Praying for Drought: Persistent Vulnerability and the Politics of Patronage in Ceará, Northeast Brazil

ABSTRACT   The phrase persistent vulnerability reflects the enduring relationship of the rural population in Ceará with a highly variable climate. Persistence underscores the historical and unyielding nature of this vulnerability. Yet contrary to once-catastrophic rates of mortality etched in a public consciousness, no one dies from severe droughts and few people flee them as in the past. Government relief and social transfers have become the institutionalized form of adaptation, giving way to the counterintuitive reality that drought stabilizes the food and income supply for poor people. We analyze how maladaptive risk reduction, which is embedded in clientilistic social relations, undermines resilience, and we examine pathways toward a more sustainable adaptive relationship.     

Small marine pelagic fish and the threat of fishing; are they endangered?

Evidence of the collapse and recovery of major marine fisheries for pelagic fish species is reviewed, distinguishing the influence of fishing compared with natural (environmental) effects. In one only of the best documented cases (Icelandic spring-spawning herring) has the stock failed to reappear, after 20 years. Several others, e.g. California sardine, have persisted at 1/000th or possibly less of their peak size for some years before beginning to recover. Fishing has been the main cause of collapse in most but not all cases, due initially to the escalation of catchability as stock size decreases–a phenomenon characteristic of fisheries for pelagic species due to their shoaling habit, ease of detection and vulnerability to modern fishing methods. It is concluded that although the threat of fishing to the continuity of the species is remote, excessive depletion (although avoidable by firm and timely management) is potentially able to cause temporary disappearance of local stock and disruption of the ecosystem.     

Relationship between grass species richness and ecosystem stability in Kruger National Park, South Africa

The relationship between grass species richness and ecosystem stability was investigated in the Kruger National Park. A total of 135 489 individual grasses were identified from 189 sites spread across 19 485 km² of savanna biome, making this one of the largest studies of its kind. At each site, grass percentage abundance and standing crop were measured at one year intervals to provide an index of ecosystem function. A severe drought that affected the region between 1991 and 1993 provided a convenient perturbation. At the height of the drought, mean species richness declined by 12.7% while standing crop declined by 38.1%, from 3199 to 1979 kg ha^?1. Percentage grass abundance declined to 87.5% of its pre‐drought value. After the drought had passed species richness, standing crop and percentage abundance recovered to 92.1%, 113.8% and 92.8% of their pre‐perturbation values, respectively. Statistical analysis of these responses revealed that grass assemblages of low species richness were more resistant to drought than assemblages of high species richness. Species‐poor sites also showed better recovery from perturbation after the drought had passed. These findings suggest that ecosystem stability may be negatively related to grass species richness in South African savanna grasslands.     

适应气候变化的海岸带韧性研究综述——基于文献计量分析

海岸带是人口经济高度集聚且生态敏感区域,提升其适应气候变化扰动的韧性能力是促进沿海地区可持续治理的重要手段。研究从适应气候变化风险出发,在辨析海岸带韧性概念、内涵及特征的基础上,运用软件分析法和归纳总结法梳理海岸带韧性相关研究的热点结构分布、演进脉络特征和热词主题类别,指出当前海岸带韧性研究聚焦于韧性作用机制解析、韧性表征测度、韧性提升路径和韧性管理策略4大方面。研究表明灾害影响范围界定、多灾耦合的链式演变、复杂系统时空韧性测度和人-地-海弹性匹配尚存薄弱之处,提出我国海岸带气候韧性未来研究需关注理论体系建构、空间规划实践和多学科交叉融合。依据"原则-目标-路径"逻辑从治理对象、治理主体、治理空间和治理机制4个维度展望海岸带气候韧性治理框架,即辨识治理对象,以风险链评估为韧性治理起点;协同治理主体,探索跨权益治理的韧性平衡;统筹治理空间,建构韧性空间优化治理模式;创新治理机制,完善韧性治理能级长效路径。     

长三角城市群城市洪涝韧性与生态系统服务的耦合协调关系

厘清城市洪涝韧性与生态系统服务之间耦合协调关系,可为城市防洪减灾和生态文明建设提供重要决策参考。综合运用基于麻雀算法的投影寻踪模型、InVEST模型和耦合协调度模型,在分析2000-2020年长三角城市群的城市洪涝韧性与水源涵养、水质净化、土壤保持和气候调节四种生态系统服务时空格局基础上,尝试探索两者耦合协调关系及其时空演变特征。研究发现:(1)长三角城市群的城市洪涝韧性水平呈现"N"型增加趋势,并呈现"上海>江苏>浙江>安徽"的空间格局,表明经济水平越高的城市展现出更强的洪涝韧性,经济是影响城市洪涝韧性波动的主要因素,而自然韧性成为城市洪涝韧性提升的关键短板;(2)生态系统服务存在显著的空间异质性,高植被覆盖的南部地区提供了更高的生态系统服务,从时间维度看其空间分布是稳定的,水源涵养和水质净化服务总体呈向好趋势,土壤保持服务整体呈现倒"N"型增加,气候调节服务呈现微弱的下降趋势;(3)城市洪涝韧性与生态系统服务的耦合协调度在研究期内较为稳定,且与生态系统服务的时空变化趋于一致,呈现"南高北低、由西南向东北逐渐减弱"的趋势,生态系统服务较高的城市,表现出更好的耦合协调性,且随着生态系统服务的增加而改善。因此,长三角城市群有必要从提高生态系统服务功能的角度出发,因地制宜、分类施策,促进城市洪涝韧性与生态系统服务的协调发展。     

2001-2019年台风干扰下我国东南沿海地区植被抵抗力和恢复力评估

台风是影响我国陆地生态系统结构和功能的主要自然灾害之一,尤其对东南沿海地区植被具有明显的干扰效应。为深入了解台风对我国沿海地区植被的影响及其响应,基于MODIS增强型植被指数(Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI)和叶面积指数(Leaf Area Index, LAI),分析了2001-2019年间不同等级的台风对植被EVI和LAI的影响,评估台风登陆时植被的抵抗力及台风过后植被的恢复力。结果表明:(1)2001-2019年间,共有70个台风登陆我国东南沿海地区,其中,台风(TY)、强台风(STY)与超强台风(SuperTY)的数量分别为35、26和9个。我国台湾省的台风登陆次数最多,为26个,其次为广东省(20个);(2)在整个研究区范围内,台风(TY)、强台风(STY)与超强台风(SuperTY) 登陆后的EVI净变化率分别为4.88%、-7.48%、-1.85%,LAI净变化率分别为22.28%、-65.70%、-17.60%;(3)在经历台风干扰后,沿海地区大部分植被可在3个月之内得到恢复,其中浙江省与广东省植被的恢复时间较长,海南省与台湾省植被的恢复时间较短。研究结果对我国沿海地区森林经营管理和生态环境保护具有重要意义。     

Vegetation responses to past volcanic disturbances at the Araucaria araucana forest‐steppe ecotone in northern Patagonia

Volcanic eruptions play an important role in vegetation dynamics and its historical range of variability. However, large events are infrequent and eruptions with a significant imprint in today''s vegetation occurred far in the past, limiting our understanding of ecological processes. Volcanoes in southern Andes have been active during the last 10 ka and support unique ecosystems such as the Araucaria–Nothofagus forest. Araucaria is an endangered species, with a fragmented distribution and well‐adapted to fire and volcanic disturbances. Yet, it was suggested that volcanism might have increased the fragmentation. Through the use of pollen and tephra analysis from a sedimentary record, this paleoecological study aims to provide an insight into the vegetation responses to past volcanic disturbances, to assess the role of volcanic disturbance on the vegetation dynamics and to determine if the current fragmentation has been caused by volcanism. Results show that during the last 9 kyr, 39 tephra falls buried the vegetation around Lake Relem, more frequently between 4 and 2 ka. The pollen percentage indicates that the vegetation changed after small tephra fall but seldom caused significant changes. However, the large eruption of Sollipulli volcano (~3 ka) changed the environmental conditions affecting severely the vegetation. Ephedra dominated the early successional stage, perhaps facilitating Nothofagus recovering after ~500 years. Slight increase of Araucaria and Nothofagus obliqua‐type pollen percentages suggests that forest resisted without permanent changes and recovered relatively fast after the large eruption, perhaps because of sparse biological legacies distributed in the landscape. In the study area, the relative stability of Araucaria pollen after several tephra fall suggests no change in its past distribution at the current forest‐steppe ecotone, thus not affecting its current conservation status. Perhaps, random factors, the colonization patterns of the high elevations in the Andes after deglaciation and topography might play a more important role than previously thought.     

What is a healthy ecosystem?

Rapid deterioration of the world's major ecosystems has intensified the need for effective environmental monitoring and the development of operational indicators of ecosystem health. Ecosystem health represents a desired endpoint of environmental management, but it requires adaptive, ongoing definition and assessment. We propose that a healthy ecosystem is one that is sustainable – that is, it has the ability to maintain its structure (organization) and function (vigor) over time in the face of external stress (resilience). Various methods to quantify these three ecosystem attributes (vigor, organization, and resilience) are discussed. These attributes are then folded into a comprehensive assessment of ecosystem health. A network analysis based ecosystem health assessment is developed and tested using trophic exchange networks representing several different aquatic ecosystems. Results indicate the potential of such an ecosystem health assessment for evaluating the relative health of similar ecosystems, and quantifying the effects of natural or anthropogenic stress on the health of a particular ecosystem over time.     

基于传统生态智慧的江南水网空间韧性机制及实践启示

传统江南水网空间是一种典型的社会—生态系统,人文社会系统和自然生态系统之间的良性互动对于其韧性构建有着重要的积极作用。基于柯林斯等人提出的压力—冲击动态（PPD）模型,以平江府为典型代表,研究传统江南水网空间如何通过生态系统服务的桥梁搭建水网物质空间与人类社区发展之间的联系,从而厘清社会—生态系统在此过程中如何培育、优化和提升江南水网空间韧性。在此基础上,创新性地从生态系统服务供需关系的角度提出社会—生态韧性构建的生态智慧,并倡导以恢复力、适应力与变革力韧性机制培育为导向的、江南地区构建现代社区实践的若干启示,旨在引导江南水网空间实现具有韧性的社会—生态系统转型发展。