石家庄市大气颗粒物与儿童急性下呼吸道感染门诊量的时间序列分析

目的探讨石家庄市大气颗粒物(PM2.5和PM10)对儿童急性下呼吸道感染日门诊量的影响,为大气环境治理和儿童呼吸道感染的预防控制提供理论依据。方法应用Poison分布广义可加模型分析PM2.5和PM10对儿童急性下呼吸道感染日门诊量的影响进行(0-5)d的滞后分析及多污染物模型分析;计算颗粒物每增加10μg/m3,日门诊量增加的比值比。结果PM2.5在lag0 d、lag1 d和累积lag01 d^lag03 d对儿童急性下呼吸道感染日门诊量的影响具有统计学意义PM10在lag0 d^lag2 d和累积滞后lag01 d^lag05 d对儿童急性下呼吸道感染日门诊量的影响具有统计学意义;PM2.5在暴露当天、累积滞后1 d以及PM10在累积滞后1 d、2 d对日门诊量的影响最大PM2.5或PM10浓度每增加10μg/m3,儿童急性下呼吸道感染的日门诊量均增加0.35%。多污染物模型的分析结果显示PM2.5只有在引入SO2后模型才具有统计学意义,PM10在引入其他污染物后均具有统计学意义,但引入SO2后效应最大。结论石家庄市PM2.5和PM10度的增加会导致儿童急性下呼吸道感染的门诊量增加,且PM10的滞后效应较PM2.5强。

Time Series Analysis on Atmospheric Particulate Matter with Outpatients of Acute Lower Respiratory Infection in Children in Shijiazhuang

Objectives To investigate the effects of atmospheric particulate matter(PM2.5 and PM10) on the daily outpatients of acute lower respiratory infection in children in Shijiazhuang,and to provide theoretical basis for the treatment of atmospheric environment and the prevention and control of children with respiratory tract infection.Methods The Poisson generalized additive model was used to analyze the effects of PM2.5 and PM10 on the daily outpatients of acute lower respiratory infection in children,carry out(0-5) days of lag analysis and multi-pollutant model analysis;and to calculate the odds ratios of daily outpatient visits increase for every 10 μg/m3 increase in particulate matter.Results Estimated effects of PM2.5 on the outpatients of acute lower respiratory infection in children were statistically significant at lag0,lag1 day and cumulative lag01-lag03 day.Estimated effects of PM10 on which were statistically significant at lag0-lag2 day and cumulative lag01-lag05 day.Estimated effects of PM2.5 and PM10 on which were highest at lagO day、cumulative lag01 day(PM2.5) and at cumulative lag01、lag02 day(PM10)respectively;for every 10 μg/m3 increase in concentration of PM2.5 or PM10,the daily outpatients of acute lower respiratory infection in children increased by 0.35%.The analysis result of multi-pollutant model showed that PM2.5was statistically significant only after the inclusion of SO2,PM10 was statistically significant after the inclusion other pollutants,but the highest OR was observed after the inclusion of SO2.Conclusions The increase of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations in Shijiazhuang City were associated with an increase in outpatient visits with acute lower respiratory infection in children,and the hysteresis effect of PM10 was stronger than that of PM2.5.