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1.
The effects of parameter uncertainty on optimal policy have been a matter of interest for academics, and even for some policymakers,
for a long time. Two lines of literature have developed analytical results on this matter. The first line uses static models
and the second dynamic models. In this dynamic line most of the results are confined to models with a single state and a single
control variable.
In this paper we want to encourage the analysis of more general dynamic cases. To do so, the results in the dynamic line are
extended from one-state and one-control finite horizon models to models with a pair of control variables. We then discuss
some of the hurdles which must be surmounted for the results to be made more general and suggests some lines for further research.
JEL classification: C61; E61 相似文献
2.
Inaki Arrazola Agn s Plainfoss Henri Prade Claudette Testemale 《Information Systems》1989,14(6):487-492
This paper presents different approaches which enable a data base management system to obtain a plausible fuzzy estimate for an attribute value of an item for which the information is not explicitly stored in the data base. This can be made either by a kind of analogical reasoning from information about particular items or by means of expert rules which specify the (fuzzy) sets of possible values of the attribute under consideration, for various classes of items. Another kind of expert rules enables the system to compute an estimate from the attribute value of another item provided that, in other respects, this latter item sufficiently resembles the item, the value of which we are interested in; then these expert rules are used either for controlling the analogical reasoning process or for enlarging the scope of application of the first kind of expert rules. The different approaches are discussed in the framework of possibility theory. 相似文献
3.
本文主要介绍了在动态汽车衡的试验过程中不确定度来源,并以动态试验为例重点介绍了计算各分量的标准不确定度、合成标准不确定度以及扩展不确定度的方法. 相似文献
4.
We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés. 相似文献
5.
6.
In various medium‐to‐large‐scale fire test equipments like the ISO room corner test (RC), and more recently, the single burning item test (SBI) the mass flow rate measurement of the combustion gases plays a key role in the determination of the heat‐release rate and smoke‐production rate. With the knowledge of the velocity profile and the temperature of the flow, the mass flow rate is obtained by measuring the velocity on the axis of the duct. This is done by means of a bi‐directional probe based on the pitot principle. However, due to the variation of the mean temperature and the temperature gradient in any cross section of the duct, introduced by ever changing combustion gas temperatures, the velocity nor the density profile are constant in time. This paper examines the resulting uncertainty on the mass flow rate. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
An Interval Fuzzy Multiobjective Watershed Management Model for the Lake Qionghai Watershed, China 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Lijing Wang Wei Meng Huaicheng Guo Zhenxing Zhang Yong Liu Yingying Fan 《Water Resources Management》2006,20(5):701-721
Integrated watershed management is required to ensure the reasonable use of resources and reconcile interactions among natural and human systems. In the present study, an interval fuzzy multiobjective programming (IFMOP) method was used to solve an integrated watershed management problem. Based on system analysis, an IFMOP model suitable for a lake watershed system {IFMOPLWS} was developed and applied to the Lake Qionghai watershed in China. Scenario analysis and an interactive approach were used in the solution process. In this manner, various system components were incorporated into one framework for holistic consideration and optimization. Integrality and uncertainty, as well as the multiobjective and dynamic characteristics of the watershed system, were well addressed. Using two scenarios, two planning schemes were generated. Agriculture, tourism, macroeconomics, cropland use, water supply, forest coverage, soil erosion, and water pollution were fully interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative for local agencies. This study showed that the IFMOPLWS is a powerful tool for integrated watershed management planning and can provide a solid base for sustainable watershed management. 相似文献
8.
钱先友 《苏州科技学院学报(工程技术版)》2002,15(1):87-89
文章介绍了不确定度的定义及其一般计算公式,通过具体实例介绍了实验后不确定度的计算和实验前的误差估计。并对有多种可能的实验方案,利用误差估计的方法,选择出最佳的实验方案,使其不确定度最小。 相似文献
9.
Sources and current methods of analysis of uncertainty from randomness, fuzziness and ignorance or incomplete knowledge in seismic hazard assessment problem are briefly discussed at beginning; understandings of the authors are then presented in the following order. All three types of uncertainty come from incomplete knowledge. Probabilistic method can be applied to all of them, objective probability for random factors and subjective probability for the other two types of uncertain factors. Discrete subjective probability mass functions for incomplete and fuzzy factors can be obtained from logic-tree and membership functions respectively. Fractile curves may be used to show the scattering of any uncertainty factor, but a unified probabilistic treatment may be applied to any combination of all three types of uncertainty. 相似文献
10.
Marcela Brugnach Andrew Tagg Florian Keil Wim J. de Lange 《Water Resources Management》2007,21(7):1075-1090
The use of computer models offers a general and flexible framework that can help to deal with some of the complexities and
difficulties associated with the development of water management plans as prescribed by the Water Framework Directive. However,
despite the advantages modelling presents, the integration of information derived from models into policy is far away from
being trivial or the norm. Part of the difficulties of this integration is rooted in the lack of confidence policy makers
have on the incorporation of modelling information into policy formulation. In this paper we examine the reasons for this
apparent lack of confidence and explore how some tools, presently in use, address this problem. We conclude that public confidence
in models is highly dependent on the way uncertainties are addressed and suggest possible directions of action to improve
the current situation. Four real case studies illustrate how computer models have been used in The Netherlands for carrying
out management plans at regional and national scale. We suggest that the solution to integrate modelling information into
policy formulation lies on both the modelling and the policy-making communities. 相似文献