TS50全站仪配合多测回测角软件在地铁基坑监测中的应用

TS50全站仪配合徕卡多测回测角软件能够自动瞄准、自动观测,具有高智能、高精度的特点,从而在地铁基坑监测领域得到广泛的应用.文章结合济南市轨道交通R1线前大彦站基坑监测项目实践,对测量方法、数据处理、监测效果等方面进行论述.实际应用表明:基于TS50全站仪的多测回测角软件能提供及时可靠的监测数据,科学指导基坑施工,保证...     

高分辨率模式雷达回波预报能力分析

利用2018年7—8月GRAPES_3 km、东北短临(WRFRUC)高分辨率模式综合雷达回波预报数据和辽宁省SWAN雷达组合反射率(MCR)实况,基于邻域法FSS评分指数,分析模式在台风北上和副热带高压边缘暴雨过程中的雷达回波预报能力。结果表明:两家模式在不同降水过程中对小阈值雷达回波有较好的预报技巧,随着回波量级增大,模式预报FSS逐渐减小,雷达回波55 dBz时,FSS甚至为0。当邻域半径是3时,35 dBz以下的回波预报中GRAPES模式在台风北上暴雨中的预报技巧低于副热带高压边缘,35 dBz则相反。WRFRUC模式始终表现为台风北上暴雨中预报较好。当邻域半径9时,WRFRUC模式在台风暴雨中的FSS评分高于GRAPES模式,GRAPES模式在副热带高压暴雨中的FSS评分始终高于WRFRUC模式。GRAPES和WRFRUC模式的最大FSS评分技巧均出现在邻域半径是11时,分别为0.239和0.195。GRAPES模式中FSS评分在12 h逐小时预报中前3个时次较强,WRFRUC模式则表现为中间时次强,两头弱。     

Modifications of resonant column and torsional shear device for the large strain

Conventional RC/TS (resonant column and torsional shear) devices use a specimen with an aspect ratio (height-to-diameter) of 2:1 and this generates a maximum shear strain in the sample of about 1.5% at the maximum rotation of the driving system. The objective of this study is to modify the RC/TS device to generate higher strain amplitude. The modifications include a new base pedestal to overcome the limitations in the travel of the drive system and modification of the coil wiring to increase torque. The effects of the new coil wire on torque in the electromagnetic drive system were evaluated and the application of the modified device was illustrated using sand soil.     

A new method for establishing hydrologic fidelity of snow depth measurements based on snowmelt–runoff hydrographs

For snowmelt-driven flood studies, snow water equivalent (SWE) is frequently estimated using snow depth data. Accurate measurements of snow depth are important in providing data for continuous hydrologic simulations of such watersheds. A new hydrologic fidelity metric is proposed in this study to evaluate the potential contribution of particular snow depth datasets to flow characteristics using observed data and hydrologic modeling using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Data-based hydrologic fidelity of snow depth measurements is defined as a categorical skill score between the snow depth in the watershed and the hydrograph peak or volume at the watershed outlet. Similarly, model-based hydrologic fidelity is defined as a categorical skill score between the model-simulated snow depth and the model-simulated hydrograph peak or volume. The proposed framework is illustrated using the Pecatonica River watershed in the USA, indicating which sites have a higher hydrologic fidelity, which is preferred in hydrologic studies.     

新型冠状病毒肺炎患者胸部CT表现及影像学评分

目的：探讨新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）的胸部CT表现,进行CT评分和分期。资料与方法：回顾性分析上饶市104例确诊的COVID-19患者胸部CT图像,包括病变累及范围、分布模式、形态及密度等特点,并对病灶累及范围进行半定量评分。结果：88例患者胸部CT见异常表现,累及两个及以上肺叶的有74例（72%）,病灶以外周/胸膜下分布为主（60例,58%）。CT表现为单纯磨玻璃影的有29例（28%）,53例（51%）为磨玻璃及实变混合影,其内部常见网格影（32例,31%）和增粗血管（33例,32%）。仅有两患者见胸腔积液,无一例见肺空洞及增大淋巴结。CT评分显示纳入的病例≤5分的有84例（81%）,6~10分的有16例（15%）,11~15分的有4例（4%）,无一例≥16分。结论：COVID-19的胸部CT表现具有一定特征性,CT半定量评分对评估病情有较大价值。     

基于倾向值匹配法的城市建成环境对居民生理健康的影响

伴随着城市化和机动化进程,肥胖及其引致的慢性疾病已成为中国严峻的社会问题。本文利用2010年中国社会综合调查、空间兴趣点POI、道路网等数据,探究城市建成环境对居民生理健康状况的影响,并通过倾向值匹配法控制自选择机制的干扰。研究发现：① 高密度的土地利用对居民总体的身体健康状况具有负向影响,而功能混合、支路网通达的城市肌理、以及充足的健康设施在降低身体质量指数BMI、抑制超重和减少慢性病方面发挥着积极作用。② 各类建成环境特征对中高社会阶层的影响集中在主观的健康感知,对中低阶层人群的影响则主要作用于客观的健康指标。③ 小尺度范围内的建成环境与中低阶层群体的身体健康水平存在更为密切的关联,但这一规律在中高社会阶层并不明显。本研究证明了主动式空间干预手段在促进居民生理健康过程中的有效性,进而就建成环境的优化策略提出了初步建议。     

Urbanization under globalization: How does the Belt and Road Initiative affect urbanization levels in participating countries

China’s Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) presents the world with a new era of inclusive globalization, which will shape urbanization patterns globally. This study considered the launch of BRI as a quasi-experiment, where we evaluated the BRI’s impact on urbanization by way of difference-in-differences(DID) and propensity score matching(PSM) methods. The results showed that the BRI exerted a significantly negative effect on urbanization in its first three years. Its positive effect emerged from the ...     

小波检验方法在国内业务模式中的最新应用研究进展

本文主要介绍小波检验方法在国内区域业务模式中的最新应用研究进展,该方法被应用于模式降水预报的个例检验和统计检验,并针对两种解决二元域限制问题的技术方案进行阐述和讨论。结果表明：D8小波可以提供一种从不同降水率阈值和空间尺度对模式定量降水预报进行评估的方案,该方案首先对预报场和分析场进行阈值获得二进制误差场,再对二进制误差场进行尺度分解,从而可以评估模式在各个降水率阈值和空间尺度上的预报技巧和偏差。统计检验结果显示模式对较大尺度降水事件表现出较高的预报技巧评分,较小尺度降水事件和强降水的预报技巧评分相对较低,并且总体上呈现出预报降水事件多于观测降水事件的特征。Padding方案和Tiling方案对应的模式统计检验结果并无明显差异,由于后者不对原始降水场做任何改变,因此是一种更为稳健和可靠的方案。     

A CRPS-Based Spatial Technique for the Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts

Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known“double penalty”problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations. The fuzzy (neighborhood) method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem. The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts. We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score, i.e., the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score (SCRPS), and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts. The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the fuzzy method. A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency, which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS. The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained. The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used.     

沈阳市降水概率预报服务系统

沈阳市降水概率预报服务系统是在日本数值预报的基础上应用多种统计方法建立MOS预报方程,对其预报结果应用概率回归集成制作降水概率预报。TS评分结果表明:MOS预报的降水确率高于日本数值预报,MOS集成预报的结果在各种MOS预报结果平均偏上的水平。概率预报的Brier评分结果表明:在MOS综合基础上的概率回归(REEP)方法得出的概率预报结果较为理想。