Method of Data Reduction and Uncertainty Estimation for Platinum-Group Element Data Using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry

A data reduction method is described for determining platinum-group element (PGE) abundances by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) using external calibration or the method of standard addition. Gravimetric measurement of volumes, the analysis of reference materials and the use of procedural blanks were all used to minimise systematic errors. Internal standards were used to correct for instrument drift. A linear least squares regression model was used to calculate concentrations from drift-corrected counts per second (cps). Furthermore, mathematical manipulations also contribute to the uncertainty estimates of a procedure. Typical uncertainty estimate calculations for ICP-MS data manipulations involve: (1) Carrying standard deviations from the raw cps through the data reduction or (2) calculating a standard deviation from multiple final concentration calculations. It is demonstrated that method 2 may underestimate the uncertainty estimate of the calculated data. Methods 1 and 2 do not typically include an uncertainty estimate component from a regression model. As such models contribute to the uncertainty estimates affecting the calculated data, an uncertainty estimate component from the regression must be included in any final error calculations. Confidence intervals are used to account for uncertainty estimates from the regression model. These confidence intervals are simpler to calculate than uncertainty estimates from method 1, for example. The data reduction and uncertainty estimation method described here addresses problems of reporting PGE data from an article in the literature and addresses both precision and accuracy. The method can be applied to any analytical technique where drift corrections or regression models are used.     

GPS卫星原子钟频率稳定度表征方法分析

原子钟频率稳定度的表征通常在时域和频域进行,而对于“尺度域”小波方差表征方法的分析研究较少。对该方法进行系统归纳总结的基础上,给出时域尺度域两类不同表征方法的实用计算公式及其置信度计算方法,通过对各种方差特性的比较分析,指出其适用范围。分析表明：时域系列方差计算简单、直接,各具特点,可以满足不同的实际需要;尺度域的小波方差是一种具有独特优越性的新方法,但可以达到时域表征方法的效果,适用于进行原子钟频率稳定度的估计。     

Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis

The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.     

古洪水流量的误差计算

古洪水研究已在大型工程和长江三峡，黄河小浪底等的设计洪水中得到动用取得了令人虚心成功，但古洪水流量的推求与实测量的计算往往有大的差别，根据随机误差的传播给出了一般情况下的古洪不流量推误差计算公式，以小流底２３６０ａＢＰ古洪水注同误差的计算为例，对最终计算出的古洪水流量成果给出了一个误差范围。     

地下管线探测的基本原理及解释方法研究

本文较详细地讨论了电磁直接探测法探测地下管线的基本原理和解释方法;提出了一种新的求解管线位置和深度、并给出探测结果可信度的向量交绘法。现场提供高可信度的结果;对管线探测仪器设备及应用效果作了介绍。     

Stability of motion in the Sitnikov 3-body problem

We study the stability of motion in the 3-body Sitnikov problem, with the two equal mass primaries (m ₁ = m ₂ = 0.5) rotating in the x, y plane and vary the mass of the third particle, 0 ≤ m ₃ < 10⁻³, placed initially on the z-axis. We begin by finding for the restricted problem (with m ₃ = 0) an apparently infinite sequence of stability intervals on the z-axis, whose width grows and tends to a fixed non-zero value, as we move away from z = 0. We then estimate the extent of “islands” of bounded motion in x, y, z space about these intervals and show that it also increases as |z| grows. Turning to the so-called extended Sitnikov problem, where the third particle moves only along the z-axis, we find that, as m ₃ increases, the domain of allowed motion grows significantly and chaotic regions in phase space appear through a series of saddle-node bifurcations. Finally, we concentrate on the general 3-body problem and demonstrate that, for very small masses, m ₃ ≈ 10⁻⁶, the “islands” of bounded motion about the z-axis stability intervals are larger than the ones for m ₃ = 0. Furthermore, as m ₃ increases, it is the regions of bounded motion closest to z = 0 that disappear first, while the ones further away “disperse” at larger m ₃ values, thus providing further evidence of an increasing stability of the motion away from the plane of the two primaries, as observed in the m ₃ = 0 case.     

5次中强震前河源地电台地电阻率的异常变化

１９７５￣１９９１年间,广东河源市新丰江水库区发生了５次ＭＬ４．７￣５．１级地震。距震中１０ｋｍ以内的河源黄子洞地电台记录到了震前不同程度的地电阻率异常变化。采用距平法消除年变干扰后异常延续时间一般为３个月左右,电阻率异常下降幅度在１％左右。利用《指南》中的震兆异常信度分析法确认其异常信度后,利用模糊信息处理法对异常判定地震三要素进行了计算,结果与实际基本符合。     

Seismic Moment Tensor Resolution on a Local Scale: Simulated Rockburst and Mine-induced Seismic Events in the Kopanang Gold Mine, South Africa

Seismic records contain information about the effect of the source as well as the effect of wave propagation through the rock mass. The effect of wave propagation is usually not well known as only simplified models of geological structures are available. Therefore, the information about the source retrieved by inverting seismograms may include errors due to incomplete knowledge of the rock mass along the propagation path, which in turn cause a distortion in the calculated moment tensor (MT). The distortion of the MT on a local scale was observed by inverting records of a simulated rockburst conducted at the Kopanang gold mine in South Africa. A dominant isotropic component of the explosive characteristics was found from the inversion. The deviatoric components retrieved from the blast are spurious. A test of their stability indicated that they are not significant, assuming an uncertainty above 5% for velocities and 10% for attenuation within the homogeneous model available for the mine. Thus, the retrieval of the MT from records of local networks in mines using a homogeneous model of the rock mass seems to be feasible. However, the homogeneous model of the rock mass can only be applied to close stations, within a few kilometers of the source. The seismic records from distant stations were too complex to be modelled by a homogeneous rock mass. Records of six mine-induced seismic events recorded at the Kopanang gold mine were also inverted. A vertical linear dipole along the pressure (P) axis was found for three of the events, suggesting a pillar burst. The mechanism of two events contains an isotropic implosion together with a nearly vertical dip-slip, and seems to indicate a combination of a cavity collapse with a down dip-slip along a nearly vertical fault. One event corresponds to a dipole along the tensional (T) axis. However, it is vertical, thus its association with tensile faulting of the hangingwall is uncertain.     

物理实验中的不确定度评定

阐述了不确定度的定义、来源、分类及用不确定度评定测量结果的一些表示方法。分析了误差和不确定度的区别。最终给出了测量不确定度的评定。