基于状态检修的电网运行风险评估

设备故障率的计算是电网运行风险评估中的关键环节,将基于状态检修的设备故障率算法应用到电网运行风险评估中,在一定程度上提高了设备故障率的准确度、可信度。基于状态检修的电网运行风险评估方法充分考虑了电网运行中存在的不确定性,通过线路过载、变压器过载、过电压、低电压和失负荷五项风险指标较全面地描述电网运行风险水平,且应用了层次分析法计算电网综合风险指标,为对比电网不同运行方式下的风险大小提供了参考依据。通过实际算例分析,验证了基于状态检修的电网运行风险评估方法的有效性。

Risk Assessment on Condition-Based Maintenance in Power Grid

Calculation of the equipment failure rate is a key to the assessment of power system operation risk .The method of equipment fault rate based on the condition maintenance rate algorithm is applied to the assessment of power system operation risk.It also improves the accuracy and reliability of equipment failure rate in a certain extent. The power system operation risk assessment methods based on the condition maintenance take full consideration of the existing uncertainty in power grid operation .It describes the running risk level of the power grid comprehensively through the five risk index which contains the line overload, transformer overload, over voltage, low voltage and loss of load , and the layer analysis method are applied to the calculation of the comprehensive risk index of power network, which provides a reference norm to the comparison of risk under different operating modes of power grid . Through the practical example analysis, this paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the power system operation risk assessment method based on condition maintenance.