基于改进型图像信息方法的汶川地震前电离层参量时空特征研究

震前加速破坏阶段地壳岩石破裂过程中可能辐射电磁信号,提取与之相关的电磁信号异常有助于认识地震孕育及破坏过程,从而为防震减灾提供支持.本文提出了改进型图像信息方法(Modified Pattern Informatics Method,MPI方法),并用于汶川地震前电离层参量时空特征信息的提取.通过分析对比处理前后的DEMETER电磁卫星时空图像可以发现,原始时空图像一般存在季节性和空间性的变化规律,较难获得有意义的信息;而采用MPI方法处理后,则发现汶川大地震前,电离层参量存在明显的异常变化.从而,证明了MPI方法具有消除背景趋势、突出短期变化的能力,可以有效地提取强震相关的电磁前兆信息.     

FS方法及其在综合多项震兆中的应用

本文提出了一种模式识别方法--FS方法.该方法的特征取为某些论域上的模糊子集.先以每三个原始特征组成子分类器的特征集,“训练”这些分类器,然后对子分类器进行筛选,最后用筛选出的子分类器的“软”分类结果的加权平均作为判别函数,形成总的分类决策.将FS方法应用于综合多项震兆,并进行了一系列控制试验,还与地震学中几种常用的方法进行了对比试验.结果表明,FS方法是稳定和有效的.     

东亚夏季风的年际变化及其对环流和降水的影响

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis geopotential height (GHT) and wind at 850 hPa, GHT at 500 hPa, precipitation rate, sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation observations from more than 600 stations nationwide in June–August from 1951 to 2006, and focusing on the East Asia-West Pacific region (10°–80°N, 70°–180°E), interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and its correlations with general circulation and precipitation patterns are studied by using statistical diagnostic methods such as 9-point high pass filtering, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, composite analysis and other statistical diagnosis, etc. It is concluded as follows: (1) EOF analysis of SLP in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows the existence of the zonal dipole oscillation mode (APD) between the Mongolia depression and the West Pacific high, and APD index can be used as an intensity index of EASM. (2) EOF analysis of GHT anomalies at 500 hPa in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows that the first EOF mode is characterized with an obvious meridional East Asian pattern (EAP), and EAP index can also be used as an EASM intensity index. (3) The composite analysis of high/low APD index years reveals the close correlation of APD index with EAP at 500 hPa (or 850 hPa). The study shows an obvious opposite correlation exists between APD index and EAP index with a correlation coefficient of −0.23, which passes the confidence test at 0.10 level. (4) Both APD and EAP indexes are closely correlated with precipitation during flood-prone season in China and precipitation rate over the East Asia-West Pacific region. The significant correlation area at 5% confidence level is mainly located from the southern area of the Yangtze River valley to the ocean around southern Japan, and the former is a positive correlation and the latter is a negative one. Foundation: Cooperative Project funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, No.2007DFB20210; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.90502003; JICA China-Japan Technical Cooperative Project “China-Japanese Cooperative Research Center on Meteorological Disasters”. Author: Yu Shuqiu, Associate Professor, specialized in climate and climate change.     

强余震持续时间的早期估计

本研究旨在解决地震序列中强余震持续时间的早期估计问题。文中首先给出了强余震的震级定义，指出：主震型与强震群型序列的强作震持续时间存在差异。使用模式识别方法对主震型序列中强余震持续时间大于１天，小于１天及无强余震等３种情况进行划分之后，给出了两类序列的强余震持续时间与序列和第一震震级的粗略相关关系。     

区域土地利用及土地覆盖的空间格局研究--以广西梧州市为例

从分析梧州市土地利用现状入手, 总结其土地利用的现状特征, 而后在引入多样性指数、优势度指数、均匀度指数和破碎度指数的基础上, 对梧州市土地利用／ 覆盖的空间格局进行了定量分析。最后, 根据计算结果得出有关结论。     

被越南侵占的中国南沙群岛岛礁的时空分布特征及战略格局

以南海海域200 m等深线水深图和南沙群岛海域11幅1﹕250 000海图以及1﹕800 000海图为基础数据,使用ArcGIS 10.1,采用墨卡托投影,CGCS 2000坐标系对海图进行配准并进行矢量化处理,提取图中水深点、岛礁位置信息、礁坪、礁体位置信息。通过对被越南侵占的南沙群岛29座岛礁的空间分析,认为被占岛礁在空间上存在“一纵一横”的空间分布特征,南沙群岛被占岛礁南子岛、景宏岛、南威岛、六门礁从N至W构成了4个核心和广雅滩1个次核心的岛礁空间分布战略格局。通过对被占岛礁面积、礁坪面积及礁体面积进行插值处理,叠加分析,按重分类方法将插值结果按数值大小划分为5类,予以揭示被占岛礁的重要程度及未来开发潜力。通过分析越南侵占岛礁的岛屿面积与礁体面积比值,指出鸿庥岛、景宏岛、西礁、中礁、毕生礁、六门礁、柏礁有较大填海造陆潜力的岛礁。     

第二代航磁黄沙坪异常的分解及其矿产新空间

本文采用同时具有识別、分解、解释异常三重作用的三元解释法■,在黄沙坪异常负值区有效地提取了由未知的深源磁性体引起的剩余异常。该异常与已知的中、浅源磁性体分处于极为类同的成矿地质背景中。后者与隐伏岩体、铅锌多金属盲矿体之间有着密切的成生联系。这为前者间接找矿提供了有力的依据。定量解释结果中,两者间的磁矩等效关系,论证了已知矿床西侧深部空间里,仍存在找到又一个大型矿床的前景。     

基于机器学习的重庆长江航道雾图像特征识别研究

基于重庆市境内长江航道雷达站拍摄的雾天气过程影像资料,利用K最近邻、支持向量机、BP神经网络、随机森林等机器学习算法,对无雾和5类有雾天气个例进行图像识别训练,构建雾图像识别模型,并检验了识别准确率。结果表明：机器学习能够有效识别雾图像,随机森林算法的识别效果优于其余3种算法。对于能见度超过1500 m的无雾天气,模型的识别准确率为100%,对于能见度在1000—1500 m范围内的轻雾、能见度低于50 m的强浓雾,模型的识别准确率在90%以上,对于能见度在50—1000 m范围内的雾、大雾和浓雾,识别准确率超过70%。     

Upper- and Lower-tropospheric Circulation Anomalies Associated with Interannual Variation of Pakistan Rainfall during Summer

This study investigated the large-scale circulation anomalies, in both the upper and lower troposphere, associated with the interannual variation of rainfall in Pakistan during summer, using the station observation data in this country and circulation data of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis from 1981 to 2017. Results showed that the upper-and lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies associated with monthly rainfall variability exhibit similar features from June to August, so analyses were performed on ...