基于最大熵原理的中长期负荷预测综合模型的研究

中长期负荷受到许多不确定因素的影响,使得负荷呈现一定的随机性的特点。采用了信息理论中的最大熵原理来重新构建中长期负荷预测的综合模型,该模型把各种单一预测模型的预测结果以及历史预测误差分布作为约束条件,利用最大熵原理得到预测结果的分布。算例表明,新模型与传统的综合模型相比,提高了预测的精度,预测结果更合理、客观。

Comprehensive model of mid-and long-term load forecasting based on maximum entropy principle

The mid-and long-term load is influenced by many uncertain factors,so the load presents some stochastic characters.In this paper,a comprehensive forecasting model based on maximum entropy principle in information theory is introduced.Taking separate forecasting model's result and history forecasting error into account and using maximum entropy principle,this model receives probability distribution of the forecasted values.Example indicates that the new comprehensive model improves the forecasting precision and makes the forecasted results more reasonable and impersonal.This project is supported by Key Research and Technologies Plan of Shanghai(No.041612012).