Incomplete Credit Markets and Commodity Marketing Behaviour

We use a simple theoretical model of seasonal market participation in the presence of liquidity constraints and transaction costs to explain the ‘sell low, buy high’ puzzle in which some households do not take advantage of inter‐temporal price arbitrage through storage and sell output postharvest at prices lower than observed prices for purchases in the subsequent lean season. We test our model with data from western Kenya using maximum likelihood estimation of a multivariate sample selection model of market participation. Access to off‐farm income and credit indeed seem to influence crop sales and purchase behaviours in a manner consistent with the hypothesised patterns.     

The potential of participatory hybrid breeding

This article explores the potential of involving smallholder farmers in hybrid development for their low-external input farming systems. We have developed a conceptual model of the procedures, based on five assumptions: (a) the hybrids are bred for adaptation to local needs and preferences; (b) the dependence on and need for genetic diversity is taken into account; (c) breeders collaborate closely with farmers also in the initial stages of the breeding programme, that is, in establishing the breeding goals by identifying the desired traits and preferred local populations as (one of the) crossing parents; (d) hybrid seed production can be integrated into the farmers’ local seed system; and (e) farmers and breeders can agree on intellectual property rights, access and benefit sharing in a fair and transparent way. We illustrate the procedural consequences of these assumptions with reference to the case of a participatory maize breeding programme in southwest China, from 2000 to 2012, that included both open-pollinated and hybrid maize improvement. We show how farmers’ early involvement in hybrid development during the pre-breeding stage, including broadening the base populations with farmer-maintained local landraces, can support co-evolution of the genetic resources in farmers’ fields.     

Impacts of Market Reform on Spatial Volatility of Maize Prices in Tanzania

Maize is one of the major staples and cash crops for many Tanzanians. Excessive volatility of maize prices destabilises farm income in maize‐growing regions and is likely to jeopardise nutrition and investment in many poor rural communities. This study investigates whether market reform policies in Tanzania have increased the volatility of maize prices, and identifies regional characteristics that can be attributed to the spatial price volatility. To achieve the objectives, an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (ARCH‐M) model is developed and estimated in this study. Results show that the reforms have increased farm‐gate prices and overall price volatility. Maize prices are lower in surplus and less developed regions than those in deficit and developed regions. Results also show that the developed and maize‐deficit regions, and regions bordering other countries have experienced less volatile prices than less developed, maize‐surplus and non‐bordering regions. Our findings indicate that investments in communication and transportation infrastructures from government and donor countries are likely to increase inter‐regional and international trade, thereby reducing the spatial price volatility in Tanzanian maize prices in the long run.     

The impact of conservation tillage on maize yield and input demand: the case of smallholder farmers in north‐west Ethiopia

This study analyses the economics of conservation tillage (CT) with respect to its effect on maize yield and chemical fertiliser, herbicide, and female and male labour demand. We estimate production and input demand functions using seemingly unrelated regressions on plot‐level cross‐sectional farm household data collected in the north‐west of Ethiopia. A two‐step control function is applied to address potential endogeneity bias due to the inclusion of the CT adoption decision as an explanatory variable. Our results show that CT increases maize yield and chemical fertiliser demand. Additionally, the results show that the adoption of CT reduces female and male labour required for crop production. However, this is achieved through the increased use of herbicides, which might have an undesirable health and environmental effects.     

Measuring Farm and Market Level Economic Impacts of Improved Maize Production Technologies in Ethiopia: Evidence from Panel Data

While it is often recognised that agricultural technology adoption decisions are intertwined and best characterised by multivariate models, typical approaches to examining adoption and impacts of agricultural technology have focused on single technology adoption choice and ignored interdependence among technologies. We examine farm‐ and market‐level impacts of multiple technology adoption choices using comprehensive household survey data collected in 2010/11 and 2012/13 in Ethiopia. Economic surplus analysis combined with panel data switching endogenous regression models are used to compute the supply shift parameter (K‐shift parameter), while at the same time controlling for the endogeneity inherent in agricultural technology adoption among farmers. We find that our improved technology set choices have significant impacts on farm‐level maize yield and maize production costs, where the greatest effect appears to be generated when various technologies are combined. The change in maize yield and production costs results in an average 26.4% cost reduction per kilogram of maize output (the K‐shift parameter). This increases the producer and consumer surpluses by US$ 140 and US$ 105 million per annum, respectively. These changes in economic surplus help to reduce the number of poor people by an estimated 788 thousand per year. We conclude that deliberate extension efforts and other policies that encourage integration of technologies are important for maize technologies to yield their full potential at both farm and market levels.     

Estimating the Enduring Effects of Fertiliser Subsidies on Commercial Fertiliser Demand and Maize Production: Panel Data Evidence from Malawi

Most studies of input subsidy programmes confine their analyses to measuring programme effects over a one‐year period. This article estimates the potential longer‐run or enduring effects of fertiliser subsidy programmes on smallholder farm households' demand for commercial fertiliser and maize production over time. We use four waves of panel data on 462 farm households in Malawi for whom fertiliser use can be tracked for eight consecutive seasons between 2003/2004 and 2010/2011. Panel estimation methods are used to control for potential endogeneity of subsidised fertiliser acquisition. Results indicate that farmers acquiring subsidised fertiliser in three consecutive prior years are found to purchase slightly more commercial fertiliser in the next year. This suggests a small amount of crowding in of commercial fertiliser from the receipt of subsidised fertiliser in prior years. In addition, acquiring subsidised fertiliser in a given year has a modest positive impact on increasing maize output in that same year. However, acquiring subsidised fertiliser in multiple prior years generates no statistically significant effect on maize output in the current year. These findings indicate that potential enduring effects of the Malawi fertiliser subsidy programme on maize production are limited. Additional interventions that increase soil fertility can make using inorganic fertiliser more profitable and sustainable for smallholders in sub‐Saharan Africa and thereby increase the cost‐effectiveness of input subsidy programmes.     

The Costs of Coexistence Measures for Genetically Modified Maize in Germany

We estimate the perceived costs of legal requirements (‘coexistence measures’) for growing genetically modified (GM) Bt maize in Germany using a choice experiment. The costs of the evaluated ex‐ante and ex‐post coexistence measures range from zero to more than €300 per measure and most are greater than the extra revenue the farmers in our survey expect from growing Bt maize or than estimates in the literature. The cost estimates for temporal separation, the highest in our evaluation, imply that the exclusion of this measure in Germany is justified. The costliest measures of the ones that are currently applied in Germany are joint and strict liability for all damages. Our results further show that neighbours do not cause a problem and opportunities for reducing costs through agreements with them exist. Finally, we find that farmers’ attitudes towards GM crops affect the probability of adoption of Bt maize. Our results imply that strict liability will deter the cultivation of Bt maize in Germany unless liability issues can be addressed through other means, for example, through neighbours agreements.     

河北省夏玉米需水量变化特征及未来可能趋势

基于1963—2015年近50年间河北省夏玉米主产区8个气象站点气象资料,采用联合国粮食与农业组织(FAO)推荐的Penman-Monteith模型和作物系数法计算夏玉米需水量,再结合《IPCC排放情景特别报告》中的两种排放情景RCP2.6(低排放情景)和RCP8.5(持续排放情景)预估的未来气候情景,探讨气候变化下未来河北省夏玉米需水量的时空演变规律。结果表明:1963—2015年河北省夏玉米需水量呈现下降趋势,在空间上大致以黄骅为高值中心,由东北向西南逐渐递减,并在邢台形成低值中心的分布特征;从未来气候变化情景来看,相对于基准时段(2015年),RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景下,在2020年、2030年、2050年、2070年未来4个典型年份夏玉米的需水量均表现出增加的特征。     

A study of farmer’s decision and incentive scheme to reduce highland maize farming in Thailand

During the past 15 years, there has been a considerable increase in highland maize farming in Nan, a province in northern Thailand. The increase in farming area causes an excessive forest encroachment and environmental problems, e.g. soil degradation, landslide, and pesticide contamination. This research explores the mechanism and factors which drive a sustainable transformation from highland maize farming to reforestation. We survey 107 farmers in Nammeed and Sopsai watersheds in where the reverses of growing trend of deforestation in Thailand have been observed. Comparative statistical analysis and regression are used to analyse factors affecting farmer’s decisions and compare differences between the two sites. We find that the fundamental mechanism driving a sustainable transformation from highland maize farming to reforestation comprises 3 pillars. These are 1) realization of adequate economic, health or environmental benefits derived from the alternatives; 2) a sense of belonging and attachment towards the forest and 3) effective enforcements of communal rules and regulations. While natural transformation in Nammeed area highlights the roles of flatland as key driver of the change, subsidy schemes can supplement the transformation during transitional period as seen in Sopsai area.     

Demand for maize hybrids and hybrid change on smallholder farms in Kenya

Kenya is a globally recognized maize “success story.” As the overall percentage of maize farmers growing hybrids tops 80% and the seed industry matures, the slow pace of hybrid replacement on farms, and the continued dominance of the seed industry by Kenya Seed Company, may dampen productivity. Our econometric analysis identifies the factors that explain farmer demand for hybrid seed, and the age of hybrids they grow, considering hybrid seed ownership. Male‐headed households with more education, more assets, and more land plant more hybrid seed. Scale of seed demand per farm is differentiated by agroecology. We find a strong farmer response to the seed‐to‐grain price ratio, which we interpret as evidence of a commercial orientation even on household farms. However, despite the dramatic increase in the number of hybrids sold and the breadth of seed suppliers as seed markets liberalize, an older hybrid still dominates national demand.