Analysis of the Trend and Seasonal Cycle of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in an Urban Area (4 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects. Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February 2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied. One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O₃ and PM to examine underlying trends. Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal variations. Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions. There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions which is a direct consequence of the holiday period. Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions. Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability     

Sustainability: a Dissent

Abstract:  Broadly conceived and considered in its many usages, sustainability has grave defects as a planning goal, particularly when used by conservationists: it confuses means and ends; it is vague about what is being sustained and who or what is doing the sustaining; it is uninspiring; it is little more than Pinchot-era conservation (and thus ignores the many lessons learned since then); it need not be linked to land, to the land's functioning, or to any ecological science; it need not include a moral component; it is consistent with the view of humans as all-powerful manipulators of the planet; and, in general, it is such a malleable term that its popularity provides only a facade of consensus. When sustainability is defined broadly to include the full range of economic and social aspirations, it poses the particular risk that ecological and biodiversity concerns will be cast aside in favor of more pressing human wants. Given these many defects, the conservation movement should discard the term in favor of a more alluring goal, attentive to nature and its ecological functioning. A sound goal would incorporate and distill the considerable ecological and moral wisdom accumulated since Pinchot's day while giving conservationists the rhetorical tools needed to defend the land against competing pressures. In our view, conservation would be well served by an updated variant of "land health," Aldo Leopold's ecologically grounded goal from the 1940s. Land health as an independent understanding should set the essential terms of how we live and enjoy the earth, providing the framework within which we pursue our many social and economic aims.     

战略环境评价的工作程序

介绍了战略环境评价（法规、政策、计划和规划层次）工作程序的三个环节：评价方案的制定、评价实施和评价总结。并提出了战略环境评价指标体系制定的原则、战略环境评价的具体步骤及战略环境评价报告书的基本内容。     

战略环境评价及其应用初探

概述了战略环境价的概念、产生原因、研究现状及其工作程序，结合川南矿肥工程项目对它进行了应用初探，提出了计划、规划层次ＳＥＡ的方法和指标，并对我国环评工作提出了建议。     

环境意识调查与思考

本文调查了呼和浩特教育学院师范类小学教育大专班新生的环境意识。从环境知识、环境态度、环境预期行为等方面进行了分析，为丰富学校和社会的环境教育提供了依据。     

大连声环境质量的灰色预测研究

根据1999年～2003年大连市区声环境质量的监测数据，采用两次残差修正GM（1，1）对2010年前声环境质量进行预测结果表明，修正后模型均为一级模型，进行中、短期预测精度高。预测结果可为城市噪声污染防治提供科学的依据。     

参窝水库水体自净能力及水质变化规律研究

根据参窝水库近几年的水质监测资料，对参窝水库的水体自净能力及水质变化规律进行了较深入的研究、计算出主要污染物在参窝水库的自净率，分析了参窝水库水质变化规律，为参窝水库的水污染防治提供了科学的依据。     

Concurrency: a system design approach to environmental management and sustainability

The lessons of history indicate that mismanagement of natural resources and the environment often leads to potentially adverse consequences.The increasing interest in economic development,particularly in the developing countries of the world coupled with increasing population pressures and the globalization of economic activity is placing noticeable stresses on the ultimate sustainability of both human and environmental systems.Sustainable development is not a new concept.It has been an area of concern for different elements of society for some time.Yet efforts to understand the implications of sustainable development have not,until recently,been formalized.We have focused singularly on economic development and environmental quality as if they were mutually exclusive.This paper focuses on the concept of concurrency as both a conceptual framework and practicable method of understanding and implementing the ecology and economy of sustainability.     

全球环境问题与当代国际关系

环境问题使人类面临着前所未有的生存与发展的巨大挑战，也深刻影响着当代国际关系的发展和演变。该文对环境问题引起的国家安全，全球环境问题的南北分歧，以及南北矛盾的焦点等几个方面，分别进行了阐述和分析，随着环境总是的国际化和全球化，国际社会把保护环境看成是各国政府的共同义务和责任，而与此同时国际间的环境合与竞争关系也得到了进一步的发展。     

Microwave digestion method in environmental analysis

Ｍｉｃｒｏｗａｖｅｄｉｇｅｓｔｉｏｎｍｅｔｈｏｄｉｎｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌａｎａｌｙｓｉｓ￥ＺｈａｎｇＹｕｅ（ＷａｄｓｗｏｒｔｈＣｅｎｔｒｅ，ＮｅｗＹｏｒｋＳｔａｔｅＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＨｅａｌｔｈＳｃｈｏｏｌｏｆＰｕｂｌｉｃＨｅａｌｔｈ，Ｓ...