Incidence and costs of bicycle-related traumatic brain injuries in the Netherlands

The main cause of death and serious disability in bicycle accidents is traumatic brain injury (TBI). The aim of this population-based study was to assess the incidence and costs of bicycle-related TBI across various age groups, and in comparison to all bicycle-related injuries, to identify main risk groups for the development of preventive strategies.Data from the National Injury Surveillance System and National Medical Registration were used for all patients with bicycle-related injuries and TBI who visited a Dutch emergency department (ED) between 1998 and 2012. Demographics and national, weighted estimates of injury mechanism, injury severity and costs were analysed per age group. Direct healthcare costs and indirect costs were determined using the incidence-based Dutch Burden of Injury Model.Between 1998 and 2012, the incidence of ED treatments due to bicycle-related TBI strongly increased with 54%, to 43 per 100,000 persons in 2012. However, the incidence of all bicycle-related injuries remained stable, from 444 in 1998 to 456/100,000 in 2012. Incidence of hospital admission increased in both TBI (92%) and all injuries from cycling (71%). Highest increase in incidence of both ED treatments and hospital admissions was seen in adults aged 55+. The injury rate of TBI per kilometre travelled increased (44%) except in children, but decreased (−4%) for all injuries, showing a strong decrease in children (−36%) but an increase in men aged 25+, and women aged 15+. Total costs of bicycle-related TBI were €74.5 million annually. Although bicycle-related TBI accounted for 9% of the incidence of all ED treatments due to cycling, it accounted for 18% of the total costs due to all bicycle-related injuries (€410.7 million). Children and adolescents (aged 0–24) had highest incidence of ED treatments due to bicycle-related injuries. Men in the working population (aged 15–64) had highest indirect costs following injuries from cycling, including TBI. Older cyclists (aged 55+) were identified as main risk group for TBI, as they had highest ED attendance, injury rate, injury severity, admission to hospital or intensive care unit, and costs.Incidence of ED treatments due to cycling are high and often involve TBI, imposing a high burden on individuals and society. Older cyclists aged 55+ were identified as main risk group for TBI to be targeted in preventive strategies, due to their high risk for (serious) injuries and ever-increasing share of ED visits and hospital admissions.     

A terrain risk assessment method for military surveillance applications for mobile assets

This study proposes an analytical and flexible terrain risk assessment method for military surveillance applications for mobile assets. Considering the risk as the degree of possibility of insurgent presence, the assessment method offers an efficient evaluation of risk in the surrounding terrain for military combat operating posts or observation posts. The method is designed for unmanned aerial vehicles as the surveillance assets of choice to improve the effectiveness of their use. Starting with the area map and geographical data, the target terrain is first digitized for space representation. Then the data of nine geographical parameters are used to formulate five contributing risk factors. These factors are incorporated in an analytical framework to generate a composite map with risk scores that reveal the potential high-risk spots in the terrain. The proposed method is also applied to a real-life case study of COP Kahler in Afghanistan, which was a target for insurgent attacks in 2008. The results confirm that when evaluated with the developed method, the region that the insurgents used to approach COP Kahler has high concentration of high-risk cells.     

管道风险管理方法研究

按照管道风险管理的流程分别对管道风险评价、风险控制和决策支持、效能测试和响应进行了论述。针对目前国内管道行业的情况，提出了进行管道风险评价的有效方法及维护措施。着重介绍了国外管道风险可接受标准的情况，作为国内制定管道风险评价标准的参考。     

A Bayesian approach to the multivariate Behrens-Fisher problem under the assumption of proportional covariance matrices

Summary Two independent random samples of sizesN ₁ andN ₂ from multivariate normal populationsN _p (θ₁,∑₁) andN _p (θ₂,∑₂) are considered. Under the null hypothesisH ₀: θ₁=θ₂, a single θ is generated from aN _p(μ, Σ) prior distribution, while underH ₁: θ₁≠θ₂ two means are generated from the exchangeable priorN _p(μ,σ). In both cases Σ will be assumed to have a vague prior distribution. For a simple covariance structure, the Bayes factorB and minimum Bayes factor in favour of the null hypotheses is derived. The Bayes risk for each hypothesis is derived and a strategy is discussed for using the Bayes factor and Bayes risks to test the hypothesis.     

Hydrocarbon exploration risk evaluation through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses techniques

The evaluation of the exploration risk in the oil industry is a fundamental component of the decision process related to the exploratory phase. In this paper the two basic components of the exploratory risk: trap geometry and trapped hydrocarbon quantities (fluid), are compounded in a single coherent uncertainty and sensitivity approach. The results clarify that the model geometry influences each Petroleum System Modeling step and that the geometric uncertainty is correlated with the fluid uncertainty. The geometric uncertainty evaluation makes use of geostatistical techniques that produce a number of possible realizations of the trap geometry, all compatible with available data. The evaluation of the fluid uncertainty, through a Monte Carlo methodology, allows us to compute the possible quantities of oil and gas, generated in a basin and migrated from the hydrocarbon source location to each single trap. The final result is the probability distribution of oil and gas for each trap in the basin, together with other useful indicators like: the hydrocarbon filling probability map, the closure probability map, the drainage area probability map, the spilling paths probabilities, the trap-filling scenarios.     

Economic Model to Optimize Underground Utility Protection

The need for better protecting our vital infrastructure from being damaged or destroyed has received increased attention since the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. The tragedy of having thousands of innocent people die before the eyes of an entire nation awakened people to the reality of “managed” attacks of unthinkable magnitudes. However, tragedies of a smaller scale are a daily occurrence but accepted as “collateral damage” of work in an unsafe environment. This paper presents a cost-benefit analysis to address the question of how much money should be spent in protecting underground utilities from damage. During the study of an actual incident it was found that the total costs of such accidents are vastly underreported because only costs for emergency responses and repair are tallied up. This paper makes the case that a comprehensive approach for assessing the total economic impact of such incidents on the public, business, and government is the critical stepping stone to a mathematical optimization of expenditure for damage prevention. In addition, the reader will quickly realize that the use of the presented optimization model provides theoretical underpinning for the engineering profession in its effort to better protect our critical infrastructure from terrorist attacks.     

Life quality index for the estimation of societal willingness-to-pay for safety

The engineering and management of human safety is an important societal objective that includes extensive efforts by governments, both legislative and administrative, to enhance the health and safety of the public. Although the achievement of safety goals depend primarily on individuals and organizations responsible for safety, much support is drawn from expertise in diverse scientific and engineering disciplines. The activities range from structural safety (dams, tunnels, bridges to tall buildings) to safe operation of hazardous industrial installations (energy generation facilities, LNG terminals, petrochemical plants) to transportation systems (airline, rail, car safety) to technologies designed to minimize adverse impacts on the environment. All these activities are crucially concerned with risk: with the likelihood and the probable effects of various measures on life and health. We have developed a unified rationale and a clear basis for effective strategic management of risk across diverse sectors. Safety is an important objective in society but it is not the only one. The allocation of society's resources devoted to safety must be continually appraised in light of competing needs, because there is a limit on the resources that can be expended to extend life. The paper presents the Life Quality Index (LQI) as a tool for the assessment of risk reduction initiatives that would support the public interest and enhance safety and quality of life. The paper provides an intuitive reformulation of the LQI as equivalent to a valid utility function that is consistent with the principles of rational decision analysis. The LQI is further refined to consider the issues of discounting of life years, competing background risks, and population age and mortality distribution. The LQI is applied to quantify the societal willingness-to-pay, which is an acceptable level of public expenditure in exchange for a reduction in the risk of death that results in improved life-quality.     

Risk Allocation and Risk Handling of Highway Projects in Taiwan

Risks always exist in construction projects and often cause schedule delay or cost overrun. Risk management is a key issue in project management. The first step of risk management is risk identification. It includes the recognition of potential risk event conditions in the project and the clarification of risk responsibilities. We conducted multiple-case studies using a systematic analytical procedure to identify risks in highway projects in Taiwan, to recognize risk allocation by contract clauses, and to analyze the influence of risk allocation on the contractor’s risk handling strategies. The results show that the owner allocates risks by stipulating specific contract clauses into five kinds of risk allocation conditions. If a risk is more controllable by the contractor, the owner has a greater tendency to allocate the risk to the contractor. Risk allocation determines which kinds of risks the contractor would take and influences the contractor’s risk handling decisions. The analysis furthermore indicates that, if the probability of a certain risk event condition is uncontrollable, then with the increasing possibility of taking the risk, the contractor’s tendency of risk handling changes from actively transferring the risk to passively retaining the risk. In contrast, if a risk is controllable and certainly allocated to the contractor, the contractor tends to take the initiative to reduce the impact caused by the risk event rather than retain the risk.     

HSE管理体系认证审核的要点

企业所建立的HSE管理体系已运行多年,大多满足认证的条件,HSE体系认证是体系运行的重要环节,也是体系运行绩效的肯定。审核时要面对大量的体系文件和作业记录,因此把握住审核要点会起到事半功倍的效果。     

Determination of the total concentration and speciation of Al(III) in tea infusions

The aluminium species in different tea infusions were investigated, by determining their stability constants and concentration. This was done for some particular samples using a simple experimental method based on the sorption of aluminium on the strongly sorbing resin Chelex 100, by a batch procedure. From the thermodynamic information obtained it is possible to calculate the concentration of the different species, and in particular that of the free metal ion, which is very important for evaluating the adsorption of aluminium on biological membranes. It was found that aluminium in the tea infusions here considered is present at high total concentration, approximately 0.1 mM, but mainly linked to strong complexes, for instance with side reaction coefficient higher than 10(5.11) at pH 3.95 in one case (tea 1). This could be the reason for the low toxicity of aluminium in tea. These strong complexes were not dissociated even in the presence of Chelex 100. In this case only a limiting value of the reaction coefficient could be evaluated. The presence of the very strong complexes was found in all the tea sample here considered. In two of the considered samples (one black and one green tea) a part of Al(III) was linked to less strong complexes, for example with a reaction coefficient 10(4.14) (tea 2, pH 4.20). The presence in the considered tea infusions of other substances able to complex aluminium was also detected, by the well known ligand titration procedure, at concentration ranging from 0.65 to 3.37 mM in three tea infusions, and at somewhat higher concentration in the case of the ready drink, which was also considered for comparison.