论美术新课程教学过程的特征

新的《全日制义务教育美术课程标准(实验稿)》,要求美术教育以发展学生的艺术素养、人文素养及促进学生的发展为主要目标。新标准要求下的美术教育与传统美术教育相比,教学过程具有学生中心性、综合性、过程性、实践性、开放性、创造性、师生互动性、美育性、兴趣性和个性性等新的特征。     

Diagnostics for dependence within time series extremes

Summary. The analysis of extreme values within a stationary time series entails various assumptions concerning its long- and short-range dependence. We present a range of new diagnostic tools for assessing whether these assumptions are appropriate and for identifying structure within extreme events. These tools are based on tail characteristics of joint survivor functions but can be implemented by using existing estimation methods for extremes of univariate independent and identically distributed variables. Our diagnostic aids are illustrated through theoretical examples, simulation studies and by application to rainfall and exchange rate data. On the basis of these diagnostics we can explain characteristics that are found in the observed extreme events of these series and also gain insight into the properties of events that are more extreme than those observed.     

Creating a reference to a complex emergency situation using time series methods: war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999

Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war.     

Household strategies in the face of resource scarcity in coastal Ghana: are they associated with development priorities?

In many developing regions, women and young girls spend several hours daily in the collection of natural resources. Still the link between these household resource strategies and stakeholder perceptions of development priorities remains unexplored. This project examines this association with survey data representative of the adult population from Ghana’s Coastal Region. Although natural resource scarcity and the sustainability of resource use represent key development challenges, there are others (e.g., energy, sanitation, employment, and educational opportunities). As such, even in the face of natural resource scarcity, individuals may place greater importance on other dimensions of development, especially if household resource strategies are perceived as relatively efficient. The analytical focus here is on water and the results suggest that gender roles shape household water collection strategies, while also shaping these strategies’ perceived opportunity costs. Specifically, Ghanian adults more often see drinking water provision as their primary development need when water sources are distant and/or when male household members collect water (particularly male heads). In the end, I argue that social science inquiry benefits by contextualizing social dynamics within environmental context, particularly within cultural settings in which human subsistence is intimately tied to the state of the natural environment.     

反垄断法中相关市场的界定标准

相关市场是竞争法中的基础性概念,对所有限制竞争行为的讨论都必须以界定相关市场为基础。相关市场又分为相关产品市场、相关地理市场和相关时间市场。结合相关案例和经济学理论对三种市场进行讨论,可以为我国反垄断立法中关于相关市场的立法和执法提供借鉴。     

评货物所有权移转之立法例——兼论各国立法协调之可能性

货物所有权移转的时间问题 ,是货物买卖中的一个最为重要也是最为敏感的问题。本文采用比较法的研究方法 ,在分析与评价关于货物所有权移转的主要立法例的基础上 ,探讨各国立法协调之可能性。本文认为 ,交付主义为最佳选择模式 ;尽管关于货物所有权移转的时间采取的立法例不尽相同 ,但这绝对不意味着没有协调的可能性。就实际情况而言 ,各国或地区的有关立法对此问题的规定正在走向趋同 ,即采用交付主义或向交付主义靠拢。各国或地区立法之所以具有协调的可能性 ,这是由于当代社会经济的国际化、一体化的特点所决定的     

软件能力成熟度模型(SW-CMM)对中国软件企业发展的影响

本文简要介绍了软件成熟度模型(SW-CMM)的基本框架及其对软件开发的影响,分析了在中国软件企业推广SW-CMM所面临的困难和应采取的措施.     

The relationship between paid work and parenthood--a comparison of structures,concepts and developments in the UK and Austria

This article investigates and compares the dominant concepts of public policy concerning the employment-parenthood interface in the UK and Austria. These two countries have been chosen because they represent very different public policy conceptions, particularly in approaching the work-family issue. In order to show the consequences of these policies the paper focuses on working time and time away from employment, when children are very young, and relates these aspects to currently introduced and changed regulatory structures, such as working time regulations and statutory parental leave. The active labour market and family policy in Austria, generally, supports the reconciliation of employment and parenthood. However, the Austrian work-family 'system' suffers from the underlying notion of the male breadwinner model in public support structures and low normative support of employed mothers. The cultural barriers for a more equal distribution of the burdens of combining employment and parenthood seem to be lower in the UK. The market as the political focus, in general, allows more equal opportunities for (qualified) women in the labour market and within families. But the highly flexible and polarised labour market, passive public policy and weak legal protection of employed parents creates a difficult relationship between paid work and family life for many parents, in particular for low-skilled, low-paid parents, above all mothers. These analyses provide the basis for conclusions for public policy aiming at the reconciliation of paid work and parenthood. Ce texte cherche à comparer les concepts dominants de la politique gouvernementale concernant l'interface travail-parent en Grande-Bretagne et en Autriche. Ces deux pays ont été choisis parce qu'ils présentent des concepts de politique gouvernementale très différents, en particulier en ce qui concerne la question de la famille et le travail. Ce texte montre les conséquences de la pratique de ces politiques sur le temps au travail rémunéréet le temps passé à l'extérieur de l'emploi ou sans emploi, et ce, dans un contexte o[ugrave] les enfants sont jeunes. Le texte fait la relation entre ces éléments et la pratique des structures de contrôle existantes et modifiées telles que les lois (ou: les règlements) sur le temps passéau travail et sur les congé parentaux. En général, le marché du travail et la politique de la famille en Autriche encourage la conciliation entre l'emploi et la responsabilité de parent. Par contre, ce système de travail- famille autrichien est un concept qui est fondé à la fois sur le modèle de l'homme comme fournisseur principal du revenu familial dans les structures de soutien public ainsi que sur normes de soutien peu élevées pour les mères employées. Les barrières culturelles face àune distribution plus égalitaire de la responsabilité travail-famille semblent être moins élevées en Grande-Bretagne. En général, le marché et la politique du marché du travail ont offerts plus d'opportunités aux femmes qualifiées. Mais la volatilité (et la polarisation) du marché du travail, la politique gouvernementale passive et la faible protection légale pour les parentstravailleurs créent tous une relation difficile pour les parents entre le travail rémunéré et la vie de famille--en particulier pour ceux qui sont moins qualifiés et mal rémunérés, dont surtout les mères de famille. Cette analyse nous guide vers la nécessité d'une politique gouvernementale qui vise la conciliation entre le travail rémunéré et la responsabilité parentale.     

女性闲暇生活状况——以福建省为例

利用福建省第二期中国妇女社会地位抽样调查资料,从福建女性拥有的闲暇时间的多寡、闲暇活动的丰富程度以及闲暇活动的内容方面来考察福建女性的闲暇生活状况.并根据数据分析女性闲暇生活各个方面的影响因素.最后根据福建省女性闲暇生活的特点及其影响因素提出进一步改善女性闲暇生活的几点建议.     

A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting

Traditionally, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been one of the most widely used linear models in time series forecasting. However, the ARIMA model cannot easily capture the nonlinear patterns. Support vector machines (SVMs), a novel neural network technique, have been successfully applied in solving nonlinear regression estimation problems. Therefore, this investigation proposes a hybrid methodology that exploits the unique strength of the ARIMA model and the SVMs model in forecasting stock prices problems. Real data sets of stock prices were used to examine the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model. The results of computational tests are very promising.