Tinbergen in De Economist

Jan Tinbergen's scientific writings cover six main areas of research. His articles in De Economist represent these areas; in some cases the contributions to De Economist were of a pioneering nature (business cycles, economic models, economic integration); in others De Economist was the first or even single outlet for Tinbergen's work. This article provides an overview of these contributions. The wide scope of Tinbergen's areas of research goes together with a unity in approach, the characteristics of which are: policy relevance, quantification and measurement, balance in analysis and presentation, and learning from experience. Tinbergen's articles in De Economist bear witness to this approach which at the time also met with scepticism and resistance as this overview shows. According to Houthakker, Tinbergen's main contribution may be that, amidst the pleas of interest groups and the slogans of the laity, an attempt is made that the voice of the professional economic researcher be heard. Tinbergen's work still sets an agenda for both economic research and policy making.     

Regional Unemployment in Transitional China: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

The purpose of this paper is to explain the pattern of regional unemployment in transitional China. A model is developed to explore how urban unemployment in the provinces is influenced by peasants' wages, formal sector wages, and the size of the formal sector. Evidence from panel data suggests that a significant indicator of high unemployment rates is greater Urban–Rural Income Inequality within the province. The hypothesis is that the urban–rural income gap produces migration, and more rural migrants substitute for urban workers, causing further urban unemployment.Since the economic reforms began in 1978, the non-state owned enterprises have been carrying an increasing weight in the economy, and they have contributed significantly to the rapid economic growth of China. Empirical evidence shows that economic reforms have reduced unemployment. The provinces that are still heavily dependent on the state sector are therefore more likely to experience higher unemployment.     

中国城市中的三种贫困类型

我们课题组在 1 999年进行了一次覆盖六省市的住户调查。本文利用这次调查数据对中国城市贫困的性质和特点进行了考察。通过综合考虑收入标准和消费标准 ,我们把中国城镇贫困分为三种类型 ,即持久性贫困、暂时性性贫困和选择性贫困。在贫困人口中 ,有一大部分是属于选择性贫困 ,即他们的收入高于贫困线而消费低于贫困线。我们对贫困户的消费函数进行了估计 ,其结果显示以下几个因素对贫困状况产生重要的影响 :修匀收入的效应 ;人们防备外部环境不确定性的心理 ;人们为将来投资而进行储蓄的行为 ;家庭对子女教育和医疗服务的特别需要。我们还对三种贫困类型进行了比较分析 ,从中发现预测的金融资产和预测的收入 ,以及教育和医疗的特殊需要都对不同类型的贫困户的消费行为起到重要的影响作用     

利率风险管理的重要免疫工具:持续期模型

利率市场化进程的加快凸现利率风险管理的重要性和迫切性.作为一种利率风险管理的重要免疫工具,持续期配比策略在近些年来有了较大发展.本文在深入探讨Macaulay持续期的三种重要含义的基础上,详细地分析和比较了近期提出的几种主要持续期即:方向持续期、 部分持续期和近似持续期,最后简单讨论了将这些持续期模型及其免疫策略用于中国市场应注意的问题.     

Does accessibility to local public employment agencies matter? Answers from a French quasi-experiment

We question whether accessibility to local public employment agencies impacts exits from unemployment. We deal with the potential endogeneity of the residential location of jobseekers by using the unanticipated creation of a new agency in the French region of Lyon as a quasi-natural experiment. We use exhaustive and geo-located individual data on jobseekers and local public employment agencies. Contrary to past evidence based on aggregated data, we find no evidence that jobseekers with improved accessibility to the local public employment services experience an improvement of their probability of exiting unemployment. We however find evidence of transitory organizational effects. These findings strongly question the costly strategy of a fine distribution of local public employment agencies across the territory while suggesting that institutional issues are key.     

基于久期缺口的商业银行利率风险免疫策略及实证分析

随着利率市场化的深入，利率风险越来越成为影响商业银行绩效的主要风险，因此，如何对商业银行利率风险进行计量及管理，日益成为国内外学术界高度关注的重要课题。通过建立久期缺口模型，提出了商业银行利率风险免疫策略，并进行实证分析表明：通过确立目标项目，调整资产与负债结构，可以较好地实现商业银行的利率风险免疫。     

论各类失业的结构性质--对西方失业理论的另一种思考

从理论上说失业有很多类型。产业结构调整和升级背景下的失业原因也是多方面的。本文通过对各种失业理论的分析比较 ,认为通常所说的“结构性失业”不足以涵盖产业结构变化中的失业现象 ,现实情况下 ,“混合失业”、“自然失业”、“隐性失业”等都带有结构性质 ,都与产业结构的变化有密切的联系     

Default- and call-adjusted duration for corporate bonds

Call and default can potentially alter the timing and amounts of promised cashflows for callable, corporate bonds. While prior research has indicated the theoretical importance of adjusting Macaulay duration for the impacts of default and call, the question of their relative impact remains a matter of debate [The High Yield Debt Market, Dow Jones Irwin, New York, 1990, p. 18; J. Finan. 53 (1998) 2225]. We develop a theoretical analysis incorporating both default and call effects on duration and test its implications employing a previously unexplored data base of Canadian, investment grade, corporate bond indices containing an unusual provision making it possible to identify callable and noncallable indices.     

我国失业现象的原因分析及对策建议

近年来,我国失业率持续攀升已是不争的事实。为了对这一问题进行深入研究,文章从现存失业问题分析入手,探讨产生失业问题的根源,即经济体制转轨、经济结构调整和农村剩余劳动力转移等。根据这些原因,文章从失业预防和失业补救两方面提出了解决失业问题的建议。