Identification of physical processes inherent in artificial neural network rainfall runoff models

The emergence of artificial neural network (ANN) technology has provided many promising results in the field of hydrology and water resources simulation. However, one of the major criticisms of ANN hydrologic models is that they do not consider/explain the underlying physical processes in a watershed, resulting in them being labelled as black‐box models. This paper discusses a research study conducted in order to examine whether or not the physical processes in a watershed are inherent in a trained ANN rainfall‐runoff model. The investigation is based on analysing definite statistical measures of strength of relationship between the disintegrated hidden neuron responses of an ANN model and its input variables, as well as various deterministic components of a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model. The approach is illustrated by presenting a case study for the Kentucky River watershed. The results suggest that the distributed structure of the ANN is able to capture certain physical behaviour of the rainfall‐runoff process. The results demonstrate that the hidden neurons in the ANN rainfall‐runoff model approximate various components of the hydrologic system, such as infiltration, base flow, and delayed and quick surface flow, etc., and represent the rising limb and different portions of the falling limb of a flow hydrograph. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hysteresis‐based analysis of overland metal transport

Introducing a concept of equivalent mass depth of flow, this study describes the phenomenon of non‐point source pollutant (metal) transport for pavement (or overland) flow in analogy with wave propagation in wide open channels. Hysteretic and normal mass rating curves are developed for runoff rate and mass of 12 dissolved and particulate‐bound metal elements (pollutants) using the rainfall‐runoff and water quality data of the 15 × 20 m² instrumented pavement in Cincinnati, USA. Normal mass rating curves developed for easy computation of pollutant load are found to be of a form similar to Manning's, which is valid for open channel flows. Based on the hysteresis analysis, wave types for dissolution and mixing of particulate‐bound metals are identified. The analysis finds that the second‐order partial‐differential equation normally used for metal transport does not have the efficacy to describe fully the strong non‐linear phenomena such as is described for various metal elements by dynamic waves. In addition, the proportionality concept of the popular SCS‐CN concept is extended for determining the potential maximum metal mass M_p of all the 12 elements transported by a rain storm and related to the antecedent dry period (ADP). For the primary metal zinc element, M_p is found to increase with the ADP and vice versa. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental impacts from mining at Taojiang Mn ore deposit, central Hunan, China

The Taojiang Mn ore deposit was exploited in the early 1960s, and waste rocks were developed since then. Because the Mn ores were hosted within the metal-enriched black shales （Peng et al., 2004）, the continuous mining has led to the exposure of an immense quality of black shales, which might cause serious impacts on environments. The present study deals with this environmental issue with samples from the waste rocks, and from the surrounding soils and surface water. The mineralogy of the waste rock was studied using EMPA, then a large number of elements in all waste rock, soil, and water samples were analyzed at a wide range of concentrations with high accuracy using an Elan6000 ICP-MS machine at Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The waste rock is composed mostly of black shales, with minor Mn carbonates. Both black shales and Mn carbonates of the waste rock contain many sulfide minerals, mainly pyrite, with minor galena, sphalerite, chalcopyrite, and others. The waste rocks are enriched in many metals including Sc, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn, Pb, Th, U, Mo, Sb, Sn, Tl, and others, and the metals are mostly hosted within the sulfides. Weathering of waste rocks might cause emission of the following metals： V, Cd, Ni, Th, U, Mo, Sb, Tl, Sc, Cr, Cu, Zn, Sn, and minor Co, and Pb. The surrounding soils are highly enriched in Cr, Co, Cu, Zn, Mn, Mo, Cd, Tl, and Pb, with the enrichment factors of 2.67.3.8, 7.26, 7.27, 8.2, 5.7, 13, and 5.4, respectively. The element ratios （Rb/Cs, Fe/Mn, Nb/Zr, Hf/Zr, and Ba/Sr） and REE distribution patterns of the soils are similar to those of the waste rocks and bedrocks.     

Heavy metal contamination in the sediment of the Second Songhua River

The Second Songhua River was subjected to a large amount of untreated effluent from petrochemical industries in Jilin City in the 1960s to the 1970s. The objectives of this study were to investigate the mercury and other heavy metal contamination in the sediment of the river. The river bottom sediment was sampled from the river segment between Jilin City to Haerbin City in 2005. Total concentrations of Hg, Cd, Cu, Cr, Pb, Zn, Ni, As, Sc, and major cations （A1, Fe, Mg, Ca, K, Na） in the sediment were measured by atomic fluorescence spectrometer, ICP-MS, and ICP-OES, respectively, following digestion with various acids. We found the concentrations of most elements in the uncontaminated sediment were significantly correlated to those of Sc.     

An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.     

A Laboratory and Theoretical Study on the Uptake of SO2 Gas by Large and Small Water Drops Containing Heavy Metal Ions

Laboratory experiments have been carried out to investigate the uptake of sulfur dioxide by water drops containing heavy metal ions where the metal ions serve as catalysts to oxidise the taken up S(IV) into S(VI). During the gas uptake the drops were freely suspended at their terminal velocity in the airstream of the Mainz vertical wind tunnel. Two series of experiments were carried out, one with large millimeter size water drops containing manganese or iron ions, and the other with small water drops containing manganese ions and having radii in hundreds of micron size range. The experimental results were compared against model computations using the Kronig–Brink model and the fully mixed model, modified for the case that heavy metal ions present in the liquid phase act as catalysts for the oxidising process. The results of the model calculations show that there are only small differences between the predicted gas uptake according to the two models. In addition it was found that the experimental obtained results from the uptake of SO₂ by water drops containing heavy metal ions for both, large and small water drops did agree with the model results.     

月降水量的神经网络混合预报模型研究

以均生函数表征预报量自身周期变化，结合500hPa月平均高度场和月平均海温场预报因子，采用神经网络方法建立了一种新的短期气候预报模型。分别以广西桂北、桂中和桂南6月降水量作为预报对象进行预报试验，结果表明，这种新的预报方法比均生函数回归预报模型及高度场、海温场预报因子的回归预报模型，具有更好的物理基础和预报能力。     

1991年江淮暴雨时期的能量和水汽循环研究

通过对 1991年 5～ 7月江淮暴雨期全球范围的水汽输送和不同降水过程中江淮暴雨区及其临近区域的水汽收支和视热源和视水汽汇的计算分析得到了以下结论 :( 1)从水汽输送的机制来看 ,一方面 ,有大量的水汽以定常涡动的方式从孟加拉湾及南海输送到中国江淮地区 ;另一方面 ,江淮地区的瞬变涡动水汽向北输出 ,这可能与江淮地区频繁活动的α和β中尺度系统有关 ,它们将江淮地区汇集的充沛的水汽除了大部分以降水形式降下外 ,剩余部分继续向水汽较少的高纬地区输出 ,以维持全球水汽的平衡。( 2 )在降水过程中 ,局地蒸发项在水汽的供应中或再循环中十分重要 ,其数值一般为降水量的 13 ～ 12 ,这与1998年的降水情况相似。( 3 )在降水过程中 ,暴雨区的水汽主要是从南边界和西边界流入的 ,东边界和北边界则流出 ,并且水汽的流入、流出主要在中低层进行。 (a)在流入边界上 ,水汽通量的垂直分布存在差异 ,暴雨区西边界和南边界的水汽流入的垂直差异可能与其所在的地理位置有密切关系。 (b)对于暴雨区 ,不同强度的降水过程水汽的主要来源有所不同。( 4)在 5次降水过程中 ,视热源和视水汽汇的较大值对应降水的大值区 ,表明了水汽凝结加热对大气加热所起的主要作用。梅雨期降水 ,以对流性降水为主 ,对流活动随季节变化