INVESTIGATING THE VIABILITY OF SQUIRREL POPULATIONS; A MODELING APPROACH FOR THE ISLAND OF LESVOS,GREECE

ABSTRACT. Habitat loss and fragmentation are considered to be the most important factors responsible for population decreases in small mammal populations. Particularly important is also the effect of insularity that can act syn‐ergistically with the previous factors. Population Viability Analysis (PVA) combines the spatial component of the problem with the species population structure offering an integrated platform for testing and assessing the effects of critical parameters upon the population viability. Various management options can also be quantified and tested. In the case of Sciurus anomalous, a vulnerable squirrel species endemic in Lesvos, a series of threats and management problems were identified and assessed. A stochastic simulation model was developed and parameterized with field data for the species using the program Ramas/GIS. The results suggested that special attention has to be paid to the planning of road system networks and to stopping illegal hunting, especially when extinction risks for vulnerable populations are higher with the above threats.     

Evaluating the potential of vaccine-induced type replacement for high-risk human papillomaviruses

Persistent infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is the main cause of cervical cancer. Current HPV vaccines protect against both HPV-16 and -18, which are known to cause approximately 70% of cervical cancer cases worldwide. These vaccines have shown to be highly effective in preventing infection by their targeted types. However, there is a broad diversity of HPV types not targeted by the vaccines, and there is controversy about a possible increase in the prevalence of these non-targeted types after a vaccination program. Here, we propose a within-host metapopulation model to study the possibility of vaccine-induced type replacement for oncogenic types. It is generally believed that the theoretical possibility of type replacement strongly depends on the existence of natural type competition mechanisms. Nevertheless, our results suggest that type replacement is viable at the within-host level if the degree of cross-protection induced by the vaccine is low, even if there is no underlying competition among HPV types. Consequently, the impact of current HPV vaccines at both the immunological and epidemiological levels rely upon the level of cross-protection.     

Stochastic resonance for a metapopulation system driven by multiplicative and additive colored noises

We investigate the stochastic resonance(SR) phenomenon induced by the periodic signal in a metapopulation system with colored noises. The analytical expression of signal-to-noise is derived in the adiabatic limit. By numerical calculation, the effects of the addictive noise intensity, the multiplicative noise intensity and two noise self-correlation times on SNR are respectively discussed. It shows that:(i) in the case that the addictive noise intensity M takes a small value, a SR phenomenon for the curve of SNR appears; however, when M takes a large value, SNR turns into a monotonic function on the multiplicative noise intensity Q.(ii) The resonance peaks in the plots of the multiplicative noise intensity Q versus its self-correlation time τ1 and the addictive noise intensity M versus its self-correlation time τ2 translate in parallel. Meanwhile, a parallel translation also appears in the plots of τ1 versus Q and τ2 versus M.(iii) The interactive effects between self-correlation times τ1 and τ2 are opposite.     

BENEFITS AND RISKS OF INCREASED SPATIAL RESOLUTION IN THE MANAGEMENT OF FISHERY METAPOPULATIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Abstract Stock assessments and harvest guidelines are typically based on the concept of a “fish stock,” which may encompass a very large area. The presence of discrete subpopulations within managed fish stocks presents risks and opportunities for fishery management. Failure to manage catch at the same scale as the true population structure can lead to extirpation of discrete subpopulations and to declines in the productivity of the larger metapopulation. However, it may be difficult and costly to assess and manage stocks at a finer spatial scale, and there is likely greater uncertainty about the size of substocks than about the aggregate stock. We use a two‐area simulation model to compare the performance of fishery management at different spatial resolutions when there is uncertainty about growth, the size of the total population, and the relative size of the subpopulations. We show that relative benefits of finer scale management, in terms of profits and risks of depleting subpopulations, depend on a number of biological, technical, and economic factors. In some cases it may be both less risky and more profitable to manage the fishery with a single total allowable catch, even when there are biologically separate fish populations in the two areas.     

噪声对集合种群稳定性的影响

本文在Levins模型的基础上研究了噪声对集合种群的稳定性的影响. 应用Fokker-Planck方程得到了系统的稳态概率分布函数和平均灭绝时间. 经过数值分析,结果如下: 无关联(λ=0 λ为加性噪声和乘性噪声之间的关联强度)时, 加性噪声强度α和乘性噪声强度D均弱化集合种群的稳定性; 噪声之间关联(λ≠0)时, 随着λ的增大,系统的稳定性被增强. 当-(c-e-D)²/(4c√Dα)<λ<1时, λ诱导"共振抑制"现象. D存在一个临界值, 小于临界值时, D可以增强系统的稳定性.     

集合种群的延时效应

用简化的延时率函数模型对集合种群的稳定性和平均灭绝时间进行研究.对集合种群的定态概率分布函数和平均首通时间的分析和计算,发现：1)延迟时间增大将使集合种群在斑块中占有率减小;2) 随延迟时间增大,集合种群的灭绝时间将会减小. 关键词： 集合种群 延时效应 灭绝时间     

色交叉关联噪声作用下集合种群的稳定性和平均灭绝时间

在Levins模型的基础上研究了色交叉关联噪声对集合种群稳定性的影响, 应用Fokker-Plank方程得到了系统的稳态概率密度函数, 运用最快下降法得到了平均灭绝时间的解析式. 结果表明: 两噪声色关联时, 加性噪声强度和乘性噪声强度均弱化集合种群的稳定性; 噪声关联强度强化集合种群的稳定性. 两噪声之间负关联时, 平均灭绝时间是加性噪声强度和乘性噪声强度的减函数, 是噪声关联时间的增函数; 两噪声之间正关联时, 平均灭绝时间是加性噪声强度和噪声关联时间乘性噪声强度的减函数, 是乘性噪声强度的非单调函数. 关键词： 集合种群 色交叉关联噪声 稳定性 平均灭绝时间     

Extinction Time of a Metapopulation Driven by Colored Correlated Noises

The simplified incidence function model which is driven by the colored correlated noises is employed to investigate the extinction time of a metapopulation perturbed by environments. The approximate Fokker-Planck Equation and the mean first passage time which denotes the extinction time （Tex） are obtained by virtue of the Novikov theorem and the Fox approach. After introducing a noise intensity ratio and a dimensionless parameter R = D /α （D and a are the multiplicative and additive colored noise intensities respectively）, and then performing numerical computations, the results indicate that： （i） The absolute value of correlation strength A and its correlation time τ3 play opposite roles on the Tex; （ii） For the case of 0 〈λ〈 1,α and its correlation time τ2 play opposite roles on the Tex in which R〉 1 is the best condition, and there is one-peak structure on the Tex - D plot; （iii） For the case of-1 〈 λ≤ 0, D and its correlation time τ1 play opposite roles on the Tex in which R 〈 1 is the best condition and there is one-peak structure on the Tex - τ2 plot.     

HARVESTING A TWO-PATCH PREDATOR-PREY METAPOPULATION

ABSTRACT. A mathematical model for a two-patch predator-prey metapoplation is developed as a generalization of single-species metapopulation harvesting theory. We find optimal harvesting strategies using dynamic programming and La-grange multipliers. If predator economic efficiency is relatively high, then we should protect a relative source prey subpopulation in two different ways: directly, with a higher escapement of the relative source prey subpopulation, and indirectly, with a lower escapement of the predator living in the same patch as the relative source prey subpopulation. Numerical examples show that if the growth of the predator is relatively low and there is no difference between prey and predator prices, then it may be optimal to harvest the predator to extinction. While, if the predator is more valuable compared to the prey, then it may be optimal to leave the relative exporter prey subpopulation unharvested. We also discuss how a ‘negative’ harvest might be optimal. A negative harvest might be considered a seeding strategy.     

A METAPOPULATION MODEL FOR FERAL HOGS IN GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK

Feral Hogs (Sus scrofa) are an invasive species that have occupied the Great Smoky Mountains National Park since the early 1900s. Recent studies on vegetation, mast, and harvest history were important for our work. Using these data, a model with discrete time and space was formulated to represent the feral hog dynamics in the Park. Management strategies and key characteristics of the population were investigated. The model uses observed mast variation to help govern population dynamics and results indicate that Park control efforts have limited the growth of the population.