Signed graphs for portfolio analysis in risk management

We introduce the notion of structural balance for signed graphsin the context of portfolio analysis. A portfolio of securitiescan be represented as a signed graph with the nodes denotingthe securities and the edges representing the correlation betweenthe securities. With signed graphs, the characteristics of aportfolio from a risk management perspective can be uncoveredfor analysis purposes. It is shown that a portfolio characterizedby a signed graph of positive and negative edges that is structurallybalanced is characteristically more predictable. Investors whoundertake a portfolio position with all positively correlatedsecurities do so with the intention to speculate on the upside(or downside). If the portfolio consists of negative edges andis balanced, then it is likely that the position has a hedgingdisposition within it. On the other hand, an unbalanced signedgraph is representative of an investment portfolio which ischaracteristically unpredictable.     

信用担保风险的模糊综合评审研究

信用担保机构是连接银行和企业的桥梁，对于改善企业融资环境和拓展银行业务具有重要意义，信用担保风险的评审是担保机构能否生存及有效运行的关键。信用风险的评审机制主观性强，对担保项目进行客观，公正的评审比较困难。本采用模糊数学中的综合判别方法，全面考虑风险评审所涵盖的各种风险指标及其重要度，建立了定性分析与定量分析方法相结合的信用担保风险综合评审模型，为担保机构提供了一种相对科学、客观的评审方法。     

Determination of the portfolio selection for a property-liability insurance company

This paper presents an analysis of a portfolio model which can be used to assist a property-liability insurance company in determining the optimal composition of the insurance and investment portfolios. By introducing insurer's threshold risk and relaxing some non-realistic assumptions made in traditional chance constraint insurance and investment portfolio models, we propose a method for an insurer to maximize his return threshold for a given threshold risk level. This proposed model can be used to optimize the composition of underwriting and investment portfolios regarding the insurer's threshold risk level, as well as to generate the efficient frontier by adjusting insurer's threshold risk levels. A numerical example is given based on the industry's aggregated data for a sixteen year period.     

Ultrasonic evaluation of anisotropic damage in multiaxially textile-reinforced thermoplastic composites made from hybrid yarns

The basic damage and failure models of multiaxially reinforced composites with a thermoplastic matrix are presented and verified. Within the framework of continuum damage mechanics, a phenomenological model is introduced, where the damage is defined as a change in the elasticity tensor. For damage identification, a specific ultrasonic device was developed. A combination of an immersion set-up and a contact coupling device formed a system for an efficient determination of stiffness-tensor components from convenient sets of velocity measurements. Linked to a tensile machine, it allowed us to measure the anisotropic damage of the new materials group caused by tensile loading. Russian translation published in Mekhanika Kompozitnykh Materialov, Vol. 42, No. 2, pp. 221–234, March–April, 2006.     

神经网络在大型复杂武器装备质量综合评价排序中的应用

从大型复杂武器装备系统的具体特点出发,运用基于神经网络的评价方法,构建了大型复杂武器装备质量综合评价模型。实证分析的结果表明该方法得出的结果与实际情况相符。     

基于BP神经网络的企业未来获利能力智能综合评价

分析了相关分析——多指标综合评价法在确定企业未来获利能力方面的优点和不足 ;并在其基础上提出了基于 BP神经网络的多指标综合评价法 ;仿真试验证明了基于 BP神经网络的多指标综合评价法的有效性     

Infrared thermography of masonry structures

The attention of the present paper was devoted to nondestructive evaluation of masonry structures with a Focal Plane Array infrared camera. Tests were carried out in laboratory on specimens, which simulated one- and two-layer structures, with defects of different geometry and nature and located at different depths. The defects detection was analysed through a cause/effect relationship between the characteristics of defects and hosting material and the observed defect thermal signature, or contrast, on the hosting material.     

基于离差最大化原理的灰色综合评判方法及其应用

在灰色综合隶属度评价方法基础上,按照离差最大化原理,提出了一种品种区域试验的新的确定权重的方法.应用这种方法,对2002-2003年度国家黄淮南片小麦冬水组区域试验进行了分析.结果表明,这种分析方法克服了通常专家调查法和层次分析法主观随意性强的缺点,因而其分析结果更加客观、可靠.大面积生产实践也表明该方法具有一定可行性和有效性.     

相关系数与相关性度量

研究了度量相关性的两个主要工具:线性相关系数和尾部相关系数.线性相关系数反映了变量间的线性相关性,这对于一般的椭圆型分布是合适的.但如果随机变量具有不对称的尾部变化特征时,要用尾部相关系数描述它们之间的相关性.通过相关函数C opu la,对沪深股市的尾部相关系数进行了定量分析.结果表明:沪深股市具有较强的相关性.     

Time dependent analysis of finite buffer fluid flows and risk models with a dividend barrier

Based on the matrix-analytic approach to fluid flows initiated by Ramaswami, we develop an efficient time dependent analysis for a general Markov modulated fluid flow model with a finite buffer and an arbitrary initial fluid level at time 0. We also apply this to an insurance risk model with a dividend barrier and a general Markovian arrival process of claims with possible dependencies in successive inter-claim intervals and in claim sizes. We demonstrate the implementability and accuracy of our algorithms through a set of numerical examples that could also serve as test cases for comparing other solution approaches.