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This paper aims to identify the main driving force for changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing during the period of 1981-2005. Sectoral energy use was investigated when regional economic structure changed significantly. The changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing are decomposed into production effects, structural effects and intensity effects using the additive version of the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. Aggregate decomposition analysis showed that the major contributor of total effect was made by the production effect followed by the intensity effect, and the structural effect was relatively insignificant. The total and production effects were all positive. In contrast, the structural effect and intensity effect were all negative. Sectoral decomposition investigation indicated that the most effective way to slow down the growth rate of total primary energy consumption (TPEC) was to reduce the production of the energy-intensive industrial sectors and improving industrial energy intensity. The results show that in this period, Beijing's economy has undergone a transformation from an industrial to a service economy. However, the structures of sectoral energy use have not been changed yet, and energy demand should be increasing until the energy-intensive industrial production to be reduced and energy intensity of the region reaches a peak. As sequence energy consumption data of sub-sectors are not available, only the fundamental three sectors are considered: agriculture, industry and service. However, further decomposition into secondary and tertiary sectors is definitely needed for detailed investigations. 相似文献
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The Factor Decomposition on Carbon Emission of China——Based on LMDI Decomposition Technology 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Guo Chaoxian 《中国人口.资源与环境(英文版)》2011,9(1):42-47
Carbon emission is the current hot issue of global concern. How to assess various contributing factors for carbon emission is of great importance to find out the key factors and promote carbon emission reduction. In this paper, the author constructs an identical equation for carbon emission, based on the economic aggregate, the economic structure, the efficiency of energy utilization, the structure of energy consumption, and the coefficient of carbon emission; by applying to LMDI decomposition technology, the author analyzes the carbon emission of China from 1995 to 2007 at industrial level and regional level. The results show that the expansion of economic aggregate is the main reason for China’ s rapidly increasing carbon emission and the increase of energy utilization efficiency is the key factor that can hold back the increase of carbon emission. In addition, the change of industrial structure or regional structure and the change of traditional energy structure have limited influence on the carbon emission, and their potentials have not yet been exploited. At the end of this paper, the author proposes the efforts that China should make to reduce carbon emission. 相似文献
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基于2003~2015年长江三角洲(以下简称长三角)城市群26个城市工业废水和工业SO2排放数据,采用标准差椭圆、地理集中指数、工业环境绩效指数、空间形态差异指数等方法从宏观和微观视角对长三角城市群工业污染时空演化进行分析,同时采用对数平均迪氏分解(LMDI)模型对其工业污染排放主要驱动因素进行分解.研究发现:2003~2015年工业废水和工业SO2排放量分别下降了16.97%和28.79%,但占全国比重仍然较高,尤其是工业废水对生态环境胁迫较大.2种工业污染空间形态均呈现出北(偏西)-南(偏东)的空间分布形态,而2种工业污染重心移动轨迹并不一致,工业废水重心总体上朝向东(偏南)方向迁移了12.85km,而工业SO2重心总体上朝向西(偏北)方向迁移了26.89km.此外,2种工业污染主要集中分布于长江沿岸城市且污染集中度指数由高到低大致呈半圈层状向周围递减.工业发展与工业污染空间形态演变具有一致性,工业废水重心和工业SO2重心与工业发展重心距离均在逐渐缩小,而2种工业污染-环境绩效空间分布格局并不完全一致.驱动因素方面,环境规制引起的技术改善效应是工业污染排放量减少的主要原因,而由环境规制引起的产业结构效应对工业污染排放量的影响则取决于区域发展政策,经济发展效应是工业污染排放量增加的主要原因,人口规模效应对工业污染排放量的影响较小. 相似文献
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中国能源消费导致的CO2排放量的差异特征分析 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
运用一种不产生残差的方法——对数平均迪氏指数法LMDI(logarithmicmeanDivisiaindex),对中国部分省份、区域能源消费导致的二氧化碳排放量进行了分解分析。将二氧化碳排放总量的变化分解成五个主要影响因素,即化石燃料的排放系数、能源消费结构、能源强度、人均GDP和人口总数。研究表明我国各省(地区)的二氧化碳排放量在1996年后呈现零(或负)增长趋势,主要影响因素是能源强度的提高;各省(地区)的二氧化碳排放量地区差异显著。因此,要在全国实现二氧化碳排放量的总体减排,应从提高能源利用效率,调整产业结构,消除地区发展的不平衡,逐步改善能源消费结构等方面考虑。 相似文献
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基于化石能源消耗的重庆市二氧化碳排放峰值预测 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
首先利用重庆市能源平衡表,采用IPCC方法 1对重庆市1997—2012年的碳排放进行核算;其次依据重庆市经济社会发展状况,通过LMDI因素分解法将影响碳排放的因素分解为:人口、人均GDP、产业结构、能源结构、能源强度和碳排放系数;然后利用扩展的重庆市STIRPAT碳排放模型,在9个情景模式下对2013—2050年重庆市碳排放进行预测;最后对比分析了各情景下的峰值大小及出现时间.研究发现:基准模式下的重庆市碳排放在2035年出现32135.38万t的峰值;提高能源利用技术、增加清洁能源使用比例和大力发展第三产业,能在不降低经济发展的情况下有效降低碳排放;消极因素中的第二产业占比下降比碳排放强度下降对碳排放的抑制作用更加明显;积极因素对碳排放峰值的影响比消极因素更有效. 相似文献
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为更好地推动崇明低碳生态岛的建设,在应用以自下而上的部门法为基础的区域范围温室气体排放评估核算方法,全面核算崇明岛能源消费及温室气体排放现状的基础上,应用LEAP模型,通过情景分析预测崇明岛中长期能源消费需求以及温室气体排放水平,并进一步应用对数平均指数法(LMDI)对影响崇明岛未来温室气体排放的主要因素进行了定量分析。研究表明:参考情景下,崇明岛能源消费总量从2010年的101万吨标煤增加到2050年的533万吨标煤,净碳足迹从2010年的238万吨CO2e增加到2050年的579万吨CO2e。崇明岛能源消费需求和碳排放增加的主要驱动因素是未来的经济发展、人口增长和生活水平的提高,但是通过一系列的优化,尤其是能源结构的变化和能耗强度的下降,减排情景下,崇明岛能源消费总量有可能在2039年左右达到峰值,并有望在2050年左右实现"零碳岛"的长期发展目标。结合定量分析的结论,进一步提出了实现崇明岛低碳发展中长期目标的可能性和重点发展领域。 相似文献
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采用对数均值迪氏分解(LMDI)法对1995—2008年上海市碳排放强度进行分解分析. 结果表明,产业部门能源强度的下降是上海市碳排放强度下降的主要原因,贡献率为67.6%. 进一步分析显示,上海市能源强度的下降主要来源于第二产业,但由于传统的工业节能改造的潜力有限,近年来工业能源强度下降的速度逐渐放缓,其对碳强度减排的贡献趋于减少. 能源结构和产业结构的调整是碳排放强度下降的次要原因,贡献率分别为18.2%和14.2%. 但是能源结构和产业结构仍然存在较大的调整空间,这2个因素有望对碳排放强度的下降作出持久的贡献. 相似文献
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Carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions are a leading contributor to the negative effects of global warming. Globally, research has focused on effective means of reducing and mitigating CO2 emissions. In this study, we examined the efficacy of eco-industrial parks(EIPs) and accelerated mineral carbonation techniques in reducing CO2 emissions in South Korea.First, we used Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) analysis to determine the trends in carbon production and mitigation at the existing EIPs. We found that, although CO2 was generated as byproducts and wastes of production at these EIPs, improved energy intensity effects occurred at all EIPs, and we strongly believe that EIPs are a strong alternative to traditional industrial complexes for reducing net carbon emissions. We also examined the optimal conditions for using accelerated mineral carbonation to dispose of hazardous fly ash produced through the incineration of municipal solid wastes at these EIPs. We determined that this technique most efficiently sequestered CO2 when micro-bubbling, low flow rate inlet gas, and ammonia additives were employed. 相似文献