统计降尺度方法对青海湖地区气温变化的适用性分析及未来情景预估

运用SDSM统计降尺度方法对青海湖地区气象观测站实测日数据(1961-1990年)进行统计降尺度研究,应用独立的观测资料(1991-2000年)验证发现该方法在高海拔地区气温变化研究方面具有一定的适用性,所有观测站的日均误差均在1℃左右。对未来两种排放情景预估发现,未来气温变化表现出一致的升温趋势,且随着时间的推移升温趋势逐渐增加。从A、B两种气候情景的预估结果来看,21世纪中叶B情景下的增幅略大于A情景,不同月和季表现不同;到21世纪末A情景的下的月、季增幅均大于B情景。夏季增温最明显,秋季或冬季的增幅最小。21世纪中叶,平均增幅为1.87℃左右,到本世纪末,平均增幅达到3.69℃左右。这个结果与前人的研究预测基本一致。     

Spray Dried Soymilk Used in Reduced Fat Pork Sausage Patties

Spray-dried soymilks (SDSM) prepared from standard and lipoxygenase-null soybeans were incorporated into reduced fat pork sausage (PS). Comparisons of fat content, tenderness and consumer acceptance of SDSM PS with cooked regular (～30% fat), lean (～13% fat) and car-rageenan (0.4%) formulations were made. SDSM mixtures had 50-60% less fat and 41% lower caloric content than regular PS. Protein content and cooking yield were higher in SDSM PS than in regular PS. Texture of lean PS was improved by addition of SDSM, without alteration of flavor. No differences in PS flavor were noted between SDSMs or among formulations.     

基于统计降尺度的黄河源区气象极值预测

针对全球气候变化对水文过程及极值事件的影响,在HadCM3的A2、B2情景下,应用统计降尺度模型(SDSM)预测了黄河源区未来气温、降雨和蒸发极值的变化趋势,并讨论了模拟效果。结果表明,模型对温度极值的捕捉效果不错,但降雨和蒸发略差,尤其是降水量、蒸发量较大的夏秋季。多数降水极值指标的变化趋势能成功模拟,而对量的捕捉能力是随指标变化的,黄河源区未来不同季节平均气温、蒸发的平均值、极值均呈增加趋势,最大持续干旱日显著减少,极端降雨强度在春秋季节大幅增加。这些变化将对高原寒区的水文及生态环境带来积极影响。     

未来气候情景下兰江流域径流响应模拟

通过耦合SWAT水文模型和SDSM统计降尺度模型,研究全球气候变暖背景下兰江流域未来气候及其径流响应。选用2008～2019年兰溪水文站径流资料建立月尺度SWAT模型,将2030～2100年CanESM2模式RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5三种情景数据降尺度到兰江流域各气象站点,生成未来气候数据并输入到已校准的SWAT模型,模拟未来气候变化下的径流响应。结果表明,未来兰江流域径流呈上升趋势,RCP8.5情景增幅最大,RCP2.6情景次之,RCP4.5情景涨幅最小。各时段年径流量呈不同变化趋势,RCP2.6情景下为增至峰顶后稳定,RCP4.5情景下为增至峰顶后减少,RCP8.5情景下为持续上升态势。     

Development of spatial water resources vulnerability index considering climate change impacts

This study developed a new framework to quantify spatial vulnerability for sustainable water resources management. Four hydrologic vulnerability indices - potential flood damage (PFDC), potential drought damage (PDDC), potential water quality deterioration (PWQDC), and watershed evaluation index (WEIC) - were modified to quantify flood damage, drought damage, water quality deterioration, and overall watershed risk considering the impact of climate change, respectively. The concept of sustainability in the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was applied in selecting all appropriate indicators (criteria) of climate change impacts. In the examination of climate change, future meteorological data was obtained using CGCM3 (Canadian Global Coupled Model) and SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model), and future stream run-off and water quality were simulated using HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program — Fortran). The four modified indices were then calculated using TOPSIS, a multi-attribute method of decision analysis. As a result, the ranking obtained can be changed in consideration of climate change impacts. This study represents a new attempt to quantify hydrologic vulnerability in a manner that takes into account both climate change impacts and the concept of sustainability.     

多模式下泾河上游流域未来降水变化预估

利用站点实测资料、GCMs 月数据对 GCMs 进行秩评分评估排序, 从 21 种 GCMs 模式优选出的 6 种 GCM模式的日数据、6 种 GCM 集成的气候模式、站点实测资料和 NCEP 再分析资料构建统计降尺度模型 SDSM, 预估泾河上游流域的未来降水变化。结果表明: 构建的降尺度模型对降水模拟较为可靠, 率定期各模式决定系数 R2 为 0.228~ 0.324, 标准误差为 0.354~ 0.450, 率定期和验证期模拟月均降水与实测值年内分布相近。在降尺度性能评价中集成模式表现最好。在 RCP 4.5 情景下, 泾河上游流域未来降水大多数模式和集成模式呈增加趋势, 到 2030 年泾河上游流域降水量将增加 4.8% , 且当地的春季雨量会增加, 夏季雨量会减少。     

运城市过去50a和未来气候变化趋势研究

基于运城市1961—2010年的年平均气温和降水量实测数据,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和线性回归法对其进行了分析,并结合SDSM模型分析了未来两种气候情景下年平均气温和降水量的变化趋势。结果表明:1运城市50 a来年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,且1990年之后的年平均气温明显高于1990年前的,降水量呈下降趋势,但1991—2010年变化趋势较为平缓;2未来两种气候情景下,年平均气温和降水量基本呈上升(增加)趋势,且累计增长率也呈逐渐增大趋势,与B2情景相比,A2情景下年平均气温的增幅更大。     

The change and prediction of temperature and precipitation in the Dawen River basin using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM)

In order to explore the climate change in the Dawen River basin,based on the data of six weather stations in the Dawen River basin from 1966 to 2017,Mann Kendall test and wavelet analysis were used to study the temperature and precipitation trends,mutations and cycles in the region.In addition,based on the three scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5 under the CanESM2 model,SDSM was used to compare and analyze the future climate change of the Dawen River basin.The results revealed that:the annual mean temperature of the Dawen River basin had increased significantly since 1966 (p<0.01);in different scenarios,the spatial distribution of the projected maximum temperature,minimum temperature and precipitation will hardly change compared with that in history;the temperature and precipitation in the Dawen River basin will generally increase in the future.The rising trend of maximum and minimum temperature under the three scenarios is in the EP相似文献   

气候变化对金华江流域未来枯水的可能影响

枯水水文是水文学的重要组成部分,枯水与人类的生产生活以及生态息息相关。但与洪水相比较,枯水水文的研究并没有得到足够多的重视。气候变化与人类活动对全球和区域水资源的影响是当前研究的一个重点和难点。本文利用统计降尺度的方法来预测气候变化下金华江流域未来的降水和温度,同时结合萨克拉门托模型预测金华江流域的径流,最后对基准期实测径流和未来模拟径流的枯水指标7Q10和30Q10进行了比较,结果表明,在温室气体排放情景A2和B2两种气候情景下,这两个枯水指标都有明显增大的趋势。     

饶河流域未来水资源量变化预测分析

利用景德镇气象站1961-2001年的实测降水、气温数据以及NCEP再分析数据,建立饶河流域降水、气温的SDSM统计降尺度模型;根据IPCC AR4排放情景特别报告中的A2和B2情景,对HADCM3输出数据进行降尺度处理,预测饶河流域未来时段(2010-2099年)的降水、气温变化情况;与新安江模型进行耦合,得到未来时段饶河流域的水资源量。结果表明:饶河流域未来水资源量持续减少,且A2情景比B2情景的降幅更大,至2080s时期(2070-2099年)昌江支流最大降幅可达31.01%。