| 区域电网智能化水平评估及其时空外推方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘艳丽,赵启明,黄瀚,刘林,贾宏杰.区域电网智能化水平评估及其时空外推方法[J].南方电网技术,2016,10(5):45-50. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘艳丽 赵启明 黄瀚 刘林 贾宏杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 智能电网教育部重点实验室（天津大学)，天津300072,智能电网教育部重点实验室（天津大学)，天津300072,国家电网能源研究院，北京102209,国家电网能源研究院，北京102209,智能电网教育部重点实验室（天津大学)，天津300072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（51407126）；天津市应用基础与前沿技术研究项目（15JCQNJC07000） |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了区域电网智能化水平评估的指标体系、评估方法和时空外推方法。指标体系引入关键技术适用度以评估关键技术对区域电网发展的支撑作用,并基于技术成熟度等级评估模型计算关键技术适用度。采用序关系-变异系数法获取评估结果。采用Logistic模型实现评估结果在时间维度上的快速预测,针对部分地区底层数据不足的问题,借助典型区域的评估数据,基于偏最小二乘法实现评估结果的空间外推。两个省级电网的应用实例表明了评估方法的有效性和时空外推方法的可行性。
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| 关 键 词： | 智能化水平 时空外推 关键技术适用度 智能电网评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 4/5/2016 12:00:00 AM |
Smart Level Evaluation and Time Spatial Extrapolation Method for Regional Grids |
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| LIU Yanli,ZHAO Qiming,HUANG Han,LIU Lin and JIA Hongjie.Smart Level Evaluation and Time Spatial Extrapolation Method for Regional Grids[J].Southern Power System Technology,2016,10(5):45-50. |
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| Authors: | LIU Yanli ZHAO Qiming HUANG Han LIU Lin and JIA Hongjie |
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| Affiliation: | Key Laboratory of Smart Grid of Ministry of Education, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China,Key Laboratory of Smart Grid of Ministry of Education, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China,State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China,State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China and Key Laboratory of Smart Grid of Ministry of Education, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China |
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| Abstract: | An evaluation index system, method and time spatial extrapolation for smart level of regional grid are presented in this paper. The system employs an index named critical technology adaptability to evaluate the supporting role of key technology to the development of regional grid, and the critical technology adaptability is calculated based on technology readiness level (TRL). Evaluation results are obtained by the combined ordering relation and variation coefficient method. The obtained results are fast predicted in time dimension based on Logistic model, and extrapolated in spatial dimension based on partial least squares analysis for some regions without enough bottom data. The effectiveness of the proposed method and feasibility of the time spatial exploration are verifid by application instanses of two provincial power grids. |
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