Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

Abstract:  We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case–control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species ( n = 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p = 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.     

我国淡水水域光合产物的气候生产力探讨

根据太阳辐射在水体中的有效分布、生长季水温和浮游植物光合生态特性等因子,模拟计算了我国大陆东部淡水水域的光合生产力、气候生产力及其季节变化的地理规律。从中得知,这些水域初级产物的年气候生产力主要呈纬向分布,由南向北递减,各地范围在 1.6-24.4gC/m²·a之间,长江以南是>15.0gC/m²·a的高值区,长城以北和四川盆地为<10.0gC/m²·a的低值区,因此,在气候生产力高值区有可能充分利用气候资源优势,开发低成本的自然淡水水域渔业;而在低生产力区,受自然资源的局限其自然捕鱼量需适量控制,因地制宜。     

常减压蒸馏装置改造危险因素分析及安全对策

应用危险性预分析法,对一套常减压蒸馏装置扩容改造施工的危险因素进行分析,制定出相应的防范对策,以确保改造工作的安全.     

Sensitivity experiments and assessment of climatic changes in China induced by greenhouse effect

Climatic changes can be separated into two parts: natural changes -and human activity influenced on climatic changes. The observed data could not only show the effects caused by human activity. Several simulated results as simulated by the GCMs induced by the greenhouse effects in China .have been analysed. It is shown that an obvious warming of about 3-6℃ in winter and 2-5℃ in summer in China as simulated by the GCMs induced by doubling CO2 have been found. There are getting drier or wetter regions in China due to doubled CO2 as simulated by most of models. Comparing the simulated results with the observed data in China, some simulated results are able to be believed. The GCMs should be improved, especially in the regional areas.     

建设农村小康社会与发展生态农业

论述生态农业在建设农村小康社会中的重要作用，分析生态农业面临的形势和问题，并提出政策建议。     

"绿色会计"理论初探

由于自然资源的掠夺性开发和以牺牲环境为代价赚取经济利益最大化的现象还不同程度存在,使扣除经济活动中投入的环境成本后的国民生产总值--绿色GDP得到普遍关注.绿色会计是为保护生态环境而研究生态环境成本和价值、提供生态环境变化信息的环境会计,已越来越受到人们关注.文章就绿色会计概念、目标、主体、客体、科目设置及信息披露作为重点,进行了初步探讨.     

含半无限长裂纹压电材料的Ⅲ型强度因子

研究了含半无限长裂纹压电材料在平面内电场和反平面荷载作用下的问题 ,得到了满足拉普拉斯方程、裂纹面边界条件的位移函数解和电势函数解及电弹场的基本解 ,并得到了应力、应变、电位移强度因子和能量释放率。研究结果表明 ,在裂尖 ,电场强度没有奇异性 ,而应变、应力、电位移具有奇异性。     

岷江上游半干旱河谷土壤成土特征研究：以大沟流域为例

岷江上游半干旱河谷位于新构造运动活动带，其土壤形成和发育过程有着鲜明的区域特征。本文结合该区域的自然地理特点，综合分析各成土因素和土壤性状，对该区域土壤的成土特征进行了深入的分析和研究。     

循环流化床锅炉脱硫的影响因素分析

较为系统的分析了影响循环流化床锅炉脱硫的各因素,其中包括运行床温、Ca与S物质的量、床料粒度、流化速度、以及SO_2在炉膛停留时间等,提出在不同运行条件下利用拟合曲线找出最佳脱硫工况。     

典型湖泊水华特征及相关影响因素分析

通过2011-2015年对太湖、巢湖和滇池水华高发季节的连续监测,以藻类密度和水华面积为判据评价了3个湖体的水华情况及变化趋势,探讨了水华发生的主要影响因素。结果表明：太湖水华程度以"轻度水华"为主,巢湖水华程度以"轻微水华"为主,滇池水华程度以"中度水华"为主;太湖、巢湖和滇池水华规模均以"零星性水华"为主;太湖和巢湖藻类密度与水温、pH、溶解氧、总氮、总磷和高锰酸盐指数均呈显著正相关,与透明度呈显著负相关,与氨氮无显著相关性;滇池藻类密度与水温、总磷和高锰酸盐指数均呈显著正相关,与透明度和氨氮呈显著负相关,与pH、溶解氧和总氮无显著相关性。