Mitigation and adaptation synergy in forest sector

Mitigation and adaptation are the two main strategies to address climate change. Mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in the global negotiations as well as literature. There is a realization on the need to explore and promote synergy between mitigation and adaptation while addressing climate change. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the synergy between mitigation and adaptation by considering forest sector, which on the one hand is projected to be adversely impacted under the projected climate change scenarios and on the other provide opportunities to mitigate climate change. Thus, the potential and need for incorporating adaptation strategies and practices in mitigation projects is presented with a few examples. Firstly, there is a need to ensure that mitigation programs or projects do not increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystems and plantations. Secondly, several adaptation practices could be incorporated into mitigation projects to reduce vulnerability. Further, many of the mitigation projects indeed reduce vulnerability and promote adaptation, for example; forest and biodiversity conservation, protected area management and sustainable forestry. Also, many adaptation options such as urban forestry, soil and water conservation and drought resistant varieties also contribute to mitigation of climate change. Thus, there is need for research and field demonstration of synergy between mitigation and adaptation, so that the cost of addressing climate change impacts can be reduced and co-benefits increased.     

Change in vegetation cover in East Timor, 1989–1999

Forest resources play a key role and provide many basic needs to communities in developing economies. To assess the patterns of vegetation cover change, as a corollary of resource utilization, satellite imagery, ground truth data, and image processing techniques can be useful. This article is concerned with identifying change in major vegetation types in East Timor between 1989 and 1999, using Landsat Thematic Mapper data. The results highlight a significant level of deforestation and decline in foliage cover. All major vegetation cover types declined from 1989 to 1999, and there was a sizeable increase in degraded woodlands. This decline has had considerable impact on the livelihoods of rural and urban communities. Causes for these changes include: economic exploitation of abundant resources; and implications of transmigration policies implemented during Indonesian rule, resulting in increased competition for land and woodland resources. As the new nation of Timor‐Leste establishes itself, it must consider its current stock and distribution of natural capital to ensure that development efforts are geared towards sustainable outcomes. Without the knowledge of historical patterns of resource consumption, development efforts may, unwittingly, lead to continuing decline in forest resources.     

The challenges of sustainability in mining regions: The coal mining region of Santa Catarina, Brazil

Throughout history, mining communities have invariably found themselves striving for a good quality of life and a long‐term future. In the 21st century, problems of maintaining the economic vitality of mining regions are now compounded by concerns about the biophysical integrity of the local environment. In regions of the world where the economic viability of the resource is marginal and achieving a reasonable quality of life is a daily struggle, sustainable mining may seem to be a dubious prospect at best. Yet the twin imperatives of global political forces and burgeoning environmental concerns are requiring industry, governments and other interests to re‐conceptualize the way in which mining takes place in communities. Although mining itself may not be seen as an industry that contributes to the achievement of environmental objectives, it could — with careful planning — be used as a tool to foster a more sustainable and healthier community. This argument is considered in the context of the coal mining region of Santa Catarina, Brazil.     

基于机器学习分类算法解析EIS数据的有机涂层性能评价方法

目的 基于机器学习分类算法快速评估有机涂层的防腐性能。方法 通过实验室加速试验模拟涂层真实的退化过程,并根据测得的电化学数据,分析不同退化阶段的等效电路元件参数。随后,采用随机抽样方法获取大量数据,用于机器学习模型训练。通过对比支持向量机(SVM)、k最近邻(k-NN)和随机森林(RF)3种不同的机器学习算法,以及多种输入特征集训练的涂层性能分类器模型的准确率,分析最适合用于涂层性能快速评估的机器学习算法和电化学特征。结果 根据不同输入特征训练的k-NN和RF模型均表现出良好的预测效果,而SVM模型的预测效果相对较差。根据不同频率范围训练的分类器模型中,在低频区表现最佳,而在高频区表现较差。结论 基于阻抗虚部、虚部+实部和阻抗模值3种输入特征训练的RF分类器模型的预测效果最准确。不同频率区间内,低频区的阻抗特征更能准确表征涂层性能。     

Sustainable consumption in Brazil: Identification of preliminary requirements to guide product development and the definition of public policies

Sustainable product development is closely related to sustainable consumption. The understanding of consumers' purchase, use and discard behaviours may facilitate the identification of requirements to guide manufacturers in the development of sustainable goods and services. The aim of this paper is to investigate consumers' perception about factors that motivate or discourage the consumption of sustainable products to identify demands and convert them into requirements. South Brazilian green and traditional consumers were asked to complete an exploratory qualitative questionnaire. Their answers were organized and compared to identify differences and similarities between the demands of these two groups. Furthermore, demands were converted into requirements for packages, products, manufactures, stores planning and discard systems. The interpretation of factors that motivate or discourage the purchase of sustainable products given by interviewees led to the creation of a list of possible public policies or programmes, aiming to support sustainable consumption. The results demonstrate the necessity of further quantitative investigation between consumer groups, for validation purposes.     

Vietnamese Uplands: Environmental and Socio-Economic Perspective of Forest Land Allocation and Deforestation Process

Vietnam, in the ongoing transition to market economies, has to cope with high rural poverty and a dramatic process of forest loss and environment degradation, particularly in the mountainous regions. The government considers rural poverty as the main cause of environment degradation, associated with slash-and-burn cultivation and to an unclear definition of property rights on forest land. In 1993, the government launched a Forest Land Allocation programme aiming to lease forest lands to individual households and, on this basis, to solve food security problems, halt the increasing environment degradation and preserve the remaining forests.To evaluate the results of this land reform policy, two upland pilot communes have been intensively monitored. The environmental and economic impacts of the forest land reform allocation in the two study areas are presented, after providing a background on the Vietnamese situation of mountain zones. On the basis of these findings, it is discussed as to whether the current forest land allocation process may actually promote local development and natural resources conservation, and under what conditions. Deforestation problems must be tackled also with new macroeconomic policies (e.g. credit programmes to support sustainable agriculture practices) and social policy (e.g. reduction of demographic pressure), together with the reform of the State institutions (e.g. State Forest Enterprises) involved in management of the forest areas.     

Impacts of interannual climate variability on past and future forest composition

Numerous analyses of the possible impacts of future climatic changes on tree species composition have been published for both lowland and high-elevation forests. Most of these studies were based on the application of forest "gap" models, and the vast majority of them considered only changes in the average of climatic parameters over time. In this study, we use a unique data set on reconstructed past climatic variations to analyse forest dynamics simulated by the forest gap model ForClim. This analysis forms the basis for a systematic exploration of the ecological effects of changing means vs. changing variability of climate on central European forests. A reconstruction of historical climate covering the last 470 years in the Swiss lowlands (ClimIndex) is extrapolated to a transect across the alpine (cold) treeline and used to simulate the influence of climate variations on the time scale of decades on forest biomass and tree species composition at both sites. While the simulation at the low-elevation site shows little sensitivity to climate variations, the results from upper subalpine forests suggest that two major dieback events would have occurred at elevations above the current but below the climatic tree line, induced by clusters of exceptionally cold summers. The results are in agreement with available dendrochronological data and with documentary evidence on massive negative impacts on flora and fauna at high elevations during these periods. We conclude that ForClim is capable of capturing the effects on tree population dynamics of climate variability at these sites as reconstructed from the ClimIndex record. A factorial design is used to address the sensitivity of ForClim to changes of the long-term averages vs. changes of the variability of monthly temperature and precipitation data. To this end, the simulated tree species composition of near-natural forests is examined along a climate gradient in Europe. The results indicate that there are three types of forest response: (1) little sensitivity to both kinds of change, (2) strong sensitivity to changes in the means, but little sensitivity to changing variability, and (3) strong sensitivity to changing variability at least in parts of the examined climate space. Half of the cases investigated fall under the third category, suggesting that emphasis should be placed on also assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems to future changes in climate variability rather than on changes of average values alone. Electronic Publication     

Isotope tracing of submarine groundwater discharge offshore Ubatuba, Brazil: results of the IAEA–UNESCO SGD project

Results of groundwater and seawater analyses for radioactive (³H, ²²²Rn, ²²³Ra, ²²⁴Ra, ²²⁶Ra, and ²²⁸Ra) and stable (D and ¹⁸O) isotopes are presented together with in situ spatial mapping and time series ²²²Rn measurements in seawater, direct seepage measurements using manual and automated seepage meters, pore water investigations using different tracers and piezometric techniques, and geoelectric surveys probing the coast. This study represents first time that such a new complex arsenal of radioactive and non-radioactive tracer techniques and geophysical methods have been used for simultaneous submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) investigations. Large fluctuations of SGD fluxes were observed at sites situated only a few meters apart (from 0 cm d⁻¹ to 360 cm d⁻¹; the unit represents cm³/cm²/day), as well as during a few hours (from 0 cm d⁻¹ to 110 cm d⁻¹), strongly depending on the tidal fluctuations. The average SGD flux estimated from continuous ²²²Rn measurements is 17 ± 10 cm d⁻¹. Integrated coastal SGD flux estimated for the Ubatuba coast using radium isotopes is about 7 × 10³ m³ d⁻¹ per km of the coast. The isotopic composition (δD and δ¹⁸O) of submarine waters was characterised by significant variability and heavy isotope enrichment, indicating that the contribution of groundwater in submarine waters varied from a small percentage to 20%. However, this contribution with increasing offshore distance became negligible. Automated seepage meters and time series measurements of ²²²Rn activity concentration showed a negative correlation between the SGD rates and tidal stage. This is likely caused by sea level changes as tidal effects induce variations of hydraulic gradients. The geoelectric probing and piezometric measurements contributed to better understanding of the spatial distribution of different water masses present along the coast. The radium isotope data showed scattered distributions with offshore distance, which imply that seawater in a complex coast with many small bays and islands was influenced by local currents and groundwater/seawater mixing. This has also been confirmed by a relatively short residence time of 1–2 weeks for water within 25 km offshore, as obtained by short-lived radium isotopes. The irregular distribution of SGD seen at Ubatuba is a characteristic of fractured rock aquifers, fed by coastal groundwater and recirculated seawater with small admixtures of groundwater, which is of potential environmental concern and has implications on the management of freshwater resources in the region.     

Brazil's Electric Power Choices and Their Corresponding Carbon Emissions Implications

This study analyzes the options for meeting power demand in the Brazilianpower sector through the year 2015. Three policy cases are constructedto test economic and environmental policy measures against a baseline:advanced technologies scenario, environmental control scenario and carbon(C) elimination scenario. Least-cost modeling simulated these scenarios throughchanges in emissions fees and caps, costs for advanced technologies,demand side efficiency, and clean energy supplies. Results show that, in theabsence of alternative policies, new additions to Brazil's electric powersector will shift rapidly from hydroelectricity to combined-cycle natural gasplants. When the cost of environmental impacts are incorporated in theprice of power, the least-cost mix of electric power generation technologycould change in other ways. In all scenarios, energy efficiency andcogeneration play an important role in the least-cost power solution. Savingelectricity through increased efficiency offsets the needs for new supply andhas enormous potential in Brazil's industrial sector. Efficiency also reducesthe environmental burden associated with electricity production andtransmission, without compromising the quality of the services demandedby end users. Interesting enough, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions will remainrelatively low under almost every conceivable scenario.     

树木水分胁迫和抗旱性机理研究进展

本文从植物对干旱胁迫的反应和抗旱指标、光合作用和蒸腾作用和水分利用效率等研究途径,以及人工采取的抗旱措施等方面阐述了森林植物的抗旱性机理研究现状,并提出了今后研究的重点方向。