从双层规划的角度看道德风险理论的一阶条件方法

本文首先对双层规划的一个特殊例子即道德风险模型中使用的一阶条件方法（FOA）做简要的梳理，然后提出一种更为一般的使FOA有效的原则与方法。新方法主要依赖于代理人对委托人设置的目标的最优反应映射是否存在不动点，这个性质不要求原问题与用一阶条件放松以后的问题之间的约束集等价，从而也不要求代理人的期望效用对行动具有全局凹性。在新方法下，可以用较为简单的方法证明FOA在以下两种情形之一有效，即如果分布函数是概率分布的凸组合或者分布函数来自某些特殊的指数族分布。     

OPTIMAL INVESTMENT IN THE PROTECTION OF A VULNERABLE BIOLOGICAL RESOURCE

It is assumed that the probability of destruction of a biological asset by natural hazards can be reduced through investment in protection. Specifically a model, in which the hazard rate depends on both the age of the asset and the accumulated invested protection capital, is assumed. The protection capital depreciates through time and its effectiveness in reducing the hazard rate is subject to diminishing returns. It is shown how the investment schedule to maximize the expected net present value of the asset can be determined using the methods of deterministic optimal control, with the survival probability regarded as a state variable. The optimal investment pattern involves “bang-bang-singular” control. A numerical scheme for determining jointly the optimal investment policy and the optimal harvest (or replacement) age is outlined and a numerical example involving forest fire protection is given.     

嵌套病例对照研究中的两步估计方法（英）

本文讨论嵌套病例对照研究中相对危险率的估计问题，引入了相对危险率的两步估计，并在一般嵌套病例对照抽样的假设下讨论了相对危险率的两步估计的相合性问题，最后给出了几个例子。     

The Use of Adiabatic Calorimetry for the Process Analysis and Safety Evaluation in Free Radical Polymerization

Adiabatic calorimetry is a technique that has been introduced as an important approach to hazard evaluation of exothermically reactive systems. In this paper the free radical polymerization of methyl methacrylate (MMA) has been studied. One of the most important aspects of MMA polymerization is its exothermicity and autoaccelerating behaviour, these characteristics can generate the occurrence of a runaway reaction.In a runaway situation the reacting system is close to adiabatic behaviour because it is unable to eliminate the heat that is being generated. An even worse situation can be reproduced in the laboratory with the Phi-Tec pseudo-adiabatic calorimeter. Process design parameters that are usually calculated from thermodynamic data or using semiempirical rules, such as adiabatic temperature rise or maximum attainable pressure, can be directly determined.The existence of the ceiling temperature has been experimentally demonstrated.This revised version was published online in November 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Hazard in reaction of titanium raw materials with sulphuric acid

The reaction of ilmenite titanium raw material with sulphuric acid was investigated in ‘hazard’ type calorimetric system. The investigations show the essential influence of initial temperature, particle size distribution and concentration of sulphuric acid on rate and heat power of reaction and determine the limits of safety of the process and also its efficiency.     

Some properties and applications of cumulative Kullback–Leibler information

The cumulative Kullback–Leibler information has been proposed recently as a suitable extension of Kullback–Leibler information to the cumulative distribution function. In this paper, we obtain various results on such a measure, with reference to its relation with other information measures and notions of reliability theory. We also provide some lower and upper bounds. A dynamic version of the cumulative Kullback–Leibler information is then proposed for past lifetimes. Furthermore, we investigate its monotonicity property, which is related to some new concepts of relative aging. Moreover, we propose an application to the failure of nanocomponents. Finally, in order to provide an application in image analysis, we introduce the empirical cumulative Kullback–Leibler information and prove an asymptotic result. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Percentile residual life orders

In this paper we study a family of stochastic orders of random variables defined via the comparison of their percentile residual life functions. Some interpretations of these stochastic orders are given, and various properties of them are derived. The relationships to other stochastic orders are also studied. Finally, some applications in reliability theory and finance are described. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Approximation of the Posterior Distribution in a Change-Point Problem

We consider a family of models that arise in connection with sharp change in hazard rate corresponding to high initial hazard rate dropping to a more stable or slowly changing rate at an unknown change-point . Although the Bayes estimates are well behaved and are asymptotically efficient, it is difficult to compute them as the posterior distributions are generally very complicated. We obtain a simple first order asymptotic approximation to the posterior distribution of . The accuracy of the approximation is judged through simulation. The approximation performs quite well. Our method is also applied to analyze a real data set.     

防范道德风险的博弈分析和契约设计

运用不完全信息动态博弈的理论，建立了一个防范道德风险的博弈模型．给出了该博弈的精炼贝叶斯纳什均衡．在此基础上给出了基于最优博弈策略的契约的具体形式。而这种基于博弈论的契约可以克服有成本的状态验证模型(CSV)及经典激励理论中承诺的可信性问题。