The impact of the M2 internal tide on data-assimilative model estimates of the surface tide

We use a synthetic data experiment to assess the accuracy of ocean tides estimated from satellite altimetry data, with emphasis on the impact of the phase-locked internal tide, which has a surface expression of several centimeters near its sites of genesis. Previous tidal estimates have regarded this signal as a random measurement error; however, it is deterministic and not scale-separated from the barotropic (surface) tide around complex bathymetric features. The synthetic data experiments show that the internal tide has a negligible impact on the barotropic tidal fields inferred under these circumstances, and the barotropic dissipation (a quadratic functional of the tidal fields) is in good agreement with the energetics of the three-dimensional regional primitive equations model which is the source of the synthetic data.     

A Reconstruction of Observed Profiles in the Sea East of Japan Using Vertical Coupled Temperature-Salinity EOF Modes

It is important to estimate hard-to-observe parameters in the ocean interior from easy-to-observe parameters. This study therefore demostrates a reconstruction of observed temperature and salinity profiles of the sea east of Japan (30°≈40°N, 140°≈150°E). The reconstruction was done by estimating suboptimal state from several values of the observed profiles and/or sea surface dynamic height (SDH) calculated from the profiles. The estimation used a variational method with vertical coupled temperature-salinity empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes. Profiles of temperature and salinity in the subtropical region are effectively reconstructed from in situ temperature profile data, or sea surface temperature (SST) and SDH. For example, the analyzed temperature field from SST and SDH has an accuracy to within 1°C in the subtropical region. Salinity in the sea north of Kuroshio, however, is difficult to estimate because of its complex variability which is less correlated with temperature than in the subtropical region. Sea surface salinity is useful to estimate the subsurface structure. We also show the possibility that the estimation is improved by considering nonlinearity in the equation calculating SDH from temperature and salinity analysis values in order to examine the misfit between analysis and observation. Analysis using TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry data instead of SDH was also performed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Establishment of apparent quantum yield and maximum ecosystem assimilation on Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow ecosystem

The alpine meadow is widely distributed on the Tibetan Plateau with an area of about 1.2×106kn2. Damxung County, located in the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, is the place covered with this typical vegetation. An open-path eddy covariance system was set up in Damxung rangeland station to measure the carbon flux of alpine meadow from July to October,2003. The continuous carbon flux data were used to analyze the relationship between net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), as well as the seasonal patterns of apparent quantum yield (α) and maximum ecosystem assimilation (Pmax).Results showed that the daytime NEE fitted fairly well with the PAR in a rectangular hyperbola function, with α declining in the order of peak growth period (0.0244 μmolCO2 · μmol-1pAR) ＞early growth period ＞ seed maturing period ＞ withering period (0.0098 μmolCO2 · μmol-1pAR).The Pmax did not change greatly during the first three periods, with an average of 0.433mgCO2· m-2· s-1, i.e. 9.829 μmolCO2· m-2· s-1. However, during the withering period, Pmax was only 0.35 mgCO2 · m-2 · s-1, i.e. 7.945 μmolCO2 · m-2 · s-1. Compared with other grassland ecosystems, the α of the Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow ecosystem was much lower.     

Data assimilation (4D-VAR) to forecast flood in shallow-waters with sediment erosion

In this paper, the four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique (4D-VAR) is presented as a tool to forecast floods. Our study is limited to purely hydrological flows and supposes that the weather, here a big rain, has been already forecasted by meteorological services. The technique consists in minimizing, in the sense of Lagrange, the cost function: a measure of the difference between calculated data and available observations, here the water level. This is done under constraints that are the equations of the physical model. In our case, we modified the shallow-water equations to include a simplified sediment transport model. The steepest descent algorithm is then used to find the minimum. This is made possible because we can compute analytically the gradient of the cost function by using the adjoint equations of the model. As an application of the 4D-VAR technique, the overflowing of the Chicoutimi River at the Chute-Garneau dam, during the 1996 flood, is investigated. It is found that the 4D-VAR method reduces the error in the water height forecast even when the erosion model is not activated. In terms of Lyapunov exponents, we estimate the predictability horizon of such an event to be about half-an-hour after a big rain. However, this limit of predictability can be increased by using more observations or by using a finer computational grid.     

Assimilation and Fractional Crystallization Controlled by Transport Process of Crustal Melt: Implications from an Alkali Basalt-Dacite Suite from Rishiri Volcano, Japan

Mechanisms of fractional crystallization with simultaneous crustalassimilation (AFC) are examined for the Kutsugata and Tanetomilavas, an alkali basalt–dacite suite erupted sequentiallyfrom Rishiri Volcano, northern Japan. The major element variationswithin the suite can be explained by boundary layer fractionation;that is, mixing of a magma in the main part of the magma bodywith a fractionated interstitial melt transported from the mushyboundary layer at the floor. Systematic variations in SiO₂ correlatewith variations in the Pb, Sr and Nd isotopic compositions ofthe lavas. The geochemical variations of the lavas are explainedby a constant and relatively low ratio of assimilated mass tocrystallized mass (‘r value’). In the magma chamberin which the Kutsugata and Tanetomi magmas evolved, a strongthermal gradient was present and it is suggested that the marginalpart of the reservoir was completely solidified. The assimilantwas transported by crack flow from the partially fused floorcrust to the partially crystallized floor mush zone throughfractures in the solidified margin, formed mainly by thermalstresses resulting from cooling of the solidified margin andheating of the crust. The crustal melt was then mixed with thefractionated interstitial melt in the mushy zone, and the mixedmelt was further transported by compositional convection tothe main magma, causing its geochemical evolution to be characteristicof AFC. The volume flux of the assimilant from the crust tothe magma chamber is suggested to have decreased progressivelywith time (proportional to t^–1/2), and was about 3 x 10^–2m/year at t = 10 years and 1 x 10^–2 m/year at t = 100years. It has been commonly considered that the heat balancebetween magmas and the surrounding crust controls the couplingof assimilation and fractional crystallization processes (i.e.absolute value of r). However, it is inferred from this studythat the ratio of assimilated mass to crystallized mass canbe controlled by the transport process of the assimilant fromthe crust to magma chambers. KEY WORDS: assimilation and fractional crystallization; mass balance model; magma chamber; melt transport; Pb isotope     

暴雨模拟中多普勒雷达径向速度变分同化的应用

针对2008年6月广东地区的一次强降雨过程,利用WRF中尺度数值模式及其三维变分同化系统(WRF-3DVAR),进行了多普勒雷达径向速度变分同化对暴雨过程模拟效果影响研究。结果表明:WRF-3DVAR能够有效地同化多普勒雷达径向速度,同化后的主要影响在于改进了初始动力场,使得初始场包含有更详尽的中尺度特征信息,进而显著提高模式对广东局地暴雨过程的模拟效果。在高分辨率中尺度数值模式中有效地利用多普勒天气雷达资料,是提高中尺度降雨预报的关键。     

利用ARGO资料改进海洋资料同化和海洋模式中的物理过程

国际ARGO计划的实施每年将可提供多达 10万个剖面 (0～ 2 0 0 0m水深 )的海水温度和盐度资料 ,这些资料的获取无疑将会大大促进海洋和大气科学的发展 ,使人们加深对海洋过程的了解 ,揭示海 气相互作用的机理 ,为长期天气预报和短期气候预测提供模式初始场 ,提高长期天气预报和短期气候预测的能力。如何利用这些资料开展研究工作以及在实际业务中应用这些资料是目前大气和海洋科学界的一个前沿课题。本研究将ARGO浮标资料引入了国家气候中心的NCC GODAS同化系统 ,结果分析表明 ,同化ARGO资料后所得到的海温场在三大洋中不仅在温度数值的大小 ,而且在分布形式方面都与观测场具有较好的一致性 ,可以很好地反映出观测到的冬季和夏季海温的分布形式以及海温的季节变化特征和异常特征。本研究还应用最新的ARGO海洋观测资料 ,通过建立新的热带西太平洋次表层海温参数化方案 ,改进了Zebiak Cane(1987)海洋模式 (ZC模式 ) ,克服了ZC模式几乎没有模拟赤道西太平洋表层和次表层海温变化能力的缺陷。在ZC模式中引用新的次表层海温参数化方案后 ,在赤道西太平洋不仅次表层海温的模拟得到了改善 ,对海面温度异常的模拟也有了较大的改进 ,不仅模拟出了赤道西太平洋表层和次表层海温异常的年际变化特征 ,也模拟出了与观     

在NCEPGDAS中同化MSG和GOES资料

首次将MSG-2（Meteosat Second Generation-2）卫星上的旋转增强可见光及红外成像仪（Spin—ning Enhanced Visibleand Infrared Imager,SEVIRI）的观测资料同化到美国国家环境预报中心（Na—tional Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP）全球资料同化系统（globaldataassimilationsys—tern,GDAS）中。对当前的地球静止业务环境卫星（Geostationary Operational Environmental Satel—lite,GOES）成像仪资料的同化问题也进行了进一步探讨。利用CRTM（The Community Radiative Transfer Model）模式,对SEVIRI辐射率观测资料进行了模拟。为了对红外辐射率资料进行模拟,CRTM模式中的几个关键部分得到改进,例如：动态更新地面发射率资料以及采用了快速精确的气体吸收模块。为了改进对SEVIRI和GOES成像仪辐射率资料的模拟效果,采用了GSICS（The Global Space—Based Inter—Calibration System）标定订正。初步研究结果表明,包含对SEVIRI辐射率资料的水汽通道（6．25和7．35μm）和二氧化碳通道（13．40μm）的同化对GFS（Global Forecast System）6d预报具有显著的正影响;而对其他5个SEVIRI红外窗口通道资料的同化则减小了这种正影响。通过应用GSICS标定算法,订正了SEVIRI和GOES-12成像仪观测资料的偏差,提高了对GFS预报的影响。此外,还需作进一步研究来提高对SEVIRI红外窗口通道辐射率资料同化的有效性。     

集合卡尔曼滤波同化中雷达位置的敏感性研究

针对对流尺度集合卡尔曼滤波（EnKF）雷达资料同化中雷达位置对同化的影响进行研究。为了考察强对流出现在雷达不同方位时集合卡尔曼滤波同化雷达资料的能力,以一个理想风暴为例,设计了8个均匀分布在模拟区域周围的模拟雷达进行试验。单雷达同化试验中,初期同化对雷达位置较敏感,而十几个循环后对雷达方位的敏感性降低。造成初期同化效果较差的雷达观测位于模拟区域正南和正北方向,这两部雷达与模拟区域中心的连线垂直于风暴移动方向（即环境气流的方向）。双雷达试验的结果表明,正东、正南、正西和正北方向的雷达组合观测会使同化初期误差较大,这说明并不是所有与风暴连线成90°的雷达组合都能在短时同化中得到合理的分析结果,还需要都处于模拟区域对角线上（即与环境气流成45°夹角）,同化效果才较好。短时同化后的确定性预报结果表明,较大分析误差也会导致较大预报误差。这些分析误差主要是由于同化初期不准确的集合平均场驱动出的不合理的背景误差协方差造成的。当背景场随着同化循环得到改进后,驱动出的合理的背景误差协方差使得不同位置雷达同化造成的差异逐步减小。基于上述结果,引入迭代集合均方根滤波（iEnSRF）算法,结果显示使用该算法后,雷达位置对同化效果的影响减小,同化不同位置的雷达资料均能有效降低分析和预报误差。