基于奇异谱分析的南方涛动指数短期气候预测试验

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) time series is analyzed by means of the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method with 60-month window length. Two major oscillatory pairs are found in the series whose pe riods are quasi-four and quasi-two years respectively. The auto-regressive model, which is developed on the basis of the Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analy sis, is fitted to each of the 9 leading components including the oscillatory pairs. The prediction of SOI with the 36-month lead is obtained from the reconstruction of these extrapolated series. Correlation coefficient between predicted series and 5 months running mean of observed series is up to 0.8. The model can successfully predict the peak and duration of the strong ENSO event from 1997 to 1998. It＇s also shown that the proper choice of reconstructed components is the key to improve the model prediction.     

重力仪高频信息和地脉动的观测研究

本文介绍了应用电磁反馈零位检测技术改装的重力仪进行高频信息的观测。阐述重力仪高频信息频谱分布特征、数据采集、数字计算和随机信息的处理方法。利用高频信息可以很好地观测和研究地脉动,给出北京香山地震台利用重力仪高频信息观测所得的地脉动功率谱。分析了地脉动特征及其与台风过程的关系;讨论了某些大地震前所出现的地脉动异常现象。得出北京地区正常地脉动频率分布范围为0.13-0.32Hz,优势频率为0.2Hz,相应的卓越周期为5s的脉动频率异常,也可能在地脉动的正常频率处（0.2Hz左右）,出现幅度很大的脉动幅度异常,后者又往往与台风引起的幅度异常相混淆。     

磁铁石英岩型铁矿岩芯光谱编录研究

 对河北省昌黎县闫庄铁矿床的磁铁石英岩型铁矿石261件样品进行了光谱反射率测量，并与其铁含量进行了相关关系研究，目 的是对钻孔岩芯编录的新方法即高光谱岩芯编录在此类矿床中的可行性进行分析。研究结果表明，铁矿石反射率较低，一般为5%~20% ，铁离子的吸收峰主要表现在400~1 100 nm范围内，铁矿石中铁含量与850~900 nm的反射率均值呈现显著指数负相关关系，为高光谱 岩芯编录在此类矿床中的可行性提供了理论依据和技术途径。     

Statistics of wave forces on large horizontal cylinders

To the first order in a Stokes expansion, the pressure force exerted by a sea state on a large horizontal cylinder represents a stationary random Gaussian process. A relationship is obtained between the spectrum of this process and the wave spectrum. As a consequence, the basic statistical properties of the height and period of the individual waves of the force-process are also obtained. It is proven that these statistical properties agree very well with the data from a small scale field experiment.     

Wave interaction with a submarine pipeline in clayey soil due to random waves

The wave pressure and uplift force due to random waves on a submarine pipeline (resting on bed, partially buried and fully buried) in clayey soil are measured. The influence of various parameters viz., wave period, wave height, water depth, burial depth and consistency index of the soil on wave pressures around and uplift force on the submarine pipeline was investigated. The wave pressures were measured at three locations around the submarine pipeline (each at 120° to the adjacent one). It is found that the wave pressure and uplift force spectrum at high consistency index of the soil is smaller compared to that of low consistency index. Just burying the pipeline (e/D=1.0) in clayey soil reduces the uplift force to less than 60% of the force experienced by a pipeline resting on the seabed (e/D=0.0) for I_c=0.33.     

Laboratory study of deep-water breaking waves

In an attempt to elucidate the mechanics of deep-water wave breaking, a variety of breaking waves, including spilling and plunging waves, of different length scales and geometries was studied. The waves were generated through wave-wave interactions using wave packets with constant-steepness components, constant-amplitude components, and also components following the Pierson-Moskowitz distribution. Wave steepening prior to breaking were found to cause an increase in the high frequency spectral slope of the wave spectrum. The slopes were correlated to the type of breaking and the intensity of the breaking. The energy loss through breaking varied with the spectral characteristics of the wave packet. On the other hand, it was also noted that, irrespective of the wave packet, the losses were from the higher frequency end of the first harmonics.     

云南省降水与赤道西太平洋海温的关系分析

应用谱分析方法，讨论了云南省降水与赤道西太平洋海表温度的关系，结果表明，云南省降水与赤道西太平洋海温在３个月，５个月及１８．４月的振动周期上有很好的耦合关系，对于１８．４个月的周期性振荡，云南省降水落后赤道西太平洋海温３个月，且降水对海温的响应是由西向东传播。     

井下地震计的P波接收函数正演计算及其稳定性研究——以首都圈地区为例

井下地震计波形记录的P波垂向分量存在频谱极小（spectrum null）现象,导致接收函数的结果不稳定.本文以首都圈地区为例,基于平面波入射的传播矩阵理论,发展了用于计算井下地震计的接收函数正演方法.在此基础上,分析了井下地震计波形垂向分量频谱极小现象,研究其对接收函数稳定性的影响.结果表明,井下地震计波形记录垂向分量的频谱极小开始出现的频率和地震计的埋深相关.该现象可造成反卷积提取的接收函数不稳定,且不稳定情况出现在频谱极小附近的频段,可通过选择合适的高斯因子压制其对接收函数的影响.

     

我国华东与西南县域主要气象敏感性疾病变化特征及其医疗费用研究

摘要：针对目前医疗费用不断上涨的现实问题,基于安徽省阜南县和贵州省锦屏县相关医疗机构的全部住院数据和气象资料,首先分析两县疾病谱特征,然后从季节和24节气角度,分析两县主要气象敏感性疾病（因天气和气候异常变化而诱发或加重的相关疾病）住院人次和医疗费用的变化特征以及人体舒适度对当地主要气象敏感性疾病发病的影响。结果表明,阜南县和锦屏县人群中住院人数最多的疾病分别是循环和呼吸系统两大类气象敏感性疾病,医疗费用最高的前六位疾病都包含循环、呼吸和消化系统疾病,其三者医疗费用总和分别占两县总医疗费用的44.9%和45.8%,因此,从降低医疗费用的角度来看加强这三类主要气象敏感性疾病的预防十分重要。此外,三种系统疾病医疗费用呈现出明显的季节变化特征：其中,循环系统疾病的医疗费用在季节转换期间明显高于各季节内,呼吸系统疾病冬春季的医疗费用远高于夏秋季节,消化系统疾病夏季医疗费用最高。两县9月的体感温度最接近人体最佳舒适温度,而此时上述三类疾病的住院人次及医疗费用也是相对低点。此研究结果可为当地相关疾病的适时防控、有效降低医疗费用提供科学依据。     

用南亚高压和西太副高的周期关系做多雨时段的预报研究

对１００ｈＰａ南亚高压的振荡指数及５００ｈＰａ西太平洋副高的强度指数、西进指数进行了谱分析,着重考察了５天到一个月的振荡周期。通过分析得出,南亚高压的显著周期主要是准两周周期,西太平洋副高的显著周期主要是准一周周期,其次是准 两周周期;在多数情况下,南亚高压东进比西太平洋副高西伸加强提前１￣２天;南亚高压的显著周期与西太平洋副高的显著周期叠加时,陕西地区可出现多雨时段。