Towards a theory of the evolution of butterfly colour patterns under directional and disruptive selection

Two general models for the transspecific evolution of butterfly colour patterns are advanced: directional selection acting equally on both sexes, and disruptive selection involving periods of polymorphism. To consider possible outcomes of me latter process, a morphism notation based on an integrated classification for polymorphism and sexual dimorphism is developed. This notation is used to examine the properties of all morphism transformations possible from the minimal expressions of the nine morphism categories, as reached through defined minimum step changes. The significance of such pathway models is analysed in terms of general properties of butterfly polymorphism. The potential use of pathway models in evolutionary studies is briefly discussed, mainly with respect to phylogenetics, and ideas on the evolution of genetic dominance.     

Priors for the Bayesian star paradox

We show that the Bayesian star paradox, first proved mathematically by Steel and Matsen for a specific class of prior distributions, occurs in a wider context including less regular, possibly discontinuous, prior distributions.     

Trout Salmo spp. complex in Serbia and adjacent regions of the western Balkans: reconstruction of evolutionary history from external morphology

The multivariate phenetic approach to the classification of Salmo spp. samples from Serbia and adjacent regions of western Balkans for 22 continuous external morphological characters suggests the occurrence of the following distinct stocks: West Danubian (Crno Osoje Stream and upper Zeta River) Salmo taleri , marble trout Salmo marmoratus (Trebuščica River), hatchery-reared Atlantic Salmo trutta , Mlava River drainage (Mlava and Krupaja rivers and Buk Stream) trout Salmo cf. trutta , Velika Morava River system (Godljevača, Bela and Resava rivers) trout S. cf. trutta , Ohrid Lake belvica Salmo ohridana and Aegean coastal drainage Salmo macedonicus (Božica River). In contrast to the phenetic similarity, the phylogenetic reconstruction places the Lake Ohrid belvica as part of an unresolved polytomy with other trout groups. Salmo cf. trutta in the Mlava River appears to form the basal group for the trout species in the region. The position of marble trout implies its independent and more recent origin from the West Danubian trout stock.     

Bayesian Quantile Regression for Longitudinal Studies with Nonignorable Missing Data

Summary .  We study quantile regression (QR) for longitudinal measurements with nonignorable intermittent missing data and dropout. Compared to conventional mean regression, quantile regression can characterize the entire conditional distribution of the outcome variable, and is more robust to outliers and misspecification of the error distribution. We account for the within-subject correlation by introducing a   ℓ₂   penalty in the usual QR check function to shrink the subject-specific intercepts and slopes toward the common population values. The informative missing data are assumed to be related to the longitudinal outcome process through the shared latent random effects. We assess the performance of the proposed method using simulation studies, and illustrate it with data from a pediatric AIDS clinical trial.     

ABC as a flexible framework to estimate demography over space and time: some cons,many pros

The analysis of genetic variation to estimate demographic and historical parameters and to quantitatively compare alternative scenarios recently gained a powerful and flexible approach: the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). The likelihood functions does not need to be theoretically specified, but posterior distributions can be approximated by simulation even assuming very complex population models including both natural and human‐induced processes. Prior information can be easily incorporated and the quality of the results can be analysed with rather limited additional effort. ABC is not a statistical analysis per se, but rather a statistical framework and any specific application is a sort of hybrid between a simulation and a data‐analysis study. Complete software packages performing the necessary steps under a set of models and for specific genetic markers are already available, but the flexibility of the method is better exploited combining different programs. Many questions relevant in ecology can be addressed using ABC, but adequate amount of time should be dedicated to decide among alternative options and to evaluate the results. In this paper we will describe and critically comment on the different steps of an ABC analysis, analyse some of the published applications of ABC and provide user guidelines.     

Evolution,pollination, and systematics of the tribeNeottieae (Orchidaceae)

The various classifications of the orchid tribeNeottieae are reviewed and a new classification is proposed that divides the tribe into three subtribes,Neottiinae, Limodorinae, andCephalantherinae, based primarily on characters of the column (gynostemium). A cladistic analysis illustrates that these three subtribes are more closely related to one another than either is to any other group in subfam.Neottioideae, although there are very few apomorphic characters for the tribe. Pollination biology is also discussed showing links between breeding systems and distribution. There is also a possible role between column and labellum morphology and the emergence of a deceptive pollination syndrome from one of reward.     

Phenetic relationships inClerodendrum (Verbenaceae) and some phylogenetic considerations

Cluster analyses by different methods and a minimum spanning tree were used to study phenetic relationships in the genusChlerodendrum. 129 species were scored for 52 morphological characters corresponding to 119 character states. The phenetic results suggest a classification into 7 distinct groups, which may be grouped into two subgenera. This classification is supported by the iridoid distribution as well as by some phylogenetic considerations.     

Linkage analysis for 18 enzyme loci in Pinus rigida Mill.

Summary Estimates of recombination frequency among enzyme loci of pitch pine revealed two new linkages, Mdh3:Pgm2 (=0.01) and Pep1:Mdh4 (=0.38), and confirmed two previously established linkages. Tighter linkage (=0.30) was ruled out for nearly all gene pairs examined. In general, the Bayesian approach used in this study to test for linkage performed better than alternative methods.This work was supported by the School of Natural Resources, College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, and by McIntyre-Stennis, project no. 142-C385     

Probabilistic reconstruction of ancestral protein sequences

Using a maximum-likelihood formalism, we have developed a method with which to reconstruct the sequences of ancestral proteins. Our approach allows the calculation of not only the most probable ancestral sequence but also of the probability of any amino acid at any given node in the evolutionary tree. Because we consider evolution on the amino acid level, we are better able to include effects of evolutionary pressure and take advantage of structural information about the protein through the use of mutation matrices that depend on secondary structure and surface accessibility. The computational complexity of this method scales linearly with the number of homologous proteins used to reconstruct the ancestral sequence.