This paper reviews the knowledge on effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Europe and the consequences for policy and research. Warming is expected to lead to a northward expansion of suitable cropping areas and a reduction of the growing period of determinate crops (e.g. cereals), but an increase for indeterminate crops (e.g. root crops). Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will directly enhance plant productivity and also increase resource use efficiencies.
In northern areas climate change may produce positive effects on agriculture through introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. Disadvantages may be an increase in the need for plant protection, the risk of nutrient leaching and the turnover of soil organic matter. In southern areas the disadvantages will predominate. The possible increase in water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification in the Mediterranean and southeastern parts of Europe.
Policy will have to support the adaptation of European agriculture to climate change by encouraging the flexibility of land use, crop production, farming systems etc. In doing so, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture, and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and social functions in different European regions. Policy will also need to be concerned with agricultural strategies to mitigate climate change through a reduction in emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, an increase in carbon sequestration in agricultural soils and the growing of energy crops to substitute fossil energy use. The policies to support adaptation and mitigation to climate change will need to be linked closely to the development of agri-environmental schemes in the European Union Common Agricultural Policy.
Research will have further to deal with the effect on secondary factors of agricultural production, on the quality of crop and animal production, of changes in frequency of isolated and extreme weather events on agricultural production, and the interaction with the surrounding natural ecosystems. There is also a need to study combined effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies, and include assessments of the consequences on current efforts in agricultural policy to develop a sustainable agriculture that also preserves environmental and social values in the rural society. 相似文献
Using CROPGRO-Chickpea model (revised version), we investigated the impacts of climate change on the productivity of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) at selected sites in South Asia (Hisar, Indore and Nandhyal in India and Zaloke in Myanmar) and East Africa (Debre Zeit in Ethiopia, Kabete in Kenya and Ukiriguru in Tanzania). We also investigated the potential benefits of incorporating drought and heat tolerance traits in chickpea using the chickpea model and the virtual cultivars approach. As compared to the baseline climate, the climate change by 2050 (including CO2) increased the yield of chickpea by 17% both at Hisar and Indore, 18% at Zaloke, 25% at Debre Zeit and 18% at Kabete; whereas the yields decreased by 16% at Nandhyal and 7% at Ukiriguru. The yield benefit due to increased CO2 by 2050 ranged from 7 to 20% across sites as compared to the yields under current atmospheric CO2 concentration; while the changes in temperature and rainfall had either positive or negative impact on yield at the sites. Yield potential traits (maximum leaf photosynthesis rate, partitioning of daily growth to pods and seed-filling duration each increased by 10%) increased the yield of virtual cultivars up to 12%. Yield benefit due to drought tolerance across sites was up to 22% under both baseline and climate change scenarios. Heat tolerance increased the yield of chickpea up to 9% at Hisar and Indore under baseline climate, and up to 13% at Hisar, Indore, Nandhyal and Ukiriguru under climate change. At other sites (Zaloke, Debre Zeit and Kabete) the incorporation of heat tolerance under climate change had no beneficial effect on yield. Considering varied crop responses to each plant trait across sites, this study was useful in prioritizing the plant traits for location-specific breeding of chickpea cultivars for higher yields under climate change at the selected sites in South Asia and East Africa. 相似文献
Shade is one of the important limiting factors in intercropped agro-ecosystems. Objective of this work is to analyze the role
of eight foliar traits of juvenile plants of five different species of Jasminum grown under coconut shade. The results reveal the shade tolerant J. pubescence to produce more number of nodes and longer shoots in all the three seasons studied. J. grandiflorum produced longer leaves and internodal distance than other species tested. Winter season shoots were longer with more number
of nodes and longer internodal distances than rainy season. Results are discussed in relation to the adaptive behavior of
plants to shade. 相似文献
Adaptive and wood quality trait data were collected and analyzed on commercially available Juglans regia and J. regia×J. nigra provenances and progenies planted across Europe in a multi-site network. A total of 19 seed sources, replicated 35 times per site, were planted at 13 sites from 5 European countries, encompassing the potential distribution area of timber production plantation sites. The following traits were evaluated: survival, height, diameter at breast height, stem form, apical dominance, vegetative budbreak, along with biotic and abiotic damage. Mean values were significantly different both among provenances/progenies and sites. Most common damage was late spring and early autumn frost. Bud break ranking was significantly correlated with provenance and progeny origin. Although J. regia is fast growing, southern European early budbreak plant material should not be planted under most middle European conditions where late spring frost can be expected, as it has a significant negative impact on architectural (and thus wood quality) traits. Hybrid J. regia×J. nigra progeny performed better than J. regia provenances/progenies for most traits measured. Differences were significantly in favor of hybrids at sites with medium to low fertility, although some locally selected seed sources tended to perform as well as hybrids on high fertility sites. 相似文献
Choosing germplasm based on elite and diverse genetic sources is essential for the genetic improvement of maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids. The objectives of this research were to evaluate the agronomic and economic potential of maize population and
single-cross hybrids and whether significant maternal (ME) and reciprocal effects (RE) reside in elite population hybrids
for seed production purposes. Seven elite maize populations currently under recurrent selection at North Dakota State University
(NDSU) [NDSCD(M-S)C11, NDSAB(MER-FS)C14, BS21(R)C7, BS22(R)C7, LEAMING(S)C4, CGL(S1-S2)C5 and CGSS(S1-S2)C5] were crossed in a diallel mating design to form 42 population hybrids, including their reciprocals. The 42 population
hybrids with eight single-cross hybrids were evaluated at six U.S. North Central locations in 2005. Data collected across
locations indicated that differences across genotypes were significant (P ≤ 0.05) for all traits observed, except for grain yield ear components. General combining ability (GCA) effects were on average
larger than specific combining ability (SCA) effects. ME and RE were not significant for all traits, except for ear height.
The large grain yield differences between macro-environments were reflected in the ranking of genotypes, with BS21(R)C7 × BS22(R)C7
being the top performer in eastern environments and CGSS(S1-S2)C5 × NDSAB(MER-FS)C14 being the top one across western environments
where drought is the major limitation. The increased ethanol production and demand from maize make test weight (and grain
quality), earliness, lodging resistance, and drought tolerance as important as grain yield for maintaining a sustainable maize-ethanol
relationship.
Part of the thesis submitted by McDonald B. Jumbo in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a MS degree at North Dakota
State University. 相似文献
This study analyzes the impacts of climate change on maize yields using an econometric model that incorporates climate, economic, and technology variables. The major finding is climate change will not universally cause negative impacts of maize yields in the United States and China. The results of a simulation of climate change on maize yields over the period 2008-2030 show that a combination of changes in temperature and precipitation can either bring positive or negative effects on maize yields. Furthermore, variation in regional climatic and economic conditions makes the impacts of climatic change on maize yields substantially different in different regions. In this research, the impacts of climate change on maize yields are not simply examined by climate factors. Economic and technology adaptation effects on maize yields are also incorporated. Thus, even with significant changes in climate conditions that alter the maize crop’s growing environment and affect crop yields, a decrease in maize supply due to a decrease in maize yields would lead to an increase in the maize price, which in turn would induce farmers to add more investments in production inputs to raise yields. Thus, the decrease in actual yields may not be as dramatic as predicted in only climate factor considered cases. In this research, findings gained from the study can be used for early-staged policymaking decisions and advanced problem prevention programs. To ensure the continuous increase in maize yields in the future, further studies and research, as well as efficient environmental policies and actions are required. 相似文献
The concept of robustness refers to the combination of a high production potential and a low sensitivity to environmental perturbations. The importance of robustness-related traits in breeding objectives is progressively increasing toward the production of animals with a high production level in a wide range of climatic conditions and production systems, together with a high level of animal welfare. Current strategies to increase robustness include selection for "functional traits," such as skeletal and cardiovascular integrity, disease resistance, and mortality at various stages. It is also possible to use global evaluation of sensitivity to the environment (eg reaction norm analysis or canalization), but these techniques are difficult to implement in practice. The glucocorticoid hormones released by the adrenal cortex exert a wide range of effects on metabolism, the cardiovascular system, inflammatory processes, and brain function, for example. Protein catabolism toward energy production and storage (lipids and glycogen) supports their pivotal role in stress responses aiming at the adaptation and survival of individuals under strong environmental pressure. Large individual variations have been described in adrenocortical axis activity, with important physiopathological consequences. In terms of animal production, higher cortisol levels have negative effects on growth rate and feed efficiency and increase the fat:lean ratio of carcasses. On the contrary, cortisol has positive effects on functional traits and adaptation. Intense selection for lean tissue growth and more generally high protein output during the past decades has concomitantly reduced cortisol production, which may be responsible for the negative effects of selection on functional traits. In this paper, we review experimental evidence suggesting that the balance between production and functional traits was modified in favor of improved robustness by selecting animals with higher adrenocortical axis activity, as well as the molecular genetic tools that can be used to fine-tune this objective. 相似文献
Specific breeding for organic systems may help reduce their yield gap relative to conventional systems by exploiting genotype × system (GS) interaction. Likewise, specific breeding for distinct subregions within a region could capitalize on genotype × location (GL) interaction. Grain yield and test weight of common wheat varieties were evaluated under organic and conventional systems in ten locations spanning from northern to southern Italy, with the objectives of: (i) comparing production systems; (ii) investigating the extent of GS and GL interactions and their relationship with genotypic and environmental characteristics; and (iii) preliminarily comparing, in terms of predicted selection gains, different strategies to cope with GS and GL effects. These effects were investigated in the 2-year Data set 1 including seven genotypes. GS effects were also assessed in the annual Data sets 2 and 3 including 13 and 11 genotypes, respectively. The yield reduction of organic systems relative to conventional ones averaged 28% in Data set 1, 29% in Data set 2 and 14% in Data set 3. Organic systems also tended to a modest test weight reduction. Genetic correlations between systems ranged from high to very high (0.88 ≤ rg ≤ 0.98) for yield and test weight, owing to nil or limited GS interaction. Broad-sense heritability tended to be higher in conventional systems than organic ones for yield in two data sets (mainly due to lower experimental error) while being similar in the two systems in the other cases. Predicted selection gains suggested nil (yield) or very modest (test weight) advantage of direct selection in organic systems relative to indirect selection in conventional systems, when targeting organic systems. The scope for selection only in conventional systems was reinforced when comparing predicted gains for selection scenarios which target both systems in relation to their foreseeable marketing importance. GL effects for yield and test weight were significant and were modeled by additive main effects and multiplicative interaction analysis. Site classification based on GL effects for yield revealed a larger subregion A including northern and central Italy and a smaller subregion B comprising southern Italy, accordingly with previous, independent studies. Yield selection only in subregion A (with indirect selection gain for subregion B) implied slightly higher predicted gain for A (+4%) and much lower gain for B (−24%) relative to independent, direct selection in each subregion. Selection for specific geoclimatic subregions may have greater importance than selection for specific production systems. 相似文献
The genetic variation in seed weight, seed number per kg and seedling traits was compared among eight Acacia senegal provenances originating from the clay plain (east) and sand plains (west) of the gum belt in Sudan. The main objective of
this study was to identify germplasm sources of A. senegal that have a good seed germination capacity and seedling traits suitable for reforestation in the clay-soil part of the dryland
gum belt in the Blue Nile region in Sudan. A specific objective was to tentatively explore the adaptive strategy of A. senegal populations. Seventeen-week-old seedlings were planted in the field at spacing of 3 m × 3 m, giving 100 trees per plot and
replication; within a randomized complete block design with four replications. The experimental site was in the clay plain
region. Seed variables showed significant differences. Clay plain provenances showed considerable variation in seed weight
and seed number. They had the smallest seed weight but the highest seed number, while the sand (western) provenances had the
largest seed weight but lowest seed number. Seedling branch number, root length, root to shoot ratio and shoot dry weight
differed significantly among the provenances 12 weeks after germination. Clay provenances had the highest branch number and
shoot dry weight but the shortest roots and lowest root to shoot ratio. This was interpreted as showing better adaptation
to the site in these local provenances in comparison to those originating from the western sandy soil regions. High positive
correlations were observed between seedling variables, such as root nodule and branch numbers; this could be used for early
selection. The variation was greater between provenance groups than within them, suggesting that especially selection among
groups would yield genetic gain. 相似文献