钢筋混凝土结构长期变形的Bayesian预测

对钢筋混凝土结构长期变形进行随机预测研究。引入响应面技术拟合不能显式表示的结构响应；同时，将重点抽样技术引入Bayesian推断，以解决当似然函数为窄峰分布时数值计算困难的问题。通过对一个钢筋混凝土简支梁长期变形进行预测，验证本文方法的有效性。  

Bayesian Prediction of Long-Term Deflection for Concrete Structures

The research on stochastic prediction about long-term deflection of reinforced concrete structure is carried in the paper . The response surface approach is adopted to fit the structural responses which cannot be expressed explicitly .Meanwhile , through intro-ducing importance sampling approach into Bayesian inference , the numerical computational dilemma , encountered when the likelihood function has a sharper distribution , is overcome.With prediction of long-term deflection for a reinforced concrete beam , the accuracy of the proposed computational scheme is verified .