Stochastic modelling of groundwater flow and solute transport in aquifers

This paper presents an introductory overview of recently developed stochastic theories for tackling spatial variability problems in predicting groundwater flow and solute transport. Advantages and limitations of the theories are discussed. Lastly, strategies based on the stochastic approaches to predict solute transport in aquifers are recommended.     

Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Holocene great earthquakes and relative sea‐level change at Kenai,southern Alaska

Kenai, located on the west coast of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, subsided during the great earthquake of AD 1964. Regional land subsidence is recorded within the estuarine stratigraphy as peat overlain by tidal silt and clay. Reconstructions using quantitative diatom transfer functions estimate co‐seismic subsidence (relative sea‐level rise) between 0.28±0.28 m and 0.70±0.28 m followed by rapid post‐seismic recovery. Stratigraphy records an earlier co‐seismic event as a second peat‐silt couplet, dated to ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP with 1.14±0.28 m subsidence. Two decimetre‐scale relative sea‐level rises are more likely the result of glacio‐isostatic responses to late Holocene and Little Ice Age glacier expansions rather than to co‐seismic subsidence during great earthquakes. Comparison with other sites around Cook Inlet, at Girdwood and Ocean View, helps in constructing regional patterns of land‐level change associated with three great earthquakes, AD 1964, ～950–850 cal. yr BP and ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP. Each earthquake has a different spatial pattern of co‐seismic subsidence which indicates that assessment of seismic hazard in southern Alaska requires an understanding of multiple great earthquakes, not only the most recent. All three earthquakes show a pre‐seismic phase of gradual land subsidence that marked the end of relative land uplift caused by inter‐seismic strain accumulation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

WEKU – a GIS-Supported stochastic model of groundwater residence times in upper aquifers for the supraregional groundwater management

 The supraregional GIS-supported stochastical model, WEKU, for the determination of groundwater residence times in the upper aquifers of large groundwater provinces is presented. Using a two-dimensional analytical model of groundwater flow, groundwater residence times are determined within two extreme cases. In the first case, maximal groundwater residence times are calculated, representing the part of groundwater, that is drained by the main surface water of a groundwater catchment area. In the second case, minimal groundwater residence times for drainage into the nearest surface water are determined. Using explicit distribution functions of the input parameters, mean values as well as potential ranges of variations of the groundwater residence times are derived. The WEKU model has been used for the determination of groundwater residence times throughout Germany. The model results – mean values and deviations of the groundwater velocity and the maximal and minimal groundwater residence times in the upper aquifers – are presented by general maps and discussed in detail. It is shown that the groundwater residence times in the upper aquifer vary regionally, differentiated between less than 1 year and more than 2000 years. Using this information, the time scales can be specified, until measures to remediate polluted groundwater resources may lead to a substantial groundwater quality improvement in the different groundwater provinces of Germany. With respect to its supraregional scale of application, the WEKU model may serve as a useful tool for the supraregional groundwater management on a state, federal or international level. Received: 15 August 1995 · Accepted: 15 October 1995     

Subtidal sea level and current variations in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay

Analyses of sea level and current-meter data using digital filters and a variety of statistical methods show a variety of phenomena related to non-local coastal forcing and local tidal forcing in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay, a partially mixed estuary. Low-frequency variations in sea level are dominated by non-local variations in coastal sea level and also show a smaller influence from tidally induced fortnightly sea level variations. Low-frequency currents demonstrate a gravitational circulation which is modified by changes in tidal-current speed over the spring-neap tidal cycle. Transients in gravitational circulation induce internal oscillations with periods of two to four days.     

Nutrients and zooplankton composition and dynamics in relation to the hydrological pattern in a confined Mediterranean salt marsh (NE Iberian Peninsula)

The role of the hydrological regime in the nutrients and zooplankton composition and dynamics has been analysed in five lagoons of La Pletera salt marshes (NE Iberian Peninsula) during a complete hydrological cycle (2002–2003). Two of the lagoons have their origin in the old river mouths while the other three were recently created in the framework of a Life Restoration project. This fact has also allowed us to study the effect of the lagoon age on nutrient and zooplankton composition and dynamics. The salt marsh hydrology is determined by a prolonged period of confinement without water inputs, irregularly interrupted by sudden water inputs due to flooding events (sea storms or intense rainfalls). While the dynamics of oxidized nitrogen compounds in the lagoons depends on the water inputs variability within each hydrological cycle, the internal load of phosphorus, total nitrogen and organic matter is related more to the cumulative mechanisms during the confinement periods. Accumulation processes may be easily related to lagoon age, since old lagoons have higher content of nutrients and organic matter, suggesting that these lagoons progressively accumulate nutrients during the successive confinement events. This is the usual case for most Mediterranean salt marshes without an artificially manipulated water regime. The zooplankton community in La Pletera integrates the effects of both the hydrological regime and the lagoon age since the former determines the temporal pattern of the main zooplankton species and the latter explains differences in composition and structure between old and new lagoons.     

Vertical Sound Velocity Transition in the Coral Reef Core and Its Significance of Indicating Facies

On the basis of the sound velocity measurements of the coral reef core from Nanyong No.1 well of Yongshu Reef in the Nansha Islands,the paper studies the relations between the vertical sound velocity transition features in the coral reef core and the corresponding stratigraphic depositional facies change as well as stratigraphic gap of erosion,analyses the cause of the sound velocity transition,expounds the concrete process of the sea level change resulting in the stratigraphic gap of erosion and facies change in the coral reef and explains the relations between the vertical sound velocity transition in the coral reef core and the corresponding stratigraphic paleoclimate and the sea level change.This study is of important practical value and theoretical significance to the island and reef engineering construction and the acoustic logging for oil exploration in the reef limestone area as well as the paleoceanographic study of the marginal sea in the westerm Pacific Ocean.     

对我国西南地区河谷深厚覆盖层成因机理的新认识

近年来,在我国水能资源开发过程中,发现各河流现代河床以下普遍堆积厚达数十米甚至上百米的松散堆积物。河谷深厚覆盖层的存在,不仅严重制约了工程坝址的选择,影响相关流域水电资源的开发利用,也给坝工设计带来巨大的困难。由于深厚覆盖层埋藏于现代河床之下,其形成年代一般先于一二级阶地,有悖于河流发育演化的常理,其成因一直令人费解。首次将河谷深切和深厚堆积事件与全球气候变化、海平面升降运动、地壳运动等有机地联系起来,并提出冰期、间冰期全球海平面大幅度升降,是导致河流深切成谷并形成深厚堆积的主要原因的新观点。在此基础上,引入层序地层学原理,从理论上较好地解释了全球气候变化导致海平面和河流侵蚀基准面大幅变化,并产生河谷深切和深厚堆积的原因和过程。最后,进一步将沿河大型古滑坡的孕育和发生与河谷深切事件相联系,提出沿河大型古滑坡是在河谷深切期因前缘临空较好而形成的新观点,从而对沿河古滑坡前缘剪出口高程往往低于现代河床数十米的原因给出了较合理的解释。     

Application of environmental groundwater tracers at the Sulphur Bank Mercury Mine, California, USA

Boron, chloride, sulfate, δD, δ¹⁸O, and ³H concentrations in surface water and groundwater samples from the Sulphur Bank Mercury Mine (SBMM), California, USA were used to examine geochemical processes and provide constraints on evaporation and groundwater flow. SBMM is an abandoned sulfur and mercury mine with an underlying hydrothermal system, adjacent to Clear Lake, California. Results for non-³H tracers (i.e., boron, chloride, sulfate, δD, and δ¹⁸O) identify contributions from six water types at SBMM. Processes including evaporation, mixing, hydrothermal water input and possible isotopic exchange with hydrothermal gases are also discerned. Tritium data indicate that hydrothermal waters and other deep groundwaters are likely pre-bomb (before ~1952) in age while most other waters were recharged after ~1990. A boron-based steady-state reservoir model of the Herman Impoundment pit lake indicates that 71–79% of its input is from meteoric water with the remainder from hydrothermal contributions. Results for groundwater samples from six shallow wells over a 6–month period for δD and δ¹⁸O suggests that water from Herman Impoundment is diluted another 3% to more than 40% by infiltrating meteoric water, as it leaves the site. Results for this investigation show that environmental tracers are an effective tool to understand the SBMM hydrogeologic regime.

---

Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

---

Résumé Les concentrations en bore, chlorure, sulfate, δD, δ¹⁸O, et ³H d’échantillons d’eaux de surface et souterraine prélevés dans le banc de soufre de la mine de mercure (SBMM en anglais) en Californie, USA, ont été utilisées pour étudier les processus géochimiques et pour fournir des contraintes à l’évaporation et à l’écoulement des eaux souterraines. La SBMM est une mine de soufre et de mercure abandonnée, adjacente au lac Clear en Californie et sous laquelle se trouve un système hydrothermal.Les résultats des traceurs autres que le tritium (bore, chlorure, sulfate, δD, et δ¹⁸O) ont permis d’identifier des contributions de six types d’eaux à SBMM. Des processus tels que l’évaporation, le mélange, l’entrée d’eau hydrothermale et de possibles échanges isotopiques avec des gaz hydrothermaux ont également été identifiés. Les données de tritium montrent que les eaux hydrothermales et d’autres eaux profondes sont probablement d’age antérieure à la bombe (avant ~1952), alors que la plupart des autres eaux sont issues de la recharge après ~1990. Un modèle de réservoir représentant le lac situé dans la partie Herman Impoundment de l’ancienne mine, en régime permanent et basé sur le bore, montre que 71–79% de l’eau provient des précipitations, le reste provenant de contributions hydrothermales. Les résultats de δD et δ¹⁸O pour des échantillons d’eau souterraine de six puits peu profonds sur une période de 6 mois suggèrent que l’eau de Hermann Impoundment est encore diluée entre 3% jusqu’à plus de 40% lorsqu’elle quitte le site du fait de l’infiltration d’eau météorique. Les résultats de cette étude montrent que les traceurs environnementaux constituent un outil efficace pour comprendre le régime hydrogéologique de la SBMM.

---

Resumen Se han utilizado datos de concentraciones de boro, cloruros, sulfatos, δD, δ¹⁸O, y ³H en muestras de aguas superficiales y subterráneas procedentes de la Mina de Mercurio Sulphur Bank (SBMM), California, USA, para estudiar los procesos geoquímicos y caracterizar la evaporación y el flujo del agua subterránea. SBMM es una mina abandonada de azufre y mercurio con un sistema hidrotermal subyacente, cercano al Lago Clear, California.Los resultados de los trazadores que no son ³H (por ejemplo, boro, cloruros, sulfatos δD, y δ¹⁸O) identifican las contribuciones de seis tipos de agua en la SBMM. Se han identificado diversos procesos, como evaporación, mezcla, entrada de agua hidrotermal y la posibilidad de intercambios isotópicos con gases hidrotermales. Los datos de tritio indican que las aguas hidrotermales y otras aguas subterráneas profundas son probablemente pre-bombas (previas a ~1952) en edad mientras que la mayoría de las otras aguas se han recargado después de ~1990. Un modelo estacionario basado en el boro de la fosa del lago Herman Impoundment indica que el 71–79% de su entrada procede de agua meteórica con restos de contribución hidrotermal. Los resultados para las muestras de aguas subterráneas procedentes de seis pozos superficiales en un periodo de 6 meses para δD y δ¹⁸O sugieren que el agua procedente de Herman Impoundment se diluye en otro 3% hasta más del 40% debido a la infiltración de agua meteórica., que sale del sitio. Los resultados de esta investigación muestran que los trazadores ambientales son una herramienta efectiva para entender el régimen hidrogeológico de la SBMM.

     

Groundwater resources in the Jabal Al Hass region,northwest Syria: an assessment of past use and future potential

In many cases, the development of groundwater resources to boost agricultural production in dry areas has led to a continuous decline in groundwater levels; this has called into question the sustainability of such exploitation. In developing countries, limited budgets and scarce hydrological data often do not allow groundwater resources to be assessed through groundwater modeling. A case study is presented of a low-cost water-balance approach to groundwater resource assessments in a 1,550 km² semi-arid region in northwestern Syria. The past development of irrigated agriculture and its effect on the groundwater system were studied by analysis of Landsat images and long-term groundwater level changes, respectively. All components of the groundwater balance were determined. Groundwater recharge was estimated using the chloride mass balance method. Over the past three decades, groundwater levels have declined, on average, 23 m, coinciding with a two-fold increase in the groundwater-irrigated area. Groundwater resources are currently depleted by a value that lies between 9.5×10⁶ and 118×10⁶ m³ year^?1, which is larger than can be compensated for by a future decrease in natural discharge or changes in boundary conditions. However, groundwater resources are likely to be sufficient to supply domestic and livestock needs in the area.