A MODEL OF TROPICAL MARINE RESERVE‐FISHERY LINKAGES

ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls.     

Estimation in the continuous time mover‐stayer model with an application to bond ratings migration

The usual tool for modelling bond ratings migration is a discrete, time‐homogeneous Markov chain. Such model assumes that all bonds are homogeneous with respect to their movement behaviour among rating categories and that the movement behaviour does not change over time. However, among recognized sources of heterogeneity in ratings migration is age of a bond (time elapsed since issuance). It has been observed that young bonds have a lower propensity to change ratings, and thus to default, than more seasoned bonds. The aim of this paper is to introduce a continuous, time‐non‐homogeneous model for bond ratings migration, which also incorporates a simple form of population heterogeneity. The specific form of heterogeneity postulated by the proposed model appears to be suitable for modelling the effect of age of a bond on its propensity to change ratings. This model, called a mover–stayer model, is an extension of a Markov chain. This paper derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a continuous time mover–stayer model based on a sample of independent continuously monitored histories of the process, and develops the likelihood ratio statistic for discriminating between the Markov chain and the mover–stayer model. The methods are illustrated using a sample of rating histories of young corporate issuers. For these issuers the default probabilities predicted by the Markov chain and mover–stayer models are different. In particular for 1–4 years old bonds the mover–stayer model estimates substantially lower default probabilities from rating C than a Markov chain. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新型菲涅尔线聚光太阳电池组件特性分析

以PMMA为材料,采用热压成型工艺加工线聚焦菲涅尔聚光棱镜,对在其聚光条件下不同入射角度情况下太阳电池的电流电压特性进行测试,结果表明:该菲涅尔线聚焦棱镜能有效提高太阳电池的单位输出功率,而且具有比较宽泛的集光角的特性,基本满足实际应用的要求.     

A parallel cell‐based DSMC method on unstructured adaptive meshes

A parallel DSMC method based on a cell‐based data structure is developed for the efficient simulation of rarefied gas flows on PC‐clusters. Parallel computation is made by decomposing the computational domain into several subdomains. Dynamic load balancing between processors is achieved based on the number of simulation particles and the number of cells allocated in each subdomain. Adjustment of cell size is also made through mesh adaptation for the improvement of solution accuracy and the efficient usage of meshes. Applications were made for a two‐dimensional supersonic leading‐edge flow, the axi‐symmetric Rothe's nozzle, and the open hollow cylinder flare flow for validation. It was found that the present method is an efficient tool for the simulation of rarefied gas flows on PC‐based parallel machines. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Desorption behavior of a surfactant in a linear low‐density polyethylene blend at elevated temperatures

The desorption behavior of a surfactant in a linear low‐density polyethylene (LLDPE) blend at elevated temperatures of 50, 70, and 80 °C was studied with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The composition of the LLDPE blend was 70:30 LLDPE/low‐density polyethylene. Three different specimens (II, III, and IV) were prepared with various compositions of a small molecular penetrant, sorbitan palmitate (SPAN‐40), and a migration controller, poly(ethylene acrylic acid) (EAA), in the LLDPE blend. The calculated diffusion coefficient (D) of SPAN‐40 in specimens II, III, and IV, between 50 and 80 °C, varied from 1.74 × 10^?11 to 6.79 × 10^?11 cm²/s, from 1.10 × 10^?11 to 5.75 × 10^?11 cm²/s, and from 0.58 × 10^?11 to 4.75 × 10^?11 cm²/s, respectively. In addition, the calculated activation energies (E_D) of specimens II, III, and IV, from the plotting of ln D versus 1/T between 50 and 80 °C, were 42.9, 52.7, and 65.6 kJ/mol, respectively. These values were different from those obtained between 25 and 50 °C and were believed to have been influenced by the interference of Tinuvin (a UV stabilizer) at elevated temperatures higher than 50 °C. Although the desorption rate of SPAN‐40 increased with the temperature and decreased with the EAA content, the observed spectral behavior did not depend on the temperature and time. For all specimens stored over 50 °C, the peak at 1739 cm^?1 decreased in a few days and subsequently increased with a peak shift toward 1730 cm^?1. This arose from the carbonyl stretching vibration of Tinuvin, possibly because of oxidation or degradation at elevated temperatures. In addition, the incorporation of EAA into the LLDPE blend suppressed the desorption rate of SPAN‐40 and retarded the appearance of the 1730 cm^?1 peak. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part B: Polym Phys 42: 1114–1126, 2004     

Effects of poly[styrene‐b‐(ethylene‐co‐butylene)‐b‐styrene] on the charge distributions of low‐density polyethylene/polystyrene blends

The effect of the triblock copolymer poly[styrene‐b‐(ethylene‐co‐butylene)‐b‐styrene] (SEBS) on the formation of the space charge of immiscible low‐density polyethylene (LDPE)/polystyrene (PS) blends was investigated. Blends of 70/30 (wt %) LDPE/PS were prepared through melt blending in an internal mixer at a blend temperature of 220 °C. The amount of charge that accumulated in the 70% LDPE/30% PS blends decreased when the SEBS content increased up to 10 wt %. For compatibilized and uncompatibilized blends, no significant change in the degree of crystallinity of LDPE in the blends was observed, and so the effect of crystallization on the space charge distribution could be excluded. Morphological observations showed that the addition of SEBS resulted in a domain size reduction of the dispersed PS phase and better interfacial adhesion between the LDPE and PS phases. The location of SEBS at a domain interface enabled charges to migrate from one phase to the other via the domain interface and, therefore, resulted in a significant decrease in the amount of space charge for the LDPE/PS blends with SEBS. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part B: Polym Phys 42: 2813–2820, 2004     

The Research on Polymer Microcapsulation for Cell Technology

Microcapsulation is a technology that enwrapped the solid or liquid or some gas matter with membrane materials to form microparticles(i.e.microcapsules). The materials of microcapsule is composed of naturnal polymers or modified naturnal polymers or synthesized polymers. The water-soluble core matter can only use oil-soluble wall materials, and vice versa.Synthesized methods of polymer microcapsulesSynthesized methods with monomers as raw materialsThis kind of methods include suspension polymerization, emulsion polymerization, dispersal polymerization, precipitation polymerization,suspension condensation polymerization, dispersal condensation polymerization, deposition condensation polymerization, interface condensation polymerization, and so on.Synthesized methods with polymers as raw materialsThese methods are suspension cross-linked polymerization, coacervation phase separation,extraction with solvent evaporation, polymer deposition, polymer chelation, polymer gel,solidification of melting polymer, tray-painted ways, fluidized bed ways, and so forth.Polymer materials to synthesize microcapsules2.1. Naturnal polymer materialsThe characteristics of this kind of materials are easy to form membrane, good stability and no toxicity. The polymer materials include lipids(liposome), amyloses, proteins, plant gels, waxes, etc.2.2. Modified polymer materialsThe characteristics of these materials are little toxicity, high viscidity(viscosity), soluble salt materials. But they cannot be used in water, acidic environment and high temperature environment for a long time. The materials include all kind of derivants of celluloses.2.3. Synthesized polymer materialsThe characteristics of the materials are easy to form membrane, good stability and adjustment of membrane properties. The synthesized polymer materials include degradable polymers(PLA, PGA,PLGA, PCL, PHB, PHV, PHA, PEG, PPG and the like) and indegradable polymers(PA, PMMA,PAM, PS, PVC, PB, PE, PU, PUA, PVA and otherwise).The applications of polymer microcapsules in cell technologyThe "artificial cell" is the biological active microcapsule used in biological and medical fields.The applications of cells (including transgenic cells, the same as artificial cells) technology include several aspects as follows:3.1. Microcapsulation of artificial red cell3.2. Microcapsule of artificial cell of biological enzyme3.3. Microcapsule of artificial cell of magnetic material3.4. Microcapsule of artificial cell of active carbon3.5. Microcapsule of active biological cell     

Optimization of Mass Transfer Processes in the Zone of the Air Electrode of a Fuel Cell with a Solid Polymer Electrolyte

A two-dimensional mathematical model for the transport of reactants in a fuel cell with a solid polymer electrolyte is developed. The model is used for analyzing spatial distributions of the concentration of reactants and current density over the cell. The effect of the catalytic-layer activity, reactant speed, bipolar-plate geometry, thickness and porosity of current collector and/or gas-diffusion sublayer, and the reaction mixture composition on the fuel cell efficiency is estimated theoretically and experimentally.     

SASEGASA: A New Generic Parallel Evolutionary Algorithm for Achieving Highest Quality Results

This paper presents a new generic Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) for retarding the unwanted effects of premature convergence. This is accomplished by a combination of interacting generic methods. These generalizations of a Genetic Algorithm (GA) are inspired by population genetics and take advantage of the interactions between genetic drift and migration. In this regard a new selection scheme is introduced, which is designed to directedly control genetic drift within the population by advantageous self-adaptive selection pressure steering. Additionally this new selection model enables a quite intuitive heuristics to detect premature convergence. Based upon this newly postulated basic principle the new selection mechanism is combined with the already proposed Segregative Genetic Algorithm (SEGA), an advanced Genetic Algorithm (GA) that introduces parallelism mainly to improve global solution quality. As a whole, a new generic evolutionary algorithm (SASEGASA) is introduced. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated on a set of characteristic benchmark problems. Computational results show that the new method is capable of producing highest quality solutions without any problem-specific additions.