Characteristics of Precipitation in Yunnan Province from 1960 to 2013

The research of spatial temporal features of precipitation in Yunnan Province plays an important role in warning the drought and flood disasters and analyzing hydrological models in this region. Based on the daily data from 29 meteorological stations during the period of 1960 2013, moving average analysis methods, linear trend estimation, Mann Kendall test, moving t test and ordinary kriging interpolation method were used to analyze the features and spatial distributions of precipitation variation. The results show that the mean annual precipitation was in a decrease trend and its gradient was 7.7mm/10a, the abrupt point appeared at 2008. Spatial distribution was uneven, precipitation increased as the shape of strip from northeast to southwest while the formation of two precipitation abundant places. Precipitation in summer, autumn and winter exhibited downward trend while that in spring presented upward trend; abrupt change points were different in seasonal precipitation. Spatial distribution characteristics in summer and autumn were similar with the mean annual; spring precipitation in south was more than that in north; winter precipitation decreased from middle area to both southeast and northwest as the shape of strip; in the meantime, it declined from south to north.