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1.
This paper proposes an original method for obtaining analytical approximations of the invariant probability density function of multi-dimensional Hamiltonian dissipative dynamic systems under Gaussian white noise excitations, with linear non-conservative parts and nonlinear conservative parts. The method is based on an exact result and a heuristic argument. Its pertinence is attested by numerical tests. 相似文献
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针对目前石油钻采用清蜡绞车总体结构设计不合理以及实用性不强等技术难题,研制开发了自喷井电动清蜡绞车。该绞车的核心部件包括过载保护安全装置、牙嵌离合器轴套、自动/手动互换装置、计量装置以及密封装置。在清蜡绞车自动工作中,当清蜡刮刀遇到较大阻力时,清蜡绞车将接收到反馈信号,可实现智能停车,自动转换为手动状态,以便操作人员检查和排除故障,从而确保了操作的安全性,延长了设备的使用寿命。1000余台电动清蜡绞车的现场应用表明,该产品可以大大降低原油的开采成本,具有良好的经济效益和社会效益。 相似文献
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茅金根 ,梁秀文 ,杨午阳 ,冯有奎 .等偏移距自动初至静校正 .石油地球物理勘探 ,2 0 0 2 ,37(5 ) :4 6 9~ 4 72 本文提出一种自动计算静校正量的新方法。它首先在等偏移距道集内对相邻道的初至波采用高精度相关构建一个关于炮、检时差的超大矩阵方程 ,然后采用优化统计迭代算法求解炮点和检波点的静校正量 ,并用概率分布函数确定精确的炮、检静校正量 ,最后用误差校正函数消除炮、检静校正误差。实际资料处理结果表明 ,本方法自动、省时、精度高。 相似文献
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A probabilistic model for cleavage fracture with a length scale--parameter estimation and predictions of stationary crack experiments 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This study presents a large experimental investigation in the transition temperature region on a modified A508 steel. Tests were carried out on single-edge-notch-bend specimens with three different crack depth over specimen width ratios to capture the strong constraint effect on fracture toughness. Three test temperatures were considered, covering a range of 85 °C. All specimens failed by cleavage fracture prior to ductile tearing. A recently proposed probabilistic model for the cumulative failure by cleavage was applied to the comprehensive sets of experimental data. This modified weakest link model incorporates a length scale, which together with a threshold stress reduce the scatter in predicted toughness distributions as well as introduces a fracture toughness threshold value. Model parameters were estimated by a robust procedure, which is crucial in applications of probabilistic models to real structures. The conformity between predicted and experimental toughness distributions, respectively, were notable at all the test temperatures. 相似文献
7.
The discrimination problem for two normal populations with the same covariance matrix when additional information on the population is available is considered. A study of the robustness properties against training sample contamination of classification rules that incorporate this additional information is performed. These rules have received recently attention where their total misclassification probability (TMP) is proved to be lower than Fisher's linear discriminant rule. The results of a simulation study on the TMP which compares the behaviour of the new rules against Fisher's rule and some of its robustified versions under different types of contamination are presented. These results show that the rules that incorporate the additional information not only have lower TMP, but they also prevent against some types of contamination. In order to achieve prevention from all types of contamination a robustifed version of these rules is recommended. 相似文献
8.
We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés. 相似文献
9.
通过对抽样检验方法的研究,确立了区间估计的下限公式,用来在已知样本值的情况下确定导弹单发命中概率出现在该区间内的置信水平和精确度。 相似文献
10.
Quantitative analyses of flow and stage data, remote sensing and geographic information systems analysis, and field studies were used to assess the impact of dams and diversions on the point bar habitat of the Sacramento Valley Tiger Beetle (Cicindela hirticollis abrupta). The reaches of interest include sites of known historic populations of C. h. abrupta along the Sacramento River from approximately 8 km north of Colusa southward to the confluence with the Feather River and along the Feather River between Yuba City and its confluence with the Sacramento River. The results from this study show that construction of two major dams has altered flows such that prolonged and increased flows during summer, fall, and early winter have most likely disrupted life cycles, flooded larvae, drowned overwintering adults and led to high mortality. Additionally, habitat availability has decreased over time because point bars have decreased in number and area causing increased distances between populations and isolation of populations. Moreover, point bar armouring, channel scouring, altered flows, redirected flows through weirs, and lithologic controls have produced a bimodal distribution of mean grain sizes in the Sacramento River in which the more northern bars contain gravel deposits and more southern bars possess fine sands. These conditions negatively alter moisture retention and sediment compaction and, consequently, burrowing conditions needed by this tiger beetle. Additionally, more stabilized flows (reduced variability) and increased fine‐grained deposition have enabled development and encroachment of vegetation onto the sand bars. Finally, human stresses, such as foot traffic and vehicular traffic may have interfered with burrowing, ovipositing, and foraging. The combination of these stress factors has most likely led to a reduction in source populations and, ultimately, the apparent extirpation of the entire metapopulation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献