云南几次中强地震热红外异常特征对比研究

云南省位于多个地块交界处，构造活动活跃且地震活动频发。利用中国静止气象卫星风云二号系列相当黑体温度TBB数据，应用小波变换和相对傅氏功率谱的时频相对功率谱方法（T-F RPS），提取并分析了云南省2008年至今发生的5.5级以上地震热红外异常信息，且对比分析了特征周期、特征幅值、异常形态、异常演化过程等参数。结果表明：（1）该系列地震热红外异常信息易于用时频相对功率谱方法（T-F RPS）提取识别，且异常特征具有"出现-扩大-减小-消失"的规律；（2）异常特征周期和持续时间也具有一定的规律性；（3）异常沿着断层延展，震中位于异常边缘一侧或者异常区域交汇地带，发震时刻多位于相对功率谱幅值下降阶段；（4）震级与相对功率谱峰值有一定的相关性，震级高，峰值也较高；（5）地震类型与异常面积有一定的相关性，双震型地震异常面积较大。此外，讨论了地震热红外异常与构造活动、气候状况、天气情况和季节等因素的关系。     

Motzkin numbers out of Random Domino Automaton

Motzkin numbers are derived from a special case of Random Domino Automaton – recently proposed a slowly driven system being a stochastic toy model of earthquakes. It is also a generalisation of 1D Drossel–Schwabl forest-fire model. A solution of the set of equations describing stationary state of Random Domino Automaton in inverse-power case is presented. A link with Motzkin numbers allows to present explicit form of asymptotic behaviour of the automaton.     

Earth surface effects on active faults: An eigenvalue asymptotic analysis

We study in this paper an eigenvalue problem (of Steklov type), modeling slow slip events (such as silent earthquakes, or earthquake nucleation phases) occurring on geological faults. We focus here on a half space formulation with traction free boundary condition: this simulates the earth surface where displacements take place and can be picked up by GPS measurements. We construct an appropriate functional framework attached to a formulation suitable for the half space setting. We perform an asymptotic analysis of the solution with respect to the depth of the fault. Starting from an integral representation for the displacement field, we prove that the differences between the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions attached to the half space problem and those attached to the free space problem, is of the order of d^-2, where d is a depth parameter: intuitively, this was expected as this is also the order of decay of the derivative of the Green's function for our problem. We actually prove faster decay in case of symmetric faults. For all faults, we rigorously obtain a very useful asymptotic formula for the surface displacement, whose dominant part involves a so called seismic moment. We also provide results pertaining to the analysis of the multiplicity of the first eigenvalue in the line segment fault case. Finally we explain how we derived our numerical method for solving for dislocations on faults in the half plane. It involves integral equations combining regular and Hadamard's hypersingular integration kernels.     

Earthquake forecast via neutrino tomography

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for ν_e emitted from a reactor. The case for a ν_e beam from a neutrino factory is also investigated, and it is noted that, because of the typically high energy associated with such neutrinos, the oscillation length is too large and the resultant variation is not practically observable. Our conclusion is that with the present reactor facilities and detection techniques, it is still a difficult task to make an earthquake forecast using such a scheme, though it seems to be possible from a theoretical point of view while ignoring some uncertainties. However, with the development of the geology, especially the knowledge about the fault zone, and with the improvement of the detection techniques, etc., there is hope that a medium-term earthquake forecast would be feasible.     

Instability in a delay-PDE model of earthquake occurrence

Summary Ductile deformation prior to brittle fracture in rocks causes fracture to take place with a time delay after the critical stress for fracture is reached, in the presence of an increasing load stress. We discuss the stability of a stochastic model of interactive earthquake occurrence under the influence of time delays resulting from the ductile process. A threshold for oscillatory behavior is found for large enough coupling and discrete time delays. The system is stable if the time delays are spread over a broad time interval, even for large coupling.     

A Statistical Study of the Correlation between Geomagnetic Storms and M ≥ 7.0 Global Earthquakes during 1957–2020

In order to find out whether the geomagnetic storms and large-mega earthquakes are correlated or not, statistical studies based on Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA), significance analysis, and Z test have been applied to the Dst index data and M ≥ 7.0 global earthquakes during 1957–2020. The results indicate that before M ≥ 7.0 global earthquakes, there are clearly higher probabilities of geomagnetic storms than after them. Geomagnetic storms are more likely to be related with shallow earthquakes rather than deep ones. Further statistical investigations of the results based on cumulative storm hours show consistency with those based on storm days, suggesting that the high probability of geomagnetic storms prior to large-mega earthquakes is significant and robust. Some possible mechanisms such as a reverse piezoelectric effect and/or electroosmotic flow are discussed to explain the statistical correlation. The result might open new perspectives in the complex process of earthquakes and the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere (LAI) coupling.     

地震作用下结构的AMTMD主动控制策略

提出了一种新的控制策略--主动多重调谐质量阻尼器(AMTMD).AMTMD控制系统频率呈线性分布.AMTMD保持相同的刚度和阻尼但质量变化.AMTMD的主动控制力采用Roorda(1975)提出的生成模式.基于结构的广义振型模型,导出了设置AMTMD时结构的动力放大系数(DMF).于是AMTMD优化准则选择为结构最大动力放大系数的最小值的最小化.分别使用位移、速度和加速度传感器,通过最优搜寻,研究了反映AMTMD有效性和鲁棒性的参数.这些参数包括:频率间隔、平均阻尼比、调谐频率比、Min.Min.Max.DMF、标准化反馈增益系数和环增益系数.为比较,同时考虑了多重调谐质量阻尼器和主动调谐质量阻尼器.而且,数值结果表明:AMTMD比MTMD具有更高的有效性和鲁棒性且比ATMD也有更高的有效性.     

热/机械载荷下功能梯度材料矩形厚板的弯曲行为

采用Reddy高阶剪切板理论,考虑材料物性参数随坐标和温度变化的特性,研究在均匀变化的温度场内功能梯度材料矩形板在面内与横向载荷共同作用下的横向弯曲问题,基于一维DQ法和Galerkin技术,给出了一对边固支、另对边任意约束时板弯曲问题的半解析解.以Si3N4/SUS304板为例考察了材料组份、温度场、面内载荷及边界约束条件等对功能梯度材料板弯曲行为的影响.     

Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model

Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with interesting results revealing acceptable to excellent or even outstanding performance.     

The diversity of the physics of earthquakes

Earthquakes exhibit diverse characteristics. Most shallow earthquakes are “brittle” in the sense that they excite seismic waves efficiently. However, some earthquakes are slow, as characterized by tsunami earthquakes and even slower events without any obvious seismic radiation. Also, some earthquakes, like the 1994 Bolivian deep earthquake, involved a large amount of fracture and thermal energy and may be more appropriately called a thermal event, rather than an earthquake. Some earthquakes are caused by processes other than faulting, such as landslides. This diversity can be best understood in terms of the difference in the partition of the released potential energy to radiated, fracture, and thermal energies during an earthquake. This approach requires detailed studies on quantification of earthquakes and estimation of various kinds of energies involved in earthquake processes. This paper reviews the progress in this field from historical and personal points of view and discusses its implications for earthquake damage mitigation.