山岳型旅游区人文建筑环境后效与调控模型

许多山岳型旅游区内或其流域上游，都建有人文建筑，而且在急剧增多，导致自然环境日趋恶化，其中乱建疗养院和旅馆的影响最为严重。通过地监测并全面分析张家界环境演变趋势，发现住宿施对环境的影响，比其他游乐设施更为明显。张家界国家森林公园生态环境的脆弱因子是金鞭溪水质。金鞭溪水质恶化主要表现为蓝藻，绿藻迅速繁殖，感官质量下降。主要原因是磷污染较重，总磷年均值100%超标。本文提出了基于环境脆弱因子的动态阈值调控模型，通过计算得出：在不超出张家界景区最为脆弱的环境因子-金鞭溪水质标准：总磷≤0.02前提下，金鞭溪上游接待区住宿设施生态阈值的动态系列：春季临界床位数为1186，夏季为3057，冬季为545，秋季为333。目前的建筑规模已超过了金鞭溪上游接待区住宿设施生态阈值。     

中国海相碳酸盐岩评价中有关有机质丰度下限的几点讨论

综述了中国海相碳酸盐岩有机质下限研究的若干进展,认为针对不同需求,应提出碳酸盐岩烃源岩最低下限、有效烃源岩下限、战略选区下限3个不同的下限标准。高成熟碳酸盐岩原始有机质丰度恢复一直存在争议,根据生烃动力学,结合热史,可实现原始有机质总量的恢复。碳酸盐岩中泥质与有机质丰度、排烃能力是否相关仍存在争论,认为碳酸盐岩中泥质的作用仍有待进一步研究。     

地下空间逾渗与裂缝属性的关系分析

裂缝连通性评价是地下空间研究的重要内容。逾渗分析是研究裂缝网络连通性的一种有效手段。裂缝网络逾渗临界值多使用裂缝间接表征参数(如分形维数)来确定,但存在裂缝网络连通性不同却有相同间接表征参数的情况,这降低了预测的可靠性。为避免此类问题并更加准确快速地表征裂缝网络的连通性,文章在构建逾渗临界值方程时,摒弃了间接参数简化的方式,使用裂缝直接表征参数(如裂缝数量、长度等)进行非线性拟合。通过二维数值模拟建立不同参数的离散裂缝网络模型,分析逾渗低、中、高概率临界条件与裂缝直接表征参数的关系,建立逾渗临界条件预测方程,并对方程在不同尺度研究区的应用进行了讨论和验证。结果表明：预测方程可有效地预测不同概率的逾渗临界值。同时文章在预测方程的基础上,建立了裂缝网络连通性评价标准,这对于裂缝发育地区的地下空间评价工作具有一定的指导和借鉴意义。     

冰雹云雷达回波自动识别系统

利用CAPPI资料对立体风暴进行识别，计算并提供出实用的风暴结构参数，采用矩心踊跃法和矩不变量法相结合对单体风暴和混合性风暴回波进行跟踪；最小二第线性外推预报；根据WSD－88D的冰雹算法，在风暴结构基础上本文建立了Windows98操作平台上冰雹识别系统，经单站1年11次强对流天气过程的资料检验，结果表明：雹云识别精度达82％。系统建立了大量人机对话框以方便用户，增加实用性及推广性。     

基于洪峰模数的山洪灾害雨量预警指标研究

山洪灾害预警是防御山洪的重要非工程措施,雨量预警指标是山洪灾害预警的关键。目前的雨量预警指标计算方法对水文气象资料条件以及模型建模率定都有很高的要求,并不适用于基层防汛人员。因此,本文基于全国山洪灾害调查评价成果数据,提出了一种运用洪峰模数计算雨量预警指标的简便、易用的方法。该方法以小流域洪水计算推理公式为基础,将公式中流量与流域面积的比值用洪峰模数表示,得到基于洪峰模数的临界雨量估算公式,并考虑流域土壤含水量等因素,分析临界雨量变化阈值,最终得到雨量预警指标。本文以云南省绥江县双河小流域为例,计算结果显示不同时段（1 h、3 h、6 h）净雨量和预警时段呈线性关系。降雨损失计算中洼地蓄水和植被截留在不同时段相同,土壤下渗在不同的时段不相同。在此基础上,计算不同土壤含水量条件下,不同时段的雨量预警指标。最后,对临界流量、降雨损失和预警指标进行了合理性分析,结果显示预警指标和调查评价结果及实测降雨都比较接近,计算的预警指标合理。本研究为基层山洪灾害预警提供了一种快速、便捷的预警指标计算方法,为预警指标计算提供技术支持。     

Piecewise prediction model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events on the Loess Plateau,China

Establishing a universal watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield prediction model represents a frontier field in erosion and soil/water conservation. The research presented here was conducted on the Chabagou watershed, which is located in the first sub‐region of the hill‐gully area of the Loess Plateau, China. A back‐propagation artificial neural model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield was established, with the accuracy of the model, then compared with that of multiple linear regression. The sensitivity degree of various factors to erosion and sediment yield was quantitatively analysed using the default factor test. On the basis of the sensitive factors and the fractal information dimension, the piecewise prediction model for erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events was established and further verified. The results revealed the back‐propagation artificial neural network model to perform better than the multiple linear regression model in terms of predicting the erosion modulus, with the former able to effectively characterize dynamic changes in sediment yield under comprehensive factor conditions. The sensitivity of runoff erosion power and runoff depth to the erosion and sediment yield associated with individual rainfall events was found to be related to the complexity of surface topography. The characteristics of such a hydrological response are thus closely related to topography. When the fractal information dimension is greater than the topographic threshold, the accuracy of prediction using runoff erosion power is higher than that of using runoff depth. In contrast, when the fractal information dimension is smaller than the topographic threshold, the accuracy of prediction using runoff depth is higher than that of using runoff erosion power. The developed piecewise prediction model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events, which introduces runoff erosion power and runoff depth using the fractal information dimension as a boundary, can be considered feasible and reliable and has a high prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

River centerline extraction using the multiple direction integration algorithm for mixed and pure water pixels

The river centerline is a basic hydrological characteristic. Most prior studies have used remote sensing data to extract the river centerline from the open water region in a pure water pixel region. Extracting this type of river is relatively easy. However, extracting the centerline of a micro-river, which is mainly composed of mixed water pixels, is challenging. This paper presents a novel method, called the Multiple Direction Integration Algorithm (MDIA), to extract the river centerline using an image-enhancing method combined with river morphology. MDIA can be applied to regions mainly composed of pure water pixels, as well as to regions consisting of mixed water pixels in the index image. The method first calculates the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhances the river linear structure using a Hessian matrix. Second, a small window is constructed as a circular structural element. In the window region, the local threshold is automatically obtained using water-oriented clustering segmentation and prior river knowledge to judge the pixel type. After completing the river centerline extraction in the current window, the next detecting window is generated to continue judgment. The structural element automatically executes river centerline judgment until the entire river centerline is extracted. The Landsat 8 images of six regions with different geomorphologies were chosen to analyze the method’s performance. The test sites include high mountain region, low mountain region, plains region with farmland and a residential region. The experimental results show that the optimal threshold of the processing results ranged from 0.2 to 0.3. In this range, the user’s accuracy is 0.813 to 0.997, and the producer’s accuracy is 0.981 to 1. The MDIA effectively and correctly extracts the river network in mixed-pixel regions. The presented method provides an effective algorithm for river centerline extraction that can be used to expand and update river datasets and provide reliable river centerline data for relevant hydrology studies.     

Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.     

The influence of 70 and 120 kHz tonal signals on the behavior of harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) in a floating pen

Two harbor porpoises in a floating pen were subjected to five pure tone underwater signals of 70 or 120kHz with different signal durations, amplitudes and duty cycles (% of time sound is produced). Some signals were continuous, others were intermittent (duty cycles varied between 8% and 100%). The effect of each signal was judged by comparing the animals' surfacing locations and number of surfacings (i.e. number of respirations) during test periods with those during baseline periods. In all cases, both porpoises moved away from the sound source, but the effect of the signals on respiration rates was negligible. Pulsed 70kHz signals with a source level (SL) of 137dB had a similar effect as a continuous 70kHz signal with an SL of 148dB (re 1muPa, rms). Also, a pulsed 70kHz signal with an SL of 147dB had a much stronger deterring effect than a continuous 70kHz signal with a similar SL. For pulsed 70kHz signals (2s pulse duration, 4s pulse interval, SL 147dB re 1muPa, rms), the avoidance threshold sound pressure level (SPL), in the context of the present study, was estimated to be around 130dB (re 1muPa, rms) for porpoise 064 and around 124dB (re 1muPa, rms) for porpoise 047. This study shows that ultrasonic pingers (70kHz) can deter harbor porpoises. Such ultrasonic pingers have the advantage that they do not have a "dinner bell" effect on pinnipeds, and probably have no, or less, effect on other marine fauna, which are often sensitive to low frequency sounds.     

长江河口潮波传播机制及阈值效应分析

河口潮波传播过程受沿程地形(如河宽辐聚、水深变化)及上游径流等诸多因素影响,时空变化复杂。径潮动力非线性相互作用研究有利于揭示河口潮波传播的动力学机制,对河口区水资源高效开发利用具有重要指导意义。本文基于2007—2009年长江河口沿程天生港、江阴、镇江、南京、马鞍山、芜湖的逐日高、低潮位数据及大通站日均流量数据,统计分析不同河段潮波衰减率与余水位坡度随流量的变化特征,结果表明潮波衰减率绝对值与余水位坡度随流量增大并不是单调递增,而是存在一个阈值流量和区域,对应潮波衰减效应的极大值。为揭示这一阈值现象,采用一维水动力解析模型对研究河段的潮波传播过程进行模拟。结果表明,潮波传播的阈值现象主要是由于洪季上游回水作用随流量加强,余水位及水深增大,导致河口辐聚程度减小,而余水位坡度为适应河口形状变化亦有所减小,从而形成相对应的阈值流量和区域。