Stochastic free vibration analyses of composite shallow doubly curved shells – A Kriging model approach

This paper presents the Kriging model approach for stochastic free vibration analysis of composite shallow doubly curved shells. The finite element formulation is carried out considering rotary inertia and transverse shear deformation based on Mindlin’s theory. The stochastic natural frequencies are expressed in terms of Kriging surrogate models. The influence of random variation of different input parameters on the output natural frequencies is addressed. The sampling size and computational cost is reduced by employing the present method compared to direct Monte Carlo simulation. The convergence studies and error analysis are carried out to ensure the accuracy of present approach. The stochastic mode shapes and frequency response function are also depicted for a typical laminate configuration. Statistical analysis is presented to illustrate the results using Kriging model and its performance.     

A GIS plug-in for Bayesian belief networks: Towards a transparent software framework to assess and visualise uncertainties in ecosystem service mapping

The complexity and spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem processes driving ecosystem service delivery require spatially explicit models that take into account the different parameters affecting those processes. Current attempts to model ecosystem service delivery on a broad, regional scale often depend on indicator-based approaches that are generally not able to fully capture the complexity of ecosystem processes. Moreover, they do not allow quantification of uncertainty on their predictions. In this paper, we discuss a QGIS plug-in which promotes the use of Bayesian belief networks for regional modelling and mapping of ecosystem service delivery and associated uncertainties. Different types of specific Bayesian belief network output maps, delivered by the plug-in, are discussed and their decision support capacities are evaluated. This plug-in, used in combination with firmly developed Bayesian belief networks, has the potential to add value to current spatial ecosystem service accounting methods. The plug-in can also be used in other research domains dealing with spatial data and uncertainty.     

Prediction of sediment,particulate nutrient and dissolved nutrient concentrations in a dry tropical river to provide input to a mechanistic coastal water quality model

A Generalised Additive Modelling (GAM) approach is applied to prediction of both particulate and dissolved nutrient concentrations in a wet-tropical river (the Fitzroy River, Queensland, Australia). In addition to covariant terms considered in previous work (i.e. flow, discounted flow and a rising-falling limb term), we considered several new potential covariates: meteorological and hydrological variables that are routinely monitored, available in near-real time, and were considered to have potential predictive power. Of the additional terms considered, only flows from three tributaries of the Fitzroy River (namely, the Nogoa, Comet and Isaac Rivers) were found to significantly improve the model. Inclusion of one or more of these additional flow terms greatly improved results for dissolved nitrogen and dissolved phosphorus concentrations, which were not otherwise amenable to prediction. In particular, the Nogoa sub-catchment, dominated by pasture for cattle, was found to be important in determining dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations reaching the river mouth. This insight may direct further research, including future refinement of processed-based catchment models. The GAMs described here are used to provide near real-time river boundary conditions for a complex coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model of the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon, and can be coupled with a forecasting hydrological model to allow integrated forecasting simulations of the catchment to coast system.     

The control of sea lice in Atlantic salmon by selective breeding

Sea lice threaten the welfare of farmed Atlantic salmon and the sustainability of fish farming across the world. Chemical treatments are the major method of control but drug resistance means that alternatives are urgently needed. Selective breeding can be a cheap and effective alternative. Here, we combine experimental trials and diagnostics to provide a practical protocol for quantifying resistance to sea lice. We then combined quantitative genetics with epidemiological modelling to make the first prediction of the response to selection, quantified in terms of reduced need for chemical treatments. We infected over 1400 young fish with Lepeophtheirus salmonis, the most important species in the Northern Hemisphere. Mechanisms of resistance were expressed early in infection. Consequently, the number of lice per fish and the ranking of families were very similar at 7 and 17 days post infection, providing a stable window for assessing susceptibility to infection. The heritability of lice numbers within this time window was moderately high at 0.3, confirming that selective breeding is viable. We combined an epidemiological model of sea lice infection and control on a salmon farm with genetic variation in susceptibility among individuals. We simulated 10 generations of selective breeding and examined the frequency of treatments needed to control infection. Our model predicted that substantially fewer chemical treatments are needed to control lice outbreaks in selected populations and chemical treatment could be unnecessary after 10 generations of selection. Selective breeding for sea lice resistance should reduce the impact of sea lice on fish health and thus substantially improve the sustainability of Atlantic salmon production.     

Abrasive waterjet micro-machining of channels in metals: Comparison between machining in air and submerged in water

Abrasive water jet technology can be used for micro-milling using recently developed miniaturized nozzles. Abrasive water jet (AWJ) machining is often used with both the nozzle tip and workpiece submerged in water to reduce noise and contain debris. This paper compares the performance of submerged and unsubmerged abrasive water jet micro-milling of channels in 316L stainless steel and 6061-T6 aluminum at various nozzle angles and standoff distances. The effect of submergence on the diameter and effective footprint of AWJ erosion footprints was measured and compared. It was found that the centerline erosion rate decreased with channel depth due to the spreading of the jet as the effective standoff distance increased, and because of the growing effect of stagnation as the channel became deeper. The erosive jet spread over a larger effective footprint in air than in water, since particles on the jet periphery were slowed much more quickly in water due to increased drag. As a result, the width of a channel machined in air was wider than that in water. Moreover, it was observed that the instantaneous erosion rate decreased with channel depth, and that this decrease was a function only of the channel cross-sectional geometry, being independent of the type of metal, the jet angle, the standoff distance, and regardless of whether the jet was submerged or in air, in either the forward or backward directions. It is shown that submerged AWJM results in narrower features than those produced while machining in air, without a decrease in centerline etch rate.     

Modelling dislocation assisted tempering during rolling contact fatigue in bearing steels

Rolling contact fatigue in bearing steels is manifested by dark-etching regions, which are attributed to deformation induced tempering. In order to quantitatively explain this phenomenon, a model is suggested for martensite tempering assisted by dislocation glide during rolling contact fatigue. In the model, dislocations transport carbon from the matrix to carbide particles, provided that the carbon is located at a certain distance range from the dislocation contributing to the tempering process. By calculating the amount of carbon in the matrix, the kinetics of carbide thickening and hardness reduction are computed. It is found that the dark-etching region kinetics can be controlled by both bearing operation conditions (temperature and deformation rate) and microstructure (type, size, and volume fraction of carbides). The model is validated against tested bearings, and its limitations are discussed.     

Copper–4,4′-dipyridyl coordination compound as solid reagent for spectrophotometric determination of reducing sugar employing a multicommutation approach

In this work a multicommuted flow system employing copper–4,4′- dipyridyl coordination compound as the solid-phase reagent for the spectrophotometric determination of reducing sugar was developed. The coordination compound was synthesized through a reaction of the 4,4′-dipyridyl and copper (II) nitrate, under hydrothermal conditions. The complex was characterized by infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), power X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectrometer (EDS) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). Based on the characterization, a multicommuted spectrophotometric procedure for the determination of reducing sugar using copper (II) complex as solid reagent is proposed. The proposed method was based on the redox reaction between a monosaccharide, such as fructose and glucose (reducing sugar) and Cu(II). This reaction, mediated in an alkaline medium, produces a yellow compound that can be determined by absorption electronic spectroscopy (λ_ABS = 420 nm). Under optimum experimental conditions, a linear response ranging from 1.0 to 20.0 g L⁻¹ (R = 0.9978 and n = 5), a detection (3σ criterion) and quantification (10σ criterion) limit estimated at 0.23 and 0.75 g L⁻¹, respectively, a standard deviation relative of 4.7% (n = 7), for a reference solution of 10.0 g L⁻¹ reducing sugar, and a sampling rate of 75 determinations per hour were achieved. The proposed system was applied to the determination of reducing sugars in coconut water and juices. The analysis of ten samples and the application of the t-test to the results found, and those obtained using reference procedures (AOAC), provided no significant differences at a 95% confidence level. This system enabled the analysis of reducing sugar with ease and simplicity, providing a significant economy of the solid reagent (600 μg per determination) and reducing effluent generation.     

Impact sensitivities of energetic materials: Exploring the limitations of a model based only on structural formulas

Using a comprehensive set of drop weight impact test data (h₅₀) newly compiled from literature for 308 materials, a recent approach to predict impact sensitivities of nitro compounds is generalized to most explosive substances of interest. Compared to previous ones, this procedure is more thoroughly validated and exhibits a good predictive value. Furthermore, it yields new insight into the physical mechanisms involved, explaining for instance the unexpected desensitization of some oxygen-deficient triazoles upon nitration.     

Modelling of black carbon statistical distribution and return periods of extreme concentrations

Eight datasets of 1-h black carbon (BC) concentrations measured in Warsaw agglomeration (Poland), at urban background and sub-urban sites, and in Racibórz, a small town in Upper Silesia district (regional background site) were analyzed to evaluate BC levels, daily profiles and statistical distributions of concentrations in Central-Eastern European region. The observed mean levels ranged from 1483 ng m⁻³ in suburban site during summer to 3358 ng m⁻³ in regional background site in winter. Observed diurnal patterns were bimodal in the locations dominated by traffic emissions, but unimodal, with elevated evening peak in individually heated residential area. Three theoretical frequency distributions were applied to fit analyzed datasets separately. The lognormal distribution was the most appropriate to represent the middle-range values, while the high concentrations were satisfactorily predicted by the type I two-parameter exponential distribution which was used to estimate the return periods of extreme concentrations for winter months.