Hunting Increases Dispersal Limitation in the Tree Carapa procera, a Nontimber Forest Product

Abstract:  The sustainability of seed extraction from natural populations has been questioned recently. Increased recruitment failure under intense seed harvesting suggests that seed extraction intensifies source limitation. Nevertheless, areas where more seeds are collected tend to also have more intense hunting of seed-dispersing animals. We studied whether such hunting, by limiting disperser activity, could cause quantitative dispersal limitation, especially for large crops and for crops in years of high seed abundance. In each of four Carapa procera (Meliaceae) populations in French Guiana and Surinam, two with hunting and two without, we compared seed fate for individual trees varying in crop size in years of high and low population-level seed abundance. Carapa seeds are a nontimber forest product and depend on dispersal by scatter-hoarding rodents for survival and seedling establishment. Hunting negatively affected the proportion of seeds dispersed and caused greater numbers of seeds to germinate or be infested by moths below parent trees, where they would likely die. Hunting of seed-dispersing animals disproportionally affected large seed crops, but we found no additional effect of population-level seed abundance on dispersal rates. Consistently lower rates of seed dispersal, especially for large seed crops, may translate to lower levels of seedling recruitment under hunting. Our results therefore suggest that the subsistence hunting that usually accompanies seed collection is at the cost of seed dispersal and may contribute to recruitment failure of these nontimber forest products. Seed extraction from natural populations may affect seedling recruitment less if accompanied by measures adequately incorporating and protecting seed dispersers.     

伪装遮障材料耐老化性能与机理分析

目的 研究伪装遮障材料在实用期的老化机理,获悉伪装遮障材料失效的主要环境因素。方法 通过分析伪装遮障材料在自然环境和实验室单因素环境中的性能变化,得出影响伪装遮障材料老化失效的主要因素。采用扫描电子显微镜、红外光谱仪、X射线光电子能谱仪表征材料的微观形貌、化学结构和化学成分变化,解释伪装遮障材料的老化机理。结果 获得了在不同自然环境、实验室单因素环境下,伪装遮障材料颜色外观和力学性能的变化规律,得到了伪装遮障材料在老化过程中发生的微观形貌、化学结构和化学成分变化。结论 伪装遮障材料在西双版纳自然环境下的老化程度最大,在济南自然环境下的老化程度最小。光照是导致伪装遮障材料颜色外观及力学性能降低的主要因素。老化过程中,主要是材料表面的聚氨酯发生老化、脱落,导致材料的力学性能下降。伪装遮障材料破坏时,纤维有2种失效形式,一种是纤维脱黏、直接断裂;另一种是纤维脱黏,拔出,或者拔出过程中断裂。     

基于SVR的含缺陷管道剩余强度研究

针对采用标准预测含缺陷管道剩余强度误差较大这一问题,在Matlab中建立基于SVR的含缺陷管道剩余强度预测模型,并基于60组含缺陷管道爆破试验数据进行训练测试,以验证模型的实际性能.结果表明:SVR模型预测测试集结果的最小相对误差为0.55％,最大相对误差为10.35％,平均相对误差为2.63％,预测结果的R2高达0....     

基于改进RPS的共因失效模型及在安全仪表系统中的应用研究

基于安全仪表系统共因失效机理的定性分析,在单一冲击下的RPS模型基础上,以泊松分布作为冲击的先验分布,建立了多冲击下考虑共因失效的安全仪表系统可靠性模型;采用基于专家经验和估计的方法,对模型参数进行估计;并通过定量分析确定出影响系统共因失效的最大冲击因子,为降低系统共因失效对可靠性的影响提供辅助决策支持。将改进的多冲击RPS模型的可靠性分析结果与β模型和PDS模型进行比较,验证了该模型的工程准确性。     

深水河大桥桥墩边坡稳定性分析

深水河大桥桥墩边坡地处广乐高速深水河大桥段,其稳定性直接关系着桥墩桩基工程能否顺利施工和整段广乐高速的工程进度。本文采用定性分析和定量计算的方法对深水河大桥桥墩边坡稳定性进行了分析,定性分析主要是通过赤平投影法作图初步分析边坡局部可能出现的组合滑面破坏模式,再取典型的楔形体进行破坏模式分析,定量计算主要是采用Bishop法分别计算该边坡在不同工况下的稳定系数,从而对该边坡的整体稳定性进行评价,以便提出相应的治理措施。     

Sludge concentration dynamic distribution and its impact on the performance of UNITANK

UNITANK is a biological wastewater treatment process that combines the advantages of traditional activated sludge process and sequencing batch reactor, which is divided into Tank A, B and C. In this study, the sludge distribution and its impact on performance of UNITANK were carried out in Liede Wastewater Plant （WWTP） of Guangzhou, China. Results showed that there was a strong affiliation between Tank A and B of the system in sludge concentration distribution. The initial sludge concentration in Tank A could present the sludge distribution of the whole system. The sludge distribution was mainly influenced by hydraulic condition. Unsteady sludge distribution had an impact on variations of substrates in reactors, especially in decisive reactor, and this could lead to failure of system. Settler could partially remove substrates such as COD and NO3-N, but there was adventure of sludge deterioration. The rational initial sludge concentration in Tank A should be 4000-6000 mg/L MLSS.     

一种高压油管焊接质量评价方法

阐述了高压油管疲劳破坏的原理及危害,建立高压油管焊接质量评价力学模型,通过有限元分析技术对其许用位移输入进行计算,并结合应变测量技术,利用电动振动台,对高压油管焊接处的疲劳特性进行了试验验证。结果表明,此高压油管焊接质量评价方法是可行的,有限元分析技术和应变测量技术的结合使用,保证了试验的安全性和结果准确性,此外,利用电动振动台进行疲劳耐久试验,操作方便简单,成本相对较低,具有通用性。     

Cascade-based attack vulnerability on the US power grid

The vulnerability of real-life networks subject to intentional attacks has been one of the outstanding challenges in the study of the network safety. Applying the real data of the US power grid, we compare the effects of two different attacks for the network robustness against cascading failures, i.e., removal by either the descending or ascending orders of the loads. Adopting the initial load of a node j to be L_j=[k_j(Σ_mΓjk_m)]^α with k_j and Γ_j being the degree of the node j and the set of its neighboring nodes, respectively, where α is a tunable parameter and governs the strength of the initial load of a node, we investigate the response of the US power grid under two attacks during the cascading propagation. In the case of α<0.7, our investigation by the numerical simulations leads to a counterintuitive finding on the US power grid that the attack on the nodes with the lowest loads is more harmful than the attack on the ones with the highest loads. In addition, the almost same effect of two attacks in the case of α=0.7 may be useful in furthering studies on the control and defense of cascading failures in the US power grid.     

PHAST软件在丁腈反应釜定量后果分析中的应用

丁腈反应釜运行过程中若发生泄漏事故,不仅厂区内部,而且附近区域的人员生命与财产都将遭受巨大的损失和危害.过去对一些物质的泄漏后果,人们提出了一些可靠的数学模型,但模型计算量大,容易出错.而采用后果软件PHAST具有很强的操作性.以某化工厂1台丁腈反应釜为例,用DNV公司的PHAST软件预测反应釜中丙烯腈和1,3-丁二烯的混合物发生泄漏后,对周围环境造成的影响.分别讨论了火灾、爆炸和毒性的影响,预测事故危害程度和范围.可为识别主要危险因素,采取相应的安全对策措施,发生事故后的现场控制等提供科学的参考依据.     

复杂社会技术系统安全事故的成因结构敏感性及预防对策研究

简要回顾现有复杂社会技术系统安全事故的成因理论存在的局限性,根据大量统计资料和经验总结构建事故成因理论的缺陷。该研究试图从分析和推理入手,根据复杂社会技术系统运行机制及事故成因结构敏感性特征,探索由于新技术快速普及应用而不断涌现的复杂社会技术系统的失效机制及事故的成因理论;解释复杂社会技术系统安全事故的严重程度差异性、时间方向性及情境依赖性;为任何因新技术普及应用而产生的人造系统的安全分析及事故预防提供理论和方法支撑。